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It is claimed that an automobile is driven on the average more than 20,000 kilometers per year. To test this claim, a random sample of 100 automobile owners are asked to keep a record of the kilometers they travel. Would you agree with this claim if the random sample showed an average of 23,500 kilometers and a standard deyiation of 3900 kilometers? Use a P-value in your conclusion.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Yes, one would agree with the claim that an automobile is driven on average more than 20,000 km per year. This is because the P-value corresponding to our test statistic is less than the significant level of 0.05, which indicates strong evidence against the null hypothesis that the average mileage per year is 20,000 km.

Step by step solution

01

Identify a null hypothesis and an alternate hypothesis

The null hypothesis (\( H_0: \mu = 20,000 km \)) and the alternate hypothesis (\( H_a: \mu > 20,000 km \)).
02

Calculating test statistic (z-score)

The formula to calculate the z-score is \( z = (\overline{x} - \mu)/(s/\sqrt{n}) \), substituting the given values, \( z = (23,500 - 20,000)/(3900/\sqrt{100}) = 3.59 \).
03

Look up the P-value based on the test statistic

From the standard normal distribution table, the P-value associated with a z-score of 3.59 is very small, usually less than 0.05.
04

Decision

Because the P-value is less than 0.05, the decision is to reject the null hypothesis \( H_0: \mu = 20,000 km \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null and Alternative Hypothesis
When conducting hypothesis testing in statistics, it's crucial to begin by framing the question at hand in terms of null and alternative hypotheses. The null hypothesis, denoted as \( H_0 \), is the default assertion that there is no effect or no difference, and it acts as the starting point for statistical testing. In the case of our automobile example, \( H_0: \text{\mu} = 20,000 km \) suggests that the average distance driven per year is 20,000 kilometers.

The alternative hypothesis, written as \( H_a \) or \( H_1 \), represents what the researcher aims to prove - in this exercise, \( H_a: \text{\mu} > 20,000 km \), indicating the suspicion that the average distance is actually more than 20,000 kilometers annually. The framing of these hypotheses is the foundation for deciding which statistical test to use and how to interpret the results.
Test Statistic
The test statistic is a standardized value that is calculated from sample data during a hypothesis test. It measures how far the sample statistic, such as the sample mean, deviates from a null hypothesis's value. In the automobile mileage problem, the test statistic is a z-score calculated to compare the sample mean of 23,500 kilometers to the hypothesized population mean of 20,000 kilometers.

The formula to calculate the z-score is: \[ z = (\overline{x} - \text{\mu}) / (s / \sqrt{n}) \], where \( \overline{x} \) is the sample mean, \( \text{\mu} \) is the mean under the null hypothesis, \( s \) is the standard deviation of the sample, and \( n \) is the sample size. This standardization allows us to make probabilistic statements about where our sample lies in reference to the null hypothesis.
P-value
The P-value, or probability value, is a key concept in hypothesis testing. It's the probability of obtaining a test statistic as extreme as the observed one, or more extreme, if the null hypothesis were true. A small P-value suggests that the observed data is unlikely under the assumption of the null hypothesis, thus providing evidence against \( H_0 \).

In the automobile example, after calculating the z-score, you look up its corresponding P-value in the standard normal distribution tables. The smaller this P-value, the stronger the evidence to reject the null hypothesis. If it's less than your pre-determined significance level, typically 0.05, you reject \( H_0 \).
Standard Deviation
In statistics, the standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation or dispersion within a set of values. A low standard deviation means that the values tend to be close to the mean, while a high standard deviation indicates that the values are more spread out. This is pivotal because it gives context to the sample mean, helping to assess the variability in the data.

In our example, the standard deviation of the sample is 3,900 kilometers, indicating that individual annual distances driven by car owners vary around this value from the sample mean of 23,500 kilometers. This variability impacts the reliability of the test statistic and thus the conclusion of the hypothesis test.
Sample Mean
The sample mean, denoted as \( \overline{x} \), is simply the average of all the numbers in a sample. It's used to estimate the population mean, \( \text{\mu} \), when the population size is too large to measure each individual. The accuracy of this estimate depends on the size and representativeness of the sample.

In our scenario, the sample mean is the average yearly distance driven, which is 23,500 kilometers for the 100 automobile owners in the study. The sample mean is one of the key inputs into the calculation of the z-score in hypothesis testing.
Z-score
The z-score is a statistical measurement that describes a value's relationship to the mean of a group of values, expressed in terms of standard deviations. It is dimensionless and allows for comparison across different scales or units. In the context of hypothesis testing, the z-score is a form of the test statistic that follows a standard normal distribution.

For the car example, a z-score of 3.59 indicates that the sample mean is 3.59 standard deviations above the hypothesized population mean. This score is useful for determining how unusual or likely the sample result is under the null hypothesis.
Standard Normal Distribution
The standard normal distribution, also known as the z-distribution, is a special normal distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one. It is a key component in hypothesis testing as it provides a reference for interpreting the z-score.

When we calculate a z-score in hypothesis testing, we're positioning our sample statistic within the standard normal distribution. This allows us to assess P-values and make decisions regarding the null hypothesis. A z-score's corresponding P-value tells us how likely or unlikely our sample result is, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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