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A new design for the braking system on a certain type of car has been proposed. For the current system, the true average braking distance at 40 mph under specified conditions is known to be 120 ft. It is proposed that the new design be implemented only if sample data strongly indicates a reduction in true average braking distance for the new design.

a.Define the parameter of interest and state the relevant hypotheses.

b.Suppose braking distance for the new system is normally distributed with 蟽= 10. Let \(\overline X \) denote the sample average braking distance for a random sample of 36 observations. Which values of \(\overline x \) are more contradictory to H0 than 117.2, what is the P-value in this case, and what conclusion is appropriate if 伪 = .10?

c.What is the probability that the new design is not implemented when its true average braking distance is actually 115 ft and the test from part (b) is used?

Short Answer

Expert verified

a)\({H_0}:\mu = 120ft\),\({H_a}:\mu < 120ft\)

b) \(P = 0.0465\), The new design can be implemented, because there appears to be reduction in the true average braking distance for the new design.

c)\(\beta = 4.27\% \)

a

Step by step solution

01

Step 1:Null hypothesis.

The null hypothesis, denoted by H0, is the claim that is initially assumed to be true (the 鈥減rior belief鈥 claim). The alternative hypothesis, denoted by Ha, is the assertion that is contradictory to H0.

The null hypothesis will be rejected in favour of the alternative hypothesis only if sample evidence suggests that H0 is false. If the sample does not strongly contradict H0, we will continue to believe in the plausibility of the null hypothesis. The two possible conclusions from a hypothesis-testing analysis are then reject H0 or fail to reject H0.

02

Step 2:Solution for part a).

Given claim: the average braking distance reduced from the known average of \(120ft\).

The average is represented by the population mean \(\mu \).

The null hypothesis states that the population mean is equal to the value mentioned in the claim:

\({H_0}:\mu = 120ft\)

The alternative hypothesis states the

03

Step 3:Solution for part b):z-score.

Given that, Normal distribution with

\(\begin{array}{l}\sigma = 10\\n = 36\end{array}\)

\(\overline x = 117.2\)

\(\alpha = 0.10\)

The sampling distribution of the sample mean \(\overline x \) has mean \(\mu \)and standard deviation \(\frac{\sigma }{{\sqrt n }}\).

The z-score is the value decreased by the mean, divided by the standard deviation:

\(\begin{array}{l}z = \frac{{\overline x - {\mu _{\overline x }}}}{{{\sigma _{\overline x }}}}\\ = \frac{{117.2 - 120}}{{10/\sqrt {36} }}\\ \approx - 1.68\end{array}\)

04

Step 4:Solution for part b):P-value.

The P-value is the probability of obtaining a value more extreme or equal to the standardized test statistic z. determine the probability using normal probability table in the appendix.

\(\begin{array}{l}P = P(Z < - 1.68)\\ = 0.0465\end{array}\)

If the P-value is the smaller than the significance level \(\alpha \), then the null hypothesis is rejected.

\(P < 0.10\),so it鈥檚 reject the \({H_0}\).

The new design can be implemented, because there appears to be reduction in the true average braking distance for the new design.

05

Step 5:Solution for part c):sample mean.

Use the value,\({\mu _a} = 115\)

Determine the z-score corresponding to a probability of \(\beta = 0.10\) using the normal probability table in the appendix ,

\(z = - 1.28\)

The sampling distribution of the sample mean \(\overline x \) has mean \(\mu \)and standard deviation \(\frac{\sigma }{{\sqrt n }}\).

The corresponding sample mean is the population mean (of the null hypothesis) increased by the product of the z-score and the standard deviation:

\(\begin{array}{l}\overline x = \mu + z\frac{\sigma }{{\sqrt n }}\\ = 120 - 1.28\frac{{10}}{{\sqrt {36} }}\\ \approx 117.8667\end{array}\)

We will reject the null hypothesis if the sample mean is larger than \(117.8667\).

06

Step 6:Solution for part c):z-score.

The z-score is the value decreased by the mean, divided by the standard deviation:

\(\begin{array}{l}z = \frac{{\overline x - {\mu _{\overline x }}}}{{{\sigma _{\overline x }}}}\\ = \frac{{117.8667 - 115}}{{10/\sqrt {36} }}\\ \approx 1.72\end{array}\)

Determine the probability that we fail to reject the null hypothesis using the normal probability table in the appendix,

\(\begin{array}{l}\beta = P(Z > 1.72)\\ = 1 - P(Z < 1.72)\\ = 1 - 0.9573\\ = 0.0427\end{array}\)

\(\beta = 4.27\% \)

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