/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Q35E The article 鈥淯ncertainty Estim... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91影视

91影视

The article 鈥淯ncertainty Estimation in Railway Track Life-Cycle Cost鈥 (J. of Rail and Rapid Transit, 2009) presented the following data on time to repair (min) a rail break in the high rail on a curved track of a certain railway line.

\(159 120 480 149 270 547 340 43 228 202 240 218\)

A normal probability plot of the data shows a reasonably linear pattern, so it is plausible that the population distribution of repair time is at least approximately normal. The sample mean and standard deviation are \(249.7\) and \(145.1\), respectively.

a. Is there compelling evidence for concluding that true average repair time exceeds \(200\) min? Carry out a test of hypotheses using a significance level of \(.05\).

b. Using \(\sigma = 150\), what is the type II error probability of the test used in (a) when true average repair time is actually \(300\) min? That is, what is \(\beta (300)\)?

Short Answer

Expert verified

(a) The average repair time\(200\)minutes is not supported by appropriate evidence.

(b) The probability of a type II error is: \(\mu = 31:P({\rm{ Type II error }}) = 25.46\% \)

Step by step solution

01

Define p-value in hypothesis testing.

The null hypothesis states that the population mean is equal to the value mentioned in the claim. If the null hypothesis is the claim, then the alternative hypothesis states the opposite of the null hypothesis.

\(\begin{array}{l}{H_0}:\mu = 0\\{H_a}:\mu \ne 0\end{array}\)

The formula for the value of the test statistic is given by, \(t = \frac{{\bar x - {\mu _0}}}{{s/\sqrt n }}\).

02

Determine the mean and the standard deviation.

The mean is the ration of sum of all values and the total number of values.

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\bar x &= \frac{{159 + 120 + 480 + 149 + 270 + 547 + 340 + 43 + 228 + 202 + 240 + 218}}{{12}}\\ &= \frac{{2996}}{{12}}\\ &\approx 249.6667\end{aligned}\)

The square of the variance is the standard deviation.

\(\begin{aligned}{c}s &= \sqrt {\frac{{{{(159 - 249.6667)}^2} + \ldots . + {{(218 - 249.6667)}^2}}}{{12 - 1}}} \\ &\approx 145.1490\end{aligned}\)

03

Test the appropriate hypotheses.

(a)

Let the given be:

\(\begin{array}{l}n = 12\\\alpha = 0.05\end{array}\)

Claim that the average repair time\(200\)minutes. The given claim is either the null hypothesis or the alternative hypothesis.

The value of the test statistic:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}t &= \frac{{\bar x - {\mu _0}}}{{s/\sqrt n }}\\ &= \frac{{249.6667 - 200}}{{145.1490/\sqrt {12} }}\\ &\approx 1.185\end{aligned}\)

The P-value is the chance of getting the test statistic's result, or a number that is more severe. The P-value is the number (or interval) in the column header of the T table in the appendix that contains the t-value in the row \(\begin{aligned}{c}df &= n - 1\\ &= 12 - 1\\ &= 11\end{aligned}\) for the student.

\(P > 0.10\)

As the P-value is smaller than the significance level, so the null hypothesis is rejected.

\(P > 0.05 \Rightarrow Fail to Reject {H_0}\)

Hence, the average repair time \(200\) minutes is not supported by appropriate evidence.

04

Determine the probability of a Type II error.

(b)

Let the given be:

\(\begin{array}{l}\sigma = 150\\n = 12\\\alpha = 0.05\end{array}\)

Claim that the average repair time\(200\)minutes. The given claim is either the null hypothesis or the alternative hypothesis.

\({\mu _A} = 300\)

Using the normal probability table in the appendix, find the z-score corresponding to a probability of \(1 - \alpha = 0.95\) (Note: take the complement because the test is right-sided):

\(z = 1.645\)

The population mean (of the hypothesis) is increased by the product of the z-score and the standard deviation to get the sample mean:

\(\begin{aligned}{c}\bar x &= \mu + z\frac{\sigma }{{\sqrt n }}\\ &= 200 + 1.645\frac{{150}}{{\sqrt {12} }}\\ &\approx 271.2306\end{aligned}\)

The z-value is the sample mean divided by the standard deviation, after subtracting the population mean (alternative mean).

\(\begin{aligned} z &= \frac{{\bar x - \mu }}{{\sigma /\sqrt n }}\\ &= \frac{{271.2306 - 300}}{{150/\sqrt {12} }}\\ &\approx - 0.66\end{aligned}\)

When the null hypothesis is false, the probability of making a type II error is the probability of not rejecting the null hypothesis. Using the normal probability table in the appendix, calculate the chances of failing to reject the null hypothesis.

\(\begin{aligned}{c}P({\rm{ Type II error }}) &= P(Z < - 0.66)\\ &= 0.2546\\ &= 25.46\% \end{aligned}\)

Unlock Step-by-Step Solutions & Ace Your Exams!

  • Full Textbook Solutions

    Get detailed explanations and key concepts

  • Unlimited Al creation

    Al flashcards, explanations, exams and more...

  • Ads-free access

    To over 500 millions flashcards

  • Money-back guarantee

    We refund you if you fail your exam.

Over 30 million students worldwide already upgrade their learning with 91影视!

One App. One Place for Learning.

All the tools & learning materials you need for study success - in one app.

Get started for free

Most popular questions from this chapter

To determine whether the pipe welds in a nuclear power plant meet specifications, a random sample of welds is selected, and tests are conducted on each weld in the sample. Weld strength is measured as the force required to break the weld. Suppose the specifications state that mean strength of welds should exceed 100 lb/in2 ; the inspection team decides to test H0: 碌= 100 versus Ha: 碌> 100. Explain why it might be preferable to use

this Ha rather than 碌 < 100.

A random sample of soil specimens was obtained, and the amount of organic matter (%) in the soil was determined for each specimen, resulting in the accompanying data (from 鈥淓ngineering Properties of Soil,鈥 Soil Science, 1998: 93鈥102).

\(\begin{array}{l}1.10 5.09 0.97 1.59 4.60 0.32 0.55 1.45\\0.14 4.47 1.20 3.50 5.02 4.67 5.22 2.69\\3.98 3.17 3.03 2.21 0.69 4.47 3.31 1.17\\0.76 1.17 1.57 2.62 1.66 2.05\end{array}\)

The values of the sample mean, sample standard deviation, and (estimated) standard error of the mean are \(2.481,1.616,\) and \(.295,\) respectively. Does this data suggest that the true average percentage of organic matter in such soil is something other than \(3\% \)? Carry out a test of the appropriate hypotheses at significance level \(.10\). Would your conclusion be different if a \(\alpha = .05\) had been used? (Note: A normal probability plot of the data shows an acceptable pattern in light of the reasonably large sample size.)

In Problems \(19\) and \(20\) verify that the indicated expression is an implicit solution of the given first-order differential equation. Find atleast one explicit solution \(y = \phi (x)\) in each case. Use a graphing utility to obtain the graph of an explicit solution. Give an interval \(I\) of definition of each solution \(\phi \).

Verify that the piecewise-defined function \(y = \left\{ {\begin{array}{*{20}{r}}{ - {x^2},}&{x < 0}\\{{x^2},}&{x \ge 0}\end{array}} \right.\) is a solution of the differential equation \(xy' - 2y = 0\) on \(( - \infty ,\infty )\).

A new design for the braking system on a certain type of car has been proposed. For the current system, the true average braking distance at 40 mph under specified conditions is known to be 120 ft. It is proposed that the new design be implemented only if sample data strongly indicates a reduction in true average braking distance for the new design.

a.Define the parameter of interest and state the relevant hypotheses.

b.Suppose braking distance for the new system is normally distributed with 蟽= 10. Let \(\overline X \) denote the sample average braking distance for a random sample of 36 observations. Which values of \(\overline x \) are more contradictory to H0 than 117.2, what is the P-value in this case, and what conclusion is appropriate if 伪 = .10?

c.What is the probability that the new design is not implemented when its true average braking distance is actually 115 ft and the test from part (b) is used?

See all solutions

Recommended explanations on Math Textbooks

View all explanations

What do you think about this solution?

We value your feedback to improve our textbook solutions.

Study anywhere. Anytime. Across all devices.