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Each customer making a particular Internet purchase must pay with one of three types of credit cards (think Visa, MasterCard, AmEx). Let \({{\rm{A}}_{\rm{i}}}{\rm{(i = 1,2,3)}}\) be the event that a type \({\rm{i}}\)credit card is used, with\({\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_{\rm{1}}}} \right){\rm{ = }}{\rm{.5}}\), \({\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_{\rm{2}}}} \right){\rm{ = }}{\rm{.3}}\), and\({\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_{\rm{3}}}} \right){\rm{ = }}{\rm{.2}}\). Suppose that the number of customers who make such a purchase on a given day is a Poisson \({\rm{rv}}\) with parameter\({\rm{\lambda }}\). Define \({\rm{rv}}\) 's \({{\rm{X}}_{{\rm{1,}}}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{3}}}\)by \({{\rm{X}}_{\rm{i}}}{\rm{ = }}\)the number among the \({\rm{N}}\)customers who use a type \({\rm{i}}\)card\({\rm{(i = 1,2,3)}}\). Show that these three \({\rm{rv}}\) 's are independent with Poisson distributions having parameters\({\rm{.5\lambda ,}}{\rm{.3\lambda }}\), and\({\rm{.2\lambda }}\), respectively. (Hint: For non-negative integers\({{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}\), let\({\rm{n = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ + }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ + }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}\). Then\({\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}} \right.\), \(\left. {{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{3}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}} \right){\rm{ = P}}\left( {{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{3}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}{\rm{,N = n}}} \right)\) (why is this?). Now condition on\({\rm{N = n}}\), in which case the three \({\rm{Xi}}\) 's have a trinomial distribution (multinomial with three categories) with category probabilities\({\rm{.5,}}{\rm{.3}}\), and . \({\rm{2}}\).)

Short Answer

Expert verified

\({{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}\), and \({{\rm{X}}_{\rm{3}}}\)are independent with\({{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{\~Poisson(0}}{\rm{.5\lambda ),}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{\~Poisson(0}}{\rm{.3\lambda )}}\), and\({{\rm{X}}_{\rm{3}}}{\rm{\~Poisson(0}}{\rm{.2\lambda )}}\).

Step by step solution

01

Definition

The standard deviation is a measurement of a collection of values' variance or dispersion. A low standard deviation implies that the values are close to the set's mean, whereas a high standard deviation suggests that the values are dispersed over a larger range.

02

Determining rv’s independent  

Given:

\({{\rm{A}}_{\rm{i}}}{\rm{ = }}\)Type \({\rm{i}}\) credit card is used

\(\begin{array}{l}{\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_{\rm{1}}}} \right){\rm{ = 0}}{\rm{.5}}\\{\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_{\rm{2}}}} \right){\rm{ = 0}}{\rm{.3}}\\{\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_{\rm{3}}}} \right){\rm{ = 0}}{\rm{.2}}\end{array}\)

\({\rm{X = }}\)number of customers who make a purchase

\({\rm{X\sim Poisson(\lambda )}}\)

\({{\rm{X}}_{\rm{i}}}{\rm{ = }}\)number of customers who make a purchase with a type\({\rm{i}}\)card

Formula Poisson probability:

\({\rm{P(X = N) = }}\frac{{{{\rm{\lambda }}^{\rm{N}}}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - \lambda }}}}}}{{{\rm{N!}}}}\)

A trinomial distribution describes the number of successes for three separate categories among a certain number of independent trials with a constant chance of success.

\(\begin{array}{l}{\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{3}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}\mid {\rm{X = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ + }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ + }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}} \right)\\{\rm{ = }}\frac{{\left( {{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ + }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ + }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}} \right){\rm{!}}}}{{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{!}}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{!}}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}{\rm{!}}}}{\rm{0}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{5}}^{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}}}{\rm{0}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{3}}^{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}}}{\rm{0}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{2}}^{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}}}\end{array}\)

Use the General multiplication rule: \({\rm{P(A}}\)and \({\rm{B) = P(A) \times P(B}}\mid {\rm{A) = P(B) \times P(A}}\mid {\rm{B)}}\)

\(\begin{array}{c}{\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{3}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}} \right)\\{\rm{ = P}}\left( {{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{3}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}\mid {\rm{X = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ + }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ + }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}} \right){\rm{P}}\left( {{\rm{X = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ + }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ + }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}} \right)\\{\rm{ = }}\frac{{\left( {{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ + }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ + }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}} \right){\rm{!}}}}{{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{!}}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{!}}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}{\rm{!}}}}{\rm{0}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{5}}^{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}}}{\rm{0}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{3}}^{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}}}{\rm{0}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{2}}^{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}}}\frac{{{{\rm{\lambda }}^{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ + }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ + }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}}}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - \lambda }}}}}}{{\left( {{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ + }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ + }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}} \right){\rm{!}}}}\\{\rm{ = }}\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{!}}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{!}}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}{\rm{!}}}}{\rm{0}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{5}}^{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}}}{\rm{0}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{3}}^{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}}}{\rm{0}}{\rm{.}}{{\rm{2}}^{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}}}{{\rm{\lambda }}^{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}}}{{\rm{\lambda }}^{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}}}{{\rm{\lambda }}^{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}}}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - \lambda (0}}{\rm{.5 + 0}}{\rm{.3 + 0}}{\rm{.2)}}}}\\{\rm{ = }}\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{!}}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{!}}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}{\rm{!}}}}{{\rm{(0}}{\rm{.5\lambda )}}^{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}}}{{\rm{(0}}{\rm{.3\lambda )}}^{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}}}{{\rm{(0}}{\rm{.2\lambda )}}^{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}}}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - 0}}{\rm{.5\lambda }}}}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - 0}}{\rm{.3\lambda }}}}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - 0}}{\rm{.2\lambda }}}}\\{\rm{ = }}\frac{{{{{\rm{(0}}{\rm{.5\lambda )}}}^{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}}}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{0}}{\rm{.5\lambda }}}}}}{{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{!}}}}{\rm{ \times }}\frac{{{{{\rm{(0}}{\rm{.3\lambda )}}}^{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}}}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{0}}{\rm{.3\lambda }}}}}}{{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{!}}}}{\rm{ \times }}\frac{{{{{\rm{(0}}{\rm{.2\lambda )}}}^{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}}}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{0}}{\rm{.2\lambda }}}}}}{{{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}{\rm{!}}}}\end{array}\)

03

Determining rv’s independent  

Individual probability distributions are calculated by adding all potential values of the other variables:

\(\begin{aligned}P\left( {{X_1} = {x_1}} \right) &= \sum\limits_{{x_2}}^{ + \yen} {\sum\limits_{{x_3}}^{ + \yen} {\left( {\frac{{{{(0.5\lambda )}^{{x_1}}}{e^{0.5\lambda }}}}{{{x_1}!}} \times \frac{{{{(0.3\lambda )}^{{x_2}}}{e^{0.3\lambda }}}}{{{x_2}!}} \times \frac{{{{(0.2\lambda )}^{{x_3}}}{e^{0.2\lambda }}}}{{{x_3}!}}} \right)} } \\ &= \frac{{{{(0.5\lambda )}^{{x_1}}}{e^{0.5\lambda }}}}{{{x_1}!}} \times \sum\limits_{{x_2}}^{ + \yen} {\frac{{{{(0.3\lambda )}^{{x_2}}}{e^{0.3\lambda }}}}{{{x_2}!}}} \times \sum\limits_{{x_3}}^{ + \yen} {\frac{{{{(0.2\lambda )}^{{x_3}}}{e^{0.2\lambda }}}}{{{x_3}!}}} \\ &= \frac{{{{(0.5\lambda )}^{{x_1}}}{e^{0.5\lambda }}}}{{{x_1}!}} \times 1 \times 1 \\ & = \frac{{{{(0.5\lambda )}^{{x_1}}}{e^{0.5\lambda }}}}{{{x_1}!}}\sim{\text{ }}Poisson{\text{ }}(0.5\lambda ){\text{ }} \\

Similarly:{\text{ }}P\left( {{X_2} = {x_2}} \right) &= \frac{{{{(0.3\lambda )}^{{x_2}}}{e^{0.3\lambda }}}}{{{x_2}!}}\sim{\text{ }}Poisson{\text{ }}(0.3\lambda )P\left( {{X_3} = {x_3}} \right) \\ &= \frac{{{{(0.2\lambda )}^{{x_3}}}{e^{0.2\lambda }}}}{{{x_3}!}}\sim{\text{ }}Poisson{\text{ }}(0.2\lambda ) \\ \end{aligned} \)

Finally, we note that

\(\begin{array}{l}{\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{3}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}} \right)\\{\rm{ = P}}\left( {{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}} \right){\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}} \right){\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{3}}}{\rm{ = }}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}} \right)\end{array}\)

, which implies that \({{\rm{X}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{, and }}{{\rm{X}}_{\rm{3}}}\)are all independent.

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