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There are two machines available for cutting corks intended for use in wine bottles. The first produces corks with diameters that are normally distributed with mean \({\bf{3}}\) cm and standard deviation \(.{\bf{1}}\) cm. The second machine produces corks with diameters that have a normal distribution with mean \({\bf{3}}.{\bf{04}}\)cm and standard deviation \(.{\bf{02}}\)cm. Acceptable corks have diameters between \({\bf{2}}.{\bf{9}}\)cm and \({\bf{3}}.{\bf{1}}\)cm. Which machine is more likely to produce an acceptable cork?

Short Answer

Expert verified

As a result, machine number two is more likely to produce a satisfactory cork.

Step by step solution

01

Introduction

The standard deviation is a measurement of a set of values' variation or dispersion. A low standard deviation implies that the values are close to the set's mean, whereas a high standard deviation suggests that the values are dispersed over a larger range.

02

Given Information

Allow a random variable\(X\)to represent the diameter of the corks.

Since the diameter of the corks must be between\(2.9\;{\rm{cm}}\)and \(3.1\;{\rm{cm}},\)as a result, whichever machine has a greater \(P\left( {2.9 < X < 3.1} \right),\)is more likely to yield a cork that is acceptable.

03

Calculating machine first

Machine first: The mean and standard deviation of cork diameters produced by machine are as follows:

\(\mu = 3\;{\rm{cm}}\)

\(\sigma = 0.1\;{\rm{cm}}\)

Since there's a good chance that the cork diameter will be smaller, between\(2.9\)and\(3.1\;{\rm{cm}}\)is denoted as\(P\left( {2.9 < X < 3.1} \right).\)

As a result, standardisation yields:

\(2.9 < X < 3.1\)

if and only if

\(\frac{{2.9 - 3}}{{0.1}} < \frac{{X - 3}}{{0.1}} < \frac{{3.1 - 3}}{{0.1}}\)

\(\frac{{ - 0.1}}{{0.1}} < \frac{{X - 3}}{{0.1}} < \frac{{0.1}}{{0.1}}\)

\(1 < Z < 1\)

So,

\(P(2.9 < X < 3.1) = P( - 1 < Z < 1)\)

In this case,\(Z\)represents a standard normal distribution rv with edf\(\phi (z)\). Hence

\(\begin{array}{l}P(2.9 < X < 3.1) = P( - 1 < Z < 1)\\ = \phi (1) - \phi ( - 1)\end{array}\)

To get\(\phi (1)\)and\(\phi ( - 1),\)

\(\phi ( - 1) = 0.1587{\rm{ and }}\phi (1) = 0.8413\)

Hence

\(P\left( {2.9 < X < 3.1} \right) = 0.8413 - 0.1587\)

\({\rm{P}}(2.9 < {\rm{X}} < 3.1) = 0.6826\)

Let Z be a continuous rv with df as a proposition\(\phi (z)\). There any\(a\)and\(b\)with\(a < b\),

\(P(a < Z < b) = \phi (b) - \phi (a)\)

Result for machine first\(P(a < Z < b) = \phi (b) - \phi (a)\).

04

Calculation for machine second

Machine second: The mean and standard deviation of cork diameters produced by machine are as follows:

\(\mu = 3.04\;{\rm{cm}}\)

\(\sigma = 0.02\;{\rm{cm}}\)

Since the likelihood of the cork diameter being between\(2.9\)and\(3.1\;{\rm{cm}}\)is denoted as\(P\left( {2.9 < X < 3.1} \right).\)

As a result, standardisation yields:

\(2.9 < X < 3.1\)

if and only if

\(\frac{{ - 0.14}}{{0.022}} < \frac{{X - 3.04}}{{0.02}} < \frac{{0.06}}{{0.02}}\)

\( - 7 < 2 < 3\)

So,

\(P(2.9 < X < 3.1) = P( - 7 < Z < 3)\)

\(Z\)is a standard normal distribution rv with edr in this case\(\phi (z).\)Hence

\(P(2.9 < X < 3.1) = P( - 1 < Z < 1) = \phi (3) - \phi ( - 7)\)

To get\(\phi (3)\)and\(\phi ( - 7),\)

\(\phi ( - 7) \approx 0{\rm{ and }}\phi (3) = 0.9987\)

Hence

\(P\left( {2.9 < X < 3.1} \right) = 0.9987 - 0\)

\({\rm{P}}(2.9 < {\rm{X}} < 3.1) = 0.9987\)

Therefore, the result of machine second is\({\rm{P}}(2.9 < {\rm{X}} < 3.1) = 0.9987\)

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The article "A Probabilistic Model of Fracture in Concrete and Size Effects on Fracture Toughness" (Magazine of Concrete Res., \({\rm{1996: 311 - 320}}\)) gives arguments for why fracture toughness in concrete specimens should have a Weibull distribution and presents several histograms of data that appear well fit by superimposed Weibull curves. Consider the following sample of size \({\rm{n = 18}}\) observations on toughness for high strength concrete (consistent with one of the histograms); values of \({{\rm{p}}_{\rm{i}}}{\rm{ = (i - }}{\rm{.5)/18}}\) are also given.

\(\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{{\rm{ Observation }}}&{{\rm{.47}}}&{{\rm{.58}}}&{{\rm{.65}}}&{{\rm{.69}}}&{{\rm{.72}}}&{{\rm{.74}}}\\{{{\rm{p}}_{\rm{i}}}}&{{\rm{.0278}}}&{{\rm{.0833}}}&{{\rm{.1389}}}&{{\rm{.1944}}}&{{\rm{.2500}}}&{{\rm{.3056}}}\\{{\rm{ Observation }}}&{{\rm{.77}}}&{{\rm{.79}}}&{{\rm{.80}}}&{{\rm{.81}}}&{{\rm{.82}}}&{{\rm{.84}}}\\{{{\rm{p}}_{\rm{i}}}}&{{\rm{.3611}}}&{{\rm{.4167}}}&{{\rm{.4722}}}&{{\rm{.5278}}}&{{\rm{.5833}}}&{{\rm{.6389}}}\\{{\rm{ Observation }}}&{{\rm{.86}}}&{{\rm{.89}}}&{{\rm{.91}}}&{{\rm{.95}}}&{{\rm{1}}{\rm{.01}}}&{{\rm{1}}{\rm{.04}}}\\{{{\rm{p}}_{\rm{i}}}}&{{\rm{.6944}}}&{{\rm{.7500}}}&{{\rm{.8056}}}&{{\rm{.8611}}}&{{\rm{.9167}}}&{{\rm{.9722}}}\end{array}\)

Construct a Weibull probability plot and comment.

The completion time X for a certain task has cdf F(x) given by

\(\left\{ {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{0\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,x < 0}\\{\frac{{{x^3}}}{3}\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,0 \le x \le \frac{7}{3}}\\{1 - \frac{1}{2}\left( {\frac{7}{3} - x} \right)\left( {\frac{7}{4} - \frac{3}{4}x} \right)\,\,\,\,\,\,1 \le x \le \frac{7}{3}}\\{1\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,\,x > \frac{7}{3}}\end{array}} \right.\)

a. Obtain the pdf f (x) and sketch its graph.

b. Compute\({\bf{P}}\left( {.{\bf{5}} \le {\bf{X}} \le {\bf{2}}} \right)\). c. Compute E(X).

Let \({{\rm{I}}_{\rm{i}}}\) be the input current to a transistor and \({{\rm{I}}_{\rm{0}}}\) be the output current. Then the current gain is proportional to\({\rm{ln}}\left( {{{\rm{I}}_{\rm{0}}}{\rm{/}}{{\rm{I}}_{\rm{i}}}} \right)\). Suppose the constant of proportionality is \({\rm{1}}\) (which amounts to choosing a particular unit of measurement), so that current gain\({\rm{ = X = ln}}\left( {{{\rm{I}}_{\rm{0}}}{\rm{/}}{{\rm{I}}_{\rm{i}}}} \right)\). Assume \({\rm{X}}\) is normally distributed with \({\rm{\mu = 1}}\) and\({\rm{\sigma = }}{\rm{.05}}\).

a. What type of distribution does the ratio \({{\rm{I}}_{\rm{0}}}{\rm{/}}{{\rm{I}}_{\rm{i}}}\) have?

b. What is the probability that the output current is more than twice the input current?

c. What are the expected value and variance of the ratio of output to input current?

The article "'Response of \({\rm{Si}}{{\rm{C}}_{\rm{i}}}{\rm{/S}}{{\rm{i}}_{\rm{3}}}{\rm{\;}}{{\rm{N}}_{\rm{4}}}\) Composites Under Static and Cyclic Loading-An Experimental and Statistical Analysis" (J. of Engr. Materials and Technology, \({\rm{1997: 186 - 193}}\)) suggests that tensile strength (MPa) of composites under specified conditions can be modeled by a Weibull distribution with \({\rm{\alpha = 9}}\) and\({\rm{\beta = 180}}\).

a. Sketch a graph of the density function.

b. What is the probability that the strength of a randomly selected specimen will exceed \({\rm{175}}\)? Will be between \({\rm{150}}\) and \({\rm{175}}\)?

c. If two randomly selected specimens are chosen and their strengths are independent of one another, what is the probability that at least one has a strength between \({\rm{150}}\) and\({\rm{175}}\)?

d. What strength value separates the weakest \({\rm{10\% }}\) of all specimens from the remaining\({\rm{90\% }}\)?

The lifetime \({\rm{X}}\) (in hundreds of hours) of a certain type of vacuum tube has a Weibull distribution with parameters \({\rm{\alpha = 2}}\)and \({\rm{\beta = 3}}\). Compute the following:

a. \({\rm{E(X)}}\) and \({\rm{V(X)}}\)

b. \(P(X \le 6)\)

c. \(P(1.5 \le X \le 6)\)

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