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The probability that a patient recovers from a delicate heart operation is 0.9 . What is the probability that exactly 5 of the next 7 patients having this operation survive?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that exactly 5 of the next 7 patients having this operation survive is obtained by entering all the values into the binomial probability formula, calculating the necessary factorial and power operations and the final multiplication, and is approximately 0.266.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the parameters for the binomial distribution

In a binomial distribution the parameters are n (number of trials) and p (probability of success on each trial). In this case, n=7 (7 patients having the operation) and p=0.9 (probability that a patient recovers).
02

Use the binomial probability formula

The formula for the binomial probability of exactly k successes in n trials is given by: \( P(X=k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k(1-p)^{n-k} \) where \( \binom{n}{k} \) is the binomial coefficient expressed as \( \binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!} \) where ! is the factorial symbol. Substituting the values: \( \binom{7}{5} 0.9^5(1-0.9)^{7-5} \).
03

Calculate the factorials and then the binomial coefficient

First calculate the factorials: 7!=5040, 5!=120, (7-5)!=2. Then substitute the values into the binomial coefficient formula: \( \binom{7}{5} = \frac{5040}{120*2} = 21 \).
04

Substitute all the values into the binomial probability formula

Now, substitute the calculated binomial coefficient and the given probabilities into the binomial probability formula: \( P(X=5) = 21 * 0.9^5 * 0.1^2 \). After calculating the powers and multiplying all the results, you get the final probability.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Theory
Probability theory forms the basis of statistical concepts, especially when dealing with events and their likelihood. When we talk about probability, we're discussing the measure of the chance that a particular event will happen. It's expressed as a number between 0 and 1, where 0 signifies impossibility, and 1 denotes certainty.

The problem of predicting the number of successful operations among patients relates directly to probability theory. Here, the probability that a patient recovers from surgery is given as 0.9, meaning there's a 90% chance of recovery per operation. To determine the probability of exactly five patients surviving out of seven involves calculating the chances of this exact event happening repeatedly.

Key elements of probability, particularly in binomial distribution, include:
  • Random Variables: These represent outcomes of a random process. In our problem, the random variable could be the number of patients recovering.
  • Events: Outcomes we can measure, like each patient's surgery result.
  • Probability Function: Defines the likelihood of each possible outcome, governed here by the binomial formula.
Statistical Methods
Statistical methods offer us tools to make informed predictions and interpret data. In this context, we focus on the binomial distribution—a discrete probability distribution useful when there are two possible outcomes: success or failure.

For the problem at hand, we used statistical methods to determine the probability of exactly 5 out of 7 surgeries being successful. The parameters of binomial distribution include:
  • The number of trials (n), which represents the total number of surgeries: 7 in this instance.
  • Probability of success on an individual trial (p), which is 0.9 here.
  • Number of desired successes (k), specified as 5 successful surgeries.
The formula for binomial probability includes the combination function and powers of success and failure probabilities. It's a helpful statistical method to solve real-world problems involving repeated independent trials with constant probability.
Factorials
Factorials are a mathematical concept denoted by an exclamation mark (!), representing the product of all positive integers up to a particular number. In the context of binomial distribution, factorials help in computing combinations, which tell us how many ways we can choose successes from trials.

In our problem, to find out how many ways 5 successful operations can occur out of 7, we calculate the binomial coefficient using factorials:
  • The factorial for 7 (7!) is calculated as 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 5040.
  • The factorial for 5 (5!) is 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 120.
  • The factorial for 2 (2!), since 7 - 5 = 2, is 2 * 1 = 2.
The binomial coefficient is then calculated as \( \binom{7}{5} = \frac{5040}{120 \times 2} = 21 \), indicating there are 21 different series of recovery and failure among these 7 operations. Understanding factorials makes it easier to comprehend and solve problems dealing with permutations and combinations.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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