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The article 鈥淯ncertainty Estimation in Railway Track Life-Cycle Cost鈥 (J. of Rail and Rapid Transit, 2009) presented the following data on time to repair (min) a rail break in the high rail on a curved track of a certain railway line.

\(159 120 480 149 270 547 340 43 228 202 240 218\)

A normal probability plot of the data shows a reasonably linear pattern, so it is plausible that the population distribution of repair time is at least approximately normal. The sample mean and standard deviation are \(249.7\) and \(145.1\), respectively.

a. Is there compelling evidence for concluding that true average repair time exceeds \(200\) min? Carry out a test of hypotheses using a significance level of \(.05\).

b. Using \(\sigma = 150\), what is the type II error probability of the test used in (a) when true average repair time is actually \(300\) min? That is, what is \(\beta (300)\)?

Short Answer

Expert verified

(a) The average repair time\(200\)minutes is not supported by appropriate evidence.

(b) The probability of a type II error is: \(\mu = 31:P({\rm{ Type II error }}) = 25.46\% \)

Step by step solution

01

Define p-value in hypothesis testing.

The null hypothesis states that the population mean is equal to the value mentioned in the claim. If the null hypothesis is the claim, then the alternative hypothesis states the opposite of the null hypothesis.

\(\begin{array}{l}{H_0}:\mu = 0\\{H_a}:\mu \ne 0\end{array}\)

The formula for the value of the test statistic is given by, \(t = \frac{{\bar x - {\mu _0}}}{{s/\sqrt n }}\).

02

Determine the mean and the standard deviation.

The mean is the ration of sum of all values and the total number of values.

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\bar x &= \frac{{159 + 120 + 480 + 149 + 270 + 547 + 340 + 43 + 228 + 202 + 240 + 218}}{{12}}\\ &= \frac{{2996}}{{12}}\\ &\approx 249.6667\end{aligned}\)

The square of the variance is the standard deviation.

\(\begin{aligned}{c}s &= \sqrt {\frac{{{{(159 - 249.6667)}^2} + \ldots . + {{(218 - 249.6667)}^2}}}{{12 - 1}}} \\ &\approx 145.1490\end{aligned}\)

03

Test the appropriate hypotheses.

(a)

Let the given be:

\(\begin{array}{l}n = 12\\\alpha = 0.05\end{array}\)

Claim that the average repair time\(200\)minutes. The given claim is either the null hypothesis or the alternative hypothesis.

The value of the test statistic:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}t &= \frac{{\bar x - {\mu _0}}}{{s/\sqrt n }}\\ &= \frac{{249.6667 - 200}}{{145.1490/\sqrt {12} }}\\ &\approx 1.185\end{aligned}\)

The P-value is the chance of getting the test statistic's result, or a number that is more severe. The P-value is the number (or interval) in the column header of the T table in the appendix that contains the t-value in the row \(\begin{aligned}{c}df &= n - 1\\ &= 12 - 1\\ &= 11\end{aligned}\) for the student.

\(P > 0.10\)

As the P-value is smaller than the significance level, so the null hypothesis is rejected.

\(P > 0.05 \Rightarrow Fail to Reject {H_0}\)

Hence, the average repair time \(200\) minutes is not supported by appropriate evidence.

04

Determine the probability of a Type II error.

(b)

Let the given be:

\(\begin{array}{l}\sigma = 150\\n = 12\\\alpha = 0.05\end{array}\)

Claim that the average repair time\(200\)minutes. The given claim is either the null hypothesis or the alternative hypothesis.

\({\mu _A} = 300\)

Using the normal probability table in the appendix, find the z-score corresponding to a probability of \(1 - \alpha = 0.95\) (Note: take the complement because the test is right-sided):

\(z = 1.645\)

The population mean (of the hypothesis) is increased by the product of the z-score and the standard deviation to get the sample mean:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\bar x &= \mu + z\frac{\sigma }{{\sqrt n }}\\ &= 200 + 1.645\frac{{150}}{{\sqrt {12} }}\\ &\approx 271.2306\end{aligned}\)

The z-value is the sample mean divided by the standard deviation, after subtracting the population mean (alternative mean).

\(\begin{aligned} z &= \frac{{\bar x - \mu }}{{\sigma /\sqrt n }}\\ &= \frac{{271.2306 - 300}}{{150/\sqrt {12} }}\\ &\approx - 0.66\end{aligned}\)

When the null hypothesis is false, the probability of making a type II error is the probability of not rejecting the null hypothesis. Using the normal probability table in the appendix, calculate the chances of failing to reject the null hypothesis.

\(\begin{aligned}{c}P({\rm{ Type II error }}) &= P(Z < - 0.66)\\ &= 0.2546\\ &= 25.46\% \end{aligned}\)

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