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Carry out a simulation experiment using a statistical computer package or other software to study the sampling distribution of \(\bar{X}\) when the population distribution is lognormal with \(E(\ln (X))=3\) and \(V(\ln (X))=1\). Consider the four sample sizes \(n=10,20,30\), and 50 , and in each case use 1000 replications. For which of these sample sizes does the \(\bar{X}\) sampling distribution appear to be approximately normal?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The sampling distribution of \(\bar{X}\) is approximately normal for sample sizes \(n=30\) and \(n=50\).

Step by step solution

01

Specify the Lognormal Distribution Parameters

Given \(E(\ln(X)) = 3\) and \(V(\ln(X)) = 1\), we can deduce the parameters of the lognormal distribution. Let \(\mu = 3\) and \(\sigma^2 = 1\), where \(\mu\) and \(\sigma^2\) are the mean and variance of the normal distribution that underlies the lognormal distribution. These will be the parameters for the normal distribution from which \(X\) is derived.
02

Generate Random Samples

For the specified sample sizes \(n = 10, 20, 30, 50\), generate random samples from a lognormal distribution with the specified parameters. In a statistical software package, use these lognormal parameters (converted from the normal distribution parameters) to simulate the data.
03

Calculate Sample Means

For each sample size \(n\), calculate the sample mean \(\bar{X}\) for each of the 1000 replications. This provides us with 1000 sample means for each sample size.
04

Analyze the Sampling Distribution

Plot histograms or kernel density plots of the 1000 sample means for each sample size. Visually inspect the plots and use statistical measures such as skewness and kurtosis to check for normality.
05

Evaluate Normality

Assess the approximate normality of the sampling distribution through statistical tests such as the Shapiro-Wilk test, or by visually checking if the distribution looks bell-shaped and symmetric. The Central Limit Theorem implies that the greater the sample size, the more the distribution of \(\bar{X}\) resembles a normal distribution.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Lognormal Distribution
The lognormal distribution is a probability distribution of a random variable whose logarithm is normally distributed. In simpler terms, if you take the log of the values of this distribution, you'll get a dataset that fits a normal distribution pattern. This makes it particularly useful in financial modeling, environmental data, and other fields where values cannot be negative.
The parameters of the lognormal distribution are based on the mean (\(\mu\)) and variance (\(\sigma^2\)) of the underlying normal distribution. It is important to remember:
  • \(E(\ln(X))\), the expected value of the logarithm of \(X\), is given by \(\mu\).
  • Variance \(V(\ln(X))\) translates to the variance \(\sigma^2\) of the log's normal distribution.
When examining data through a lognormal lens, you rely on these parameters to make accurate predictions and analyses.
Central Limit Theorem
The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is a fundamental principle in statistics. It states that the sampling distribution of the sample mean will tend to be normal, or Gaussian, if the sample size is sufficiently large. This occurs regardless of the distribution of the population from which the sample is drawn.
The CLT is crucial because it legitimates the use of normal probability models for sample means and other statistics from any distribution, as long as they are large enough samples. Here's why it's beneficial:
  • It allows for approximation with normal distributions, which are easier to work with mathematically.
  • It helps in making inferences about the population mean.
For the simulation exercise, this means as \(n\) increases from 10 to 20, 30, and 50, the distribution of \(\bar{X}\) will become more normal looking, making them easier to analyze and interpret.
Sample Mean
The sample mean, denoted as \(\bar{X}\), is a measure of the central tendency of a sample. It is calculated by summing up all the individual observations in a sample and dividing by the number of observations or sample size, \(n\). Here's the formula:\[\bar{X} = \frac{\sum X_i}{n}\]where \(X_i\) are the sample observations.
The sample mean is important because it serves as an efficient and unbiased estimator of the population mean. In the context of sampling distribution, we use it to construct a frequency distribution of means from multiple samples. As a central feature in the simulation exercise, the sample mean was used to create 1000 distributions for each sample size, helping to show how the sampling distributions differ and how closely they resemble a normal distribution upon visual inspection.
Normal Distribution
The normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution that is symmetrical around its mean, indicating that data near the mean are more frequent in occurrence than data far from the mean. A special feature of normal distribution is its bell shape, often referred to simply as "bell curve."
This type of distribution is crucial in statistics for several reasons:
  • Many statistical tests and models are based on the assumption of normality.
  • It simplifies analysis since many statistical methods require normally distributed data.
In the context of the exercise, the ultimate objective was to determine how the distribution of sample means from a lognormal distribution with varying sample sizes (10, 20, 30, and 50) resembled a normal distribution. Thanks to the properties of the normal distribution and the Central Limit Theorem, larger sample sizes were more likely to display this bell-shaped characteristic.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Let \(X_{1}, \ldots, X_{n}\) be independent rv's with mean values \(\mu_{1}, \ldots, \mu_{n}\) and variances \(\sigma_{1}^{2}, \ldots, \sigma_{\omega}^{2}\). Consider a function \(h\left(x_{1}, \ldots, x_{n}\right)\), and use it to define a rv \(Y=h\left(X_{1}, \ldots, X_{n}\right)\). Under rather general conditions on the \(h\) function, if the \(\sigma_{i}^{\prime}\) 's are all small relative to the corresponding \(\mu_{i}\) 's, it can be shown that \(E(Y) \approx h\left(\mu_{1}, \ldots, \mu_{n}\right)\) and $$ V(Y) \propto\left(\frac{\partial h}{\partial x_{1}}\right)^{2} \cdot \sigma_{1}^{2}+\cdots+\left(\frac{\partial h}{\partial x_{n}}\right)^{2} \cdot \sigma_{n}^{2} $$ where each partial derivative is evaluated at \(\left(x_{1}, \ldots, x_{n}\right)=\) \(\left(\mu_{1}, \ldots, \mu_{n}\right)\). Suppose three resistors with resistances \(X_{1}, X_{2}\), \(X_{3}\) are connected in parallel across a battery with voltage \(X_{4}\). Then by Ohm's law, the current is $$ Y=X_{4}\left[\frac{1}{X_{1}}+\frac{1}{X_{2}}+\frac{1}{X_{3}}\right] $$ Let \(\mu_{1}=10\) ohms, \(\sigma_{1}=1.0 \mathrm{ohm}, \quad \mu_{2}=15\) ohms, \(\sigma_{2}=1.0 \mathrm{ohm}, \mu_{3}=20\) ohms, \(\sigma_{3}=1.5 \mathrm{ohms}, \mu_{4}=120 \mathrm{~V}\), \(\sigma_{4}=4.0 \mathrm{~V}\). Calculate the approximate expected value and standard deviation of the current (suggested by "Random Samplings," CHEMTECH, 1984: 696-697).

Annie and Alvie have agreed to meet between 5:00 P.M. and 6:00 P.M. for dinner at a local health-food restaurant. Let \(X=\) Annie's arrival time and \(Y=\) Alvie's arrival time. Suppose \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent with each uniformly distributed on the interval \([5,6]\). a. What is the joint pdf of \(X\) and \(Y\) ? b. What is the probability that they both arrive between \(5: 15\) and \(5: 45\) ? c. If the first one to arrive will wait only \(10 \mathrm{~min}\) before leaving to eat elsewhere, what is the probability that they have dinner at the health- food restaurant? [Hint: The event of interest is \(A=\\{(x, y):|x-y| \leq 1 / 6\\}\).]

Suppose a randomly chosen individual's verbal score \(X\) and quantitative score \(Y\) on a nationally administered aptitude examination have a joint pdf $$ f(x, y)=\left\\{\begin{array}{cl} \frac{2}{5}(2 x+3 y) & 0 \leq x \leq 1,0 \leq y \leq 1 \\ 0 & \text { otherwise } \end{array}\right. $$ You are asked to provide a prediction \(t\) of the individual's total score \(X+Y\). The error of prediction is the mean squared error \(E\left[(X+Y-t)^{2}\right]\). What value of \(t\) minimizes the error of prediction?

A large but sparsely populated county has two small hospitals, one at the south end of the county and the other at the north end. The south hospital's emergency room has four beds, whereas the north hospital's emergency room has only three beds. Let \(X\) denote the number of south beds occupied at a particular time on a given day, and let \(Y\) denote the number of north beds occupied at the same time on the same day. Suppose that these two rv's are independent; that the pmf of \(X\) puts probability masses \(.1, .2, .3, .2\), and \(.2\) on the \(x\) values \(0,1,2,3\), and 4 , respectively; and that the pmf of \(Y\) distributes probabilities .1, .3, .4, and \(.2\) on the \(y\) values \(0,1,2\), and 3 , respectively. a. Display the joint pmf of \(X\) and \(Y\) in a joint probability table. b. Compute \(P(X \leq 1\) and \(Y \leq 1)\) by adding probabilities from the joint pmf, and verify that this equals the product of \(P(X \leq 1)\) and \(P(Y \leq 1)\). c. Express the event that the total number of beds occupied at the two hospitals combined is at most 1 in terms of \(X\) and \(Y\), and then calculate this probability. d. What is the probability that at least one of the two hospitals has no beds occupied?

Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be independent standard normal random variables, and define a new rv by \(U=.6 X+.8 Y\). a. Determine \(\operatorname{Corr}(X, U)\). b. How would you alter \(U\) to obtain \(\operatorname{Corr}(X, U)=\rho\) for a specified value of \(\rho\) ?

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