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"Should You Get a Flu Shot? Your Physical and Financial Health Is on the Line" is the title of an article that appears in a blog on the WalletHub web site (December 20 , 2013, wallethub.com/blog/flu-shot-survey/1303/, retrieved September 25,2016 ). The author reported that an infectious disease expert from a top medical school in each of the 50 states was asked if he or she would recommend that the average person get a flu shot. Based on the 50 responses, it was reported that \(94 \%\) would recommend a flu shot. a. Suppose that the purpose of this survey was to estimate the percentage of all doctors who would recommend a flu shot. Would this sample be a simple random sample, a stratified sample, a systematic sample, or a convenience sample? Explain. b. Explain why an estimate of the percentage who would recommend a flu shot that was based on data from this sample should not be generalized to all doctors.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The survey used a convenience sample, as infectious disease experts from each of the 50 states were selected without any specific randomization method or population division. The sample estimate of 94% recommending flu shots should not be generalized to all doctors because convenience samples can lead to biases and may not accurately represent the entire population. Additionally, the surveyed experts from top medical schools might have different opinions compared to doctors in other fields or institutions.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the different types of sampling methods

There are several types of sampling methods: 1. Simple random sample: A sample where every member of the population has an equal chance of being selected. 2. Stratified sample: A sample where the population is divided into subgroups (or strata), and a simple random sample is drawn from each subgroup. 3. Systematic sample: A sample where every \(k^{th}\) member of the population is selected. 4. Convenience sample: A sample where the members are selected based on their availability and easy access.
02

Identify the sampling method used in this survey

In this survey, an infectious disease expert from each of the 50 states was asked if they would recommend a flu shot. We can see that the population is not divided into subgroups, and there is no specific pattern or random selection method mentioned in the survey. Therefore, this sample can be best described as a convenience sample.
03

Explain why the sample estimate cannot be generalized

The sample estimate of 94% in favor of flu shots is based on a convenience sample, which has limitations when it comes to generalizing the results. The main reason is that convenience samples can lead to biases and may not accurately represent the entire population since the experts in the survey might not represent the opinions of all doctors. Moreover, the survey only included infectious disease experts from top medical schools, which might also create a bias, as the opinions of these experts might differ from those of other doctors in different fields or from different institutions. In conclusion, the estimate of 94% of doctors recommending a flu shot cannot be generalized to all doctors due to the limitations and potential biases in the sampling method used in this survey.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Convenience Sample
The concept of a convenience sample is one where individuals are selected based primarily on their accessibility and proximity to the researcher. In the context of the flu shot survey, the process involved selecting infectious disease experts from each state without implementing a random sampling method.
This approach was likely chosen for its ease and efficiency, as the experts were readily available contacts within top medical schools. However, it's important to note that this method can introduce several limitations.
  • Convenience samples do not necessarily represent the entire population because not all demographic or professional backgrounds are equally accessible to the researchers.
  • There is a risk of collecting biased data since the researchers might only gather opinions from a subset of the population that they can easily reach.
Despite its practicality for quick and preliminary studies, a convenience sample's representativeness is often questionable, making it difficult to confidently extrapolate the results to a larger population.
Simple Random Sample
A simple random sample is a method designed to ensure that every individual within a population has an equal chance of being selected for the sample.
This type of sampling is highly valued because it tends to reduce selection bias and often results in a representative subset of the larger group. If the flu shot survey had been a simple random sample, it would mean that all doctors, regardless of their specialty or institution, had equal opportunity to share their opinion.
The process to achieve a simple random sample often involves listing every member of a population and then randomly selecting individuals from this list. Methods to select participants might include using computer-generated random numbers or drawing names from a hat. Since every participant is equally likely to be chosen, this method helps in producing reliable and generalized conclusions about the entire population, unlike convenience sampling, which lacks such balance. This characteristic makes it the gold standard when aiming to obtain unbiased results.
Bias in Sampling
Bias in sampling refers to systematic errors that produce results not representative of the whole population. The flu shot survey introduced potential bias by limiting responses to infectious disease experts in top medical schools only.
This introduction of bias occurs when each group in a population does not have an equal chance of being represented. Such bias can manifest through under-representation or over-representation of particular groups. In this specific survey:
  • There's an over-representation of academic experts, possibly under-representing views of practitioners from other fields or institutions.
  • There's an inherent limitation due to subject specialization, which can skew the overall findings.
This bias limits the accuracy and applicability of the conclusions drawn, particularly if the intent was to generalize the percentage of all doctors endorsing the flu shot. Correcting such biases often involves diversifying the sample source and employing random selection criteria.
Survey Method Limitations
Surveys, as research tools, have intrinsic limitations arising from sample selection and data collection methods. In the case of the flu shot survey, using a convenience sample introduced several constraints. Firstly, even though surveys can efficiently gather a lot of information, their validity depends on how well the sample represents the population. In this example, because the survey focused only on top medical school experts, its findings are less reliable for general doctors' opinions. This casts doubt on the applicability of the 94% recommendation statistic to all doctors nationwide. Secondly, the method does not account for variability in opinions due to geographic, institutional, or specialty differences among doctors. These factors significantly affect the generalizability of the results. Finally, perceptions in survey responses can be influenced by the participant's background or expectations set by the survey itself.
For these reasons, combining different sampling methods or ensuring more comprehensive sample coverage can enhance the value and reliability of survey outcomes.

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