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In a controlled laboratory experiment, scientists at the University of Minnesota discovered that \(25 \%\) of a certain strain of rats subjected to a \(20 \%\) coffee bean diet and then force-fed a powerful cancer-causing chemical later developed cancerous tumors. Would we have reason to believe that the proportion of rats developing tumors when subjected to this diet has increased if the experiment were repeated and 16 of 48 rats developed tumors? Use a 0.05 level of significance.

Short Answer

Expert verified
No, the result of the experiment is not statistically significant to conclude that the proportion of rats developing tumors when subjected to this diet has increased.

Step by step solution

01

Formulate the Hypotheses

The null hypothesis (H_0) is that the proportion of rats developing tumors remains the same, i.e., 0.25. The alternative hypothesis (H_1) is that the proportion has increased i.e., greater than 0.25.
02

Collect and Summarize the Data

The experiment was repeated and 16 out of 48 rats developed tumors. So the sample proportion (p虃) is 16/48 = 0.333.
03

Conduct the Hypothesis Test

To carry out the test, we'll use the Z test for proportions. The test statistic is given by: Z = (p虃 - p_0) / sqrt[(p_0*(1-p_0))/n], where p_0 is the proportion under the null hypothesis, p虃 is the sample proportion, and n is the sample size. Plugging in our values we get Z = (0.333 - 0.25) / sqrt[(0.25*(1-0.25))/48] = 1.16.
04

Make a Decision

Compare the obtained Z-value against the critical Z-value for the given level of significance (0.05). As per Z-table, the critical Z-value for a one-tailed test with 伪 = 0.05 is 1.645. Since our calculated Z-value (1.16) is less than the critical Z value (1.645), we fail to reject the null hypothesis.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Z Test for Proportions
A Z test for proportions is a statistical method used to determine if the proportion of a particular outcome is significantly different from a hypothesized proportion. It is appropriate when you want to compare the proportion of a specific outcome in a sample to a known proportion or to another sample's proportion.

The Z test is a type of hypothesis test - a way to infer if a certain condition is likely true for a whole population based on a sample. In our exercise, scientists are analysing if the proportion of rats that developed tumors from the coffee bean diet is significantly different from the previously observed rate of 25%.

The formula to calculate the Z statistic in the context of a proportion is:
\[\begin{equation} Z = \frac{(\hat{p} - p_0)}{\sqrt{\frac{(p_0(1-p_0))}{n}}} \end{equation}\]
Where \( \hat{p} \) is the sample proportion, \( p_0 \) is the null hypothesis' proposed proportion, and \( n \) is the sample size. Z scores reflect how many standard deviations away our sample proportion is from the hypothesized proportion under the null hypothesis.

To make the understanding of Z scores easier, they are usually looked up in a Z-table which shows the proportion of the standard normal distribution that lies below any given Z score. This test essentially checks the rarity of the sample statistic under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance is a concept used to determine whether the result of an experiment or study is likely to be due to chance or if it reflects a true effect in the population.

In hypothesis testing, we set a significance level (denoted as 伪), which is the probability threshold below which we will reject the null hypothesis. Common levels of significance are 0.05, 0.01, or 0.10, representing a 5%, 1%, or 10% chance of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true (also known as a Type I error).

In our exercise, a 0.05 significance level means we are willing to accept a 5% chance of incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis. After calculating the Z statistic, we compare it against the critical Z value that corresponds to this significance level. If our Z statistic exceeds the critical Z value, it indicates that our findings are statistically significant 鈥 that is, unlikely to have occurred by chance given the null hypothesis is true.

It is pivotal to understand that statistical significance does not equate to practical significance. A statistically significant result may have little practical importance or effect size. Therefore, researchers must always weigh the significance level against the practical implications of their findings.
Null and Alternative Hypotheses
In hypothesis testing, the null (H鈧) and alternative (H鈧) hypotheses form the basis of any statistical test. The null hypothesis is a statement proposing no effect or no difference in the context of the study. It is the default position that there is no association between two measured phenomena.

The alternative hypothesis is what researchers are trying to provide evidence for; it is the hypothesis that there is an effect or a difference. Importantly, we never prove the alternative hypothesis; instead, we provide evidence against the null hypothesis.

In the context of our rat study, the null hypothesis claims the true proportion of rats developing tumors from the coffee bean diet is 25%, as previously observed (H鈧: p = 0.25). The alternative hypothesis contends this proportion has increased (H鈧: p > 0.25). The null hypothesis is what we test our data against, and it can only be rejected or not rejected based on the evidence from the sample data. If the evidence is strong enough to reject the null, then by default, we support the alternative hypothesis.

Remember, failing to reject the null does not mean we 'accept' it as true, only that there is not sufficient evidence to conclude a significant effect or difference.

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