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Let U have a uniform distribution on the interval \(\left( {{\rm{0, 1}}} \right)\). Then observed values having this distribution can be obtained from a computer鈥檚 random number generator. Let \({\rm{X = - (1/\lambda )ln(1 - U)}}\).

a. Show that X has an exponential distribution with parameter l. (Hint: The cdf of X is \({\rm{F(x) = P(X}} \le {\rm{x)}}\); \({\rm{X}} \le {\rm{x}}\) is equivalent to \({\rm{U}} \le {\rm{?}}\))

b. How would you use part (a) and a random number generator to obtain observed values from an exponential distribution with parameter \({\rm{\lambda = 10}}\)?

Short Answer

Expert verified

(a) With the parameter \({\rm{\lambda }}\), X is exponentially distributed.

(b) Perform the following calculation: \({{\rm{x}}_{\rm{i}}}{\rm{ = }}\frac{{{\rm{ - 1}}}}{{{\rm{10}}}}{\rm{ \times ln}}\left( {{\rm{1 - }}{{\rm{u}}_{\rm{i}}}} \right)\) for \({\rm{i = 1,2,3,4 \ldots }}{\rm{.}}\)

Where \({{\rm{u}}_{\rm{i}}}\) is the produced random number.

Step by step solution

01

Definition of Uniform distribution

Uniform distributions are probability distributions in which all events are equally likely. A discrete uniform distribution has discrete outcomes with the same probability. The outcomes of a continuous uniform distribution are both continuous and infinite.

02

Determining X has an exponential distribution with parameter I

(a) If U has a standard normal distribution over the interval \((0,1)\), then the pdf of U can be stated as follows:

\({{\rm{f}}_{\rm{u}}}{\rm{(u) = }}\left\{ {\begin{aligned}{{}{}}{{\rm{1 0}} \le {\rm{u}} \le {\rm{1}}}\\{{\rm{0 otherwise\;}}}\end{aligned}} \right.\)

It is also assumed that X is a linear function of U in the following way:

\({\rm{X = }}\frac{{{\rm{ - 1}}}}{{\rm{\lambda }}}{\rm{ \times ln(1 - U)}}\)

When we write the cdf of U and X as \({{\rm{F}}_{\rm{u}}}{\rm{(u)}}\) and \({{\rm{F}}_{\rm{x}}}{\rm{(x)}}\), we may write the cdf of X as:

\({{\rm{F}}_{\rm{x}}}{\rm{(x) = P(X}} \le {\rm{x)}}\)

\({\rm{ = P}}\left( {\frac{{{\rm{ - 1}}}}{{\rm{\lambda }}}{\rm{ \times ln(1 - u)}} \le {\rm{x}}} \right)\)

\({\rm{ = P}}\left( {\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{\rm{\lambda }}}{\rm{ \times ln(1 - u)}} \ge {\rm{ - x}}} \right)\)

\({\rm{ = P(ln(1 - u)}} \ge {\rm{ - \lambda x)}}\)

\({\rm{ = P}}\left( {{\rm{1 - u}} \ge {{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - \lambda x}}}}} \right)\)

\({\rm{ = P}}\left( {{\rm{u}} \le {\rm{1 - }}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - \lambda x}}}}} \right)\)

\({{\rm{F}}_{\rm{x}}}{\rm{(x) = }}{{\rm{F}}_{\rm{u}}}\left( {{\rm{1 - }}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - \lambda x}}}}} \right)\)

The pdf of X is denoted by \({{\rm{F}}_{\rm{x}}}{\rm{(x)}}\).

\({{\rm{f}}_{\rm{x}}}{\rm{(x) = }}\frac{{\rm{d}}}{{{\rm{dx}}}}{{\rm{F}}_{\rm{x}}}{\rm{(x) = }}\frac{{\rm{d}}}{{{\rm{dx}}}}{{\rm{F}}_{\rm{u}}}\left( {{\rm{1 - }}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - \lambda x}}}}} \right)\)

\({{\rm{f}}_{\rm{x}}}{\rm{(x) = }}\left( {{\rm{\lambda \times }}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - \lambda x}}}}} \right){\rm{ \times }}{{\rm{f}}_{\rm{u}}}\left( {{\rm{1 - }}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - \lambda x}}}}} \right)\)

As can be seen:

\({\rm{0}} \le {\rm{1 - }}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - \lambda x}}}} \le {\rm{1}}\;\;\;{\rm{\;for\;x}} \ge {\rm{0}}\)

\({\rm{1 - }}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - \lambda x}}}}{\rm{ < 0}}\;\;\;{\rm{\;for\;x < 0}}\)

Hence

\({f_u}\left( {1 - {e^{ - \lambda x}}} \right) = \left\{ {\begin{aligned}{{}{}}{{\rm{1 x}} \ge {\rm{0}}}\\{{\rm{0 x < \;0}}}\end{aligned}} \right.\)

03

Determining X is exponentially distributed

Finally, considering the expressions \({{\rm{f}}_{\rm{u}}}\left( {{\rm{1 - }}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - \lambda x}}}}} \right)\) and eqn. (2), we can write:

\({{\rm{f}}_{\rm{x}}}{\rm{(x) = }}\left\{ {\begin{aligned}{{}{}}{{\rm{\lambda \times }}{{\rm{e}}^{{\rm{ - \lambda x}}}}{\rm{ x}} \ge {\rm{0}}}\\{{\rm{0 x < 0}}}\end{aligned}} \right.\)

We can deduce from the above equation that X is exponentially distributed with the parameter \({\rm{\lambda }}\).

04

determining observed values from an exponential distribution

(b) Because each random number has an equal chance of being chosen, the random numbers generated by the generator will have a uniform distribution.

Let's call the sequence of random numbers \({{\rm{u}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{u}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{u}}_{\rm{3}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{u}}_{\rm{4}}}{\rm{ \ldots \ldots \ldots }}{\rm{.}}\)

\({\rm{\lambda = 10}}\)is given.

Then do the following: \({{\rm{x}}_{\rm{i}}}{\rm{ = }}\frac{{{\rm{ - 1}}}}{{{\rm{10}}}}{\rm{ \times ln}}\left( {{\rm{1 - }}{{\rm{u}}_{\rm{i}}}} \right)\) for \({\rm{i = 1,2,3,4 \ldots }}{\rm{.}}\)

Then comes the \({{\rm{x}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{3}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{x}}_{\rm{4}}}{\rm{ \ldots \ldots \ldots }}{\rm{.}}\) sequence of numbers with the parameter \({\rm{\lambda = 10}}\), will have an exponential distribution.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Example \({\rm{4}}{\rm{.5}}\) introduced the concept of time headway in traffic flow and proposed a particular distribution for \({\rm{X = }}\) the headway between two randomly selected consecutive cars (sec). Suppose that in a different traffic environment, the distribution of time headway has the form

\({\rm{f(x) = }}\left\{ {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}}{\frac{{\rm{k}}}{{{{\rm{x}}^{\rm{4}}}}}}&{{\rm{x > 1}}}\\{\rm{0}}&{{\rm{x}} \le {\rm{1}}}\end{array}} \right.\)

a. Determine the value of \({\rm{k}}\) for which \({\rm{f(x)}}\) is a legitimate pdf. b. Obtain the cumulative distribution function. c. Use the cdf from (b) to determine the probability that headway exceeds \({\rm{2}}\) sec and also the probability that headway is between \({\rm{2}}\) and \({\rm{3}}\) sec. d. Obtain the mean value of headway and the standard deviation of headway. e. What is the probability that headway is within \({\rm{1}}\) standard deviation of the mean value?

In each case, determine the value of the constant\({\rm{c}}\)that makes the probability statement correct. a.\({\rm{\Phi (c) = }}{\rm{.9838}}\)b.\({\rm{P(0}} \le {\rm{Z}} \le {\rm{c) = }}{\rm{.291}}\)c.\({\rm{P(c}} \le {\rm{Z) = }}{\rm{.121}}\)d.\({\rm{P( - c}} \le {\rm{Z}} \le {\rm{c) = }}{\rm{.668}}\)e.\({\rm{P(c}} \le {\rm{|Z|) = }}{\rm{.016}}\)

Sales delay is the elapsed time between the manufacture of a product and its sale. According to the article 鈥淲arranty Claims Data Analysis Considering Sales Delay鈥 (Quality and Reliability Engr. Intl., \({\rm{2013:113 - 123}}\)), it is quite common for investigators to model sales delay using a lognormal distribution. For a particular product, the cited article proposes this distribution with parameter values \({\rm{\mu = 2}}{\rm{.05 and }}{{\rm{\sigma }}^{\rm{2}}}{\rm{ = 0}}{\rm{.06}}\) (here the unit for delay is months).

a. What are the variance and standard deviation of delay time?

b. What is the probability that delay time exceeds \({\rm{12}}\) months?

c. What is the probability that delay time is within one standard deviation of its mean value?

d. What is the median of the delay time distribution?

e. What is the \({\rm{99th}}\) percentile of the delay time distribution?

f. Among \({\rm{10}}\) randomly selected such items, how many would you expect to have a delay time exceeding \({\rm{8}}\) months?

A consumer is trying to decide between two long-distance calling plans. The first one charges a flat rate of \({\rm{10}}\) per minute, whereas the second charges a flat rate of \({\rm{99}}\) for calls up to \({\rm{20}}\) minutes in duration and then \({\rm{10\% }}\)for each additional minute exceeding \({\rm{20}}\)(assume that calls lasting a non-integer number of minutes are charged proportionately to a whole-minute's charge). Suppose the consumer's distribution of call duration is exponential with parameter\({\rm{\lambda }}\).

a. Explain intuitively how the choice of calling plan should depend on what the expected call duration is.

b. Which plan is better if expected call duration is \({\rm{10}}\) minutes? \({\rm{15}}\)minutes? (Hint: Let \({{\rm{h}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{(x)}}\) denote the cost for the first plan when call duration is \({\rm{x}}\) minutes and let \({{\rm{h}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{(x)}}\)be the cost function for the second plan. Give expressions for these two cost functions, and then determine the expected cost for each plan.)

If \({\rm{X}}\) has an exponential distribution with parameter \({\rm{\lambda }}\), derive a general expression for the \({\rm{(100p)}}\)th percentile of the distribution. Then specialize to obtain the median.

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