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Exercise 72 of Chapter 1 gave the following observations on a receptor binding measure (adjusted distribution volume) for a sample of 13 healthy individuals: 23, 39, 40, 41, 43, 47, 51, 58, 63, 66, 67, 69, 72.

a. Is it plausible that the population distribution from which this sample was selected is normal?

b. Calculate an interval for which you can be 95% confident that at least 95% of all healthy individuals in the population have adjusted distribution volumes lying between the limits of the interval.

c. Predict the adjusted distribution volume of a single healthy individual by calculating a 95% prediction interval. How does this interval鈥檚 width compare to the width of the interval calculated in part (b)?

Short Answer

Expert verified

a) It is plausible that the population distribution from this sample was selected is normal

b) The interval becomes \(\left( {6.46,98} \right)\)

c) The prediction interval is(18.638,85.824)

Step by step solution

01

Normal probability plot

(a):

Normal probability plot suggests that the population distribution is normal. This stands because the data is not far from normal probability line.

Hence it is plausible that the population distribution from this sample was selected is normal

02

Step 2: To Calculate an interval

The sample mean, which has \({\rm{n = 13}}\)observations is

\({\rm{\bar x = }}\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{{\rm{13}}}}{\rm{(23 + 39 + \ldots + 72) = }}\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{{\rm{13}}}}{\rm{ \times 679 = 52}}{\rm{.231}}\)

The Sample Variance $s^{2}$ is

\({{\rm{s}}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ = }}\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{{\rm{n - 1}}}}{\rm{ \times }}{{\rm{S}}_{{\rm{xx}}}}\)

where

\({{\rm{S}}_{{\rm{xx}}}}{\rm{ = }}\sum {{{\left( {{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{i}}}{\rm{ - \bar x}}} \right)}^{\rm{2}}}} {\rm{ = }}\sum {{\rm{x}}_{\rm{i}}^{\rm{2}}} {\rm{ - }}\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{\rm{n}}}{\rm{ \times }}{\left( {\sum {{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{i}}}} } \right)^{\rm{2}}}\)

The Sample Standard Deviation $s$ is

First compute \({{\rm{S}}_{{\rm{xx}}}}\) using

\(\sum {{\rm{x}}_{\rm{i}}^{\rm{2}}} {\rm{ - }}\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{\rm{n}}}{\rm{ \times }}{\left( {\sum {{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{i}}}} } \right)^{\rm{2}}}\)

where

\(\sum {{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{i}}}} {\rm{ = 679}}\)

which implies that

\(\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{\rm{n}}}{\left( {\sum {{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{i}}}} } \right)^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ = }}\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{{\rm{13}}}}{\rm{ \times 67}}{{\rm{9}}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ = 35464}}{\rm{.69}}\)

From the squared observations \(\left( {{\rm{x}}_{\rm{i}}^{\rm{2}}} \right)\), calculated below

\({\rm{529,1521,1600,1681,1849,2209,2601,3364,3969,4356,4489,4761,5184, }}\)

the following is true

\(\sum {{\rm{x}}_{\rm{i}}^{\rm{2}}} {\rm{ = 529 + 1521 + \ldots + 5184 = 38113}}\)

Now \({{\rm{S}}_{{\rm{xx}}}}\)becomes

\({{\rm{S}}_{{\rm{xx}}}}{\rm{ = }}\sum {{\rm{x}}_{\rm{i}}^{\rm{2}}} {\rm{ - }}\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{\rm{n}}}{\rm{ \times }}{\left( {\sum {{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{i}}}} } \right)^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ = 38113 - 35464}}{\rm{.69 = 2648}}{\rm{.31}}\)

Finally, The Sample Variance is

\({{\rm{s}}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ = }}\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{{\rm{n - 1}}}}{{\rm{S}}_{{\rm{zx}}}}{\rm{ = }}\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{{\rm{12}}}}{\rm{ \times 2648}}{\rm{.31 = 220}}{\rm{.69}}\)

And The Sample Standard Deviation is

\({\rm{s = }}\sqrt {{{\rm{s}}^{\rm{2}}}} {\rm{ = }}\sqrt {{\rm{220}}{\rm{.69}}} {\rm{ = 14}}{\rm{.856}}\)

The tolerance interval is

\({\rm{\bar x \pm ( tolererance critical value) \times s}}\)

by substituting the values, the interval becomes

\({\rm{(52}}{\rm{.231 - 3}}{\rm{.081 \times 14}}{\rm{.856,52}}{\rm{.231 + 3}}{\rm{.081 \times 14}}{\rm{.856) = (6}}{\rm{.46,98)}}\)

Hence the interval becomes \(\left( {6.46,98} \right)\)

03

To predict the adjusted distribution volume

(c):

The prediction interval can be computed using formula

\({\rm{\bar x \pm }}{{\rm{t}}_{{\rm{\alpha /2,n - 1}}}}{\rm{ \times s}}\sqrt {{\rm{1 + }}\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{\rm{n}}}} \)

The only value missing is

\({{\rm{t}}_{{\rm{\alpha /2,n - 1}}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{t}}_{{\rm{0}}{\rm{.025,12}}}}{\rm{ = 2}}{\rm{.179}}\)

which can be found in the appendix of the book. Value $\alpha=0.05$ is obtained from

\({\rm{100(1 - \alpha ) = 95}}\)

because a \(95\% \)prediction interval is needed.

Therefore, the prediction interval is

\(\left( {{\rm{52}}{\rm{.231 - 2}}{\rm{.179 \times 14}}{\rm{.856 \times }}\sqrt {{\rm{1 + }}\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{{\rm{13}}}}} {\rm{,52}}{\rm{.231 + 2}}{\rm{.179 \times 14}}{\rm{.856 \times }}\sqrt {{\rm{1 + }}\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{{\rm{13}}}}} } \right){\rm{ = (18}}{\rm{.638,85}}{\rm{.824)}}\)The width of the prediction interval is smaller than the width of the tolerance interval.

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