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The average height of females in the freshman class of a certain college has been 162.5 centimeters with a standard deviation of 6.9 centimeters. Is there reason to believe that there has been a change in the average height if a random sample of 50 females in the present freshman class has an average height of 165.2 centimeters? Use a P-value in your conclusion. Assume the standard deviation remains the same

Short Answer

Expert verified
The conclusion depends on the P-value obtained after calculating it using the calculated Z score. If the P-value is less than or equal to 0.05, then there has been a significant change in the average height of females. If the P-value is greater than 0.05, then there's not enough evidence to suggest any significant change.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the Standard Error

The standard error (SE) can be calculated using the formula SE = \(\sigma/\sqrt{n}\). Here, \(\sigma = 6.9\) is the standard deviation and \(n = 50\) is the sample size. Therefore, SE = \(6.9/\sqrt{50}\).
02

Calculate the Test Statistic

The test statistic (Z) can be found with the formula \(Z = \frac{\overline{X} - \mu}{SE}\). Here, \(\overline{X} = 165.2\) is the sample mean and \(\mu = 162.5\) is the population mean which was calculated in the previous step. Therefore, the Z score is equal to \(Z = \frac{165.2 - 162.5}{SE}\).
03

Find the P-value

Since our test is two-tailed, we want to find the probability that a Z score is more extreme (either more positive or more negative) than the one we found. This is done by looking up the Z score in a standard normal table or using a relevant function in a statistical calculator or software to get the P-value.
04

Draw a conclusion

In the final step, the P-value is compared to the significance level (usually 0.05). If P-value ≤ 0.05, we reject the null hypothesis, implying there's evidence of a change in the average height. If the P-value > 0.05, we fail to reject the null hypothesis, meaning there's no significant evidence of a change in the height.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Standard Error
The standard error is a measure that reflects the amount of variation or "spread" in sample means around the population mean. When we draw a sample from a population, the sample mean is not always guaranteed to be exactly equal to the population mean. The standard error helps us understand how much our sample mean might deviate from the true population mean.

It is calculated using the formula:
  • \[SE = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\]
Here, \(\sigma\) is the standard deviation of the population, and \(n\) is the sample size.
In our exercise example, with a standard deviation of 6.9 cm and a sample size of 50, the standard error helps assess the reliability of our sample mean as an estimate of the population mean.
Test Statistic
The test statistic is a standardized value that helps us determine how far away our sample statistic, like a sample mean, is from the hypothesized population parameter, such as a population mean. It serves as a bridge between your sample data and implementation of the hypothesis test.

To find the test statistic, you use the formula:
  • \[Z = \frac{\overline{X} - \mu}{SE}\]
Where \(\overline{X}\) is the sample mean, \(\mu\) is the population mean, and \(SE\) is the standard error calculated previously.

This Z-score tells us how many standard errors away our sample mean is from the population mean. If the Z-score is large in magnitude, it suggests the sample mean is significantly different from the hypothesized population mean.
P-value
The P-value is an essential component in hypothesis testing that helps decide whether to reject the null hypothesis. It tells us the probability of obtaining a test statistic as extreme as, or more extreme than, the one computed from the sample data, under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true.

In other words, it indicates how likely it is to observe our sample results, or something more extreme, if there was actually no effect or difference. To interpret the P-value:
  • If the P-value is less than or equal to the significance level (commonly 0.05), it suggests strong evidence against the null hypothesis, prompting us to reject it.
  • If the P-value is greater than the significance level, there is insufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis.
In our context, finding a low P-value might suggest a change in the average height of freshman females.
Population Mean
The population mean is a central concept in statistics, representing the average of all possible values in a population. It is a theoretical measure that we assume based on available data or previous studies.

In our hypothesis test, the population mean is the value we compare the sample mean against to see if there has been a significant change.

It serves as the point of reference for calculations such as the test statistic, allowing us to quantify differences and assess significance. In the exercise, the historical population mean of heights at the college serves as the baseline for comparison with the current sample mean.

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