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In the game of roulette, a wheel is spun and you place bets on where it will stop. One popular bet is that it will stop on a red slot; such a bet has an \(18 / 38\) chance of winning. If it stops on red, you double the money you bet. If not, you lose the money you bet. Suppose you play 3 times, each time with a $$\$ 1$$ bet. Let Y represent the total amount won or lost. Write a probability model for \(Y\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
\( Y \) can be -3, -1, 1, or 3 with respective probabilities: \( \left(\frac{18}{38}\right)^3 \), \( 3\cdot\left(\frac{18}{38}\right)^2\cdot\frac{20}{38} \), \( 3\cdot\left(\frac{18}{38}\right)\cdot\left(\frac{20}{38}\right)^2 \), \( \left(\frac{20}{38}\right)^3 \).

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Game Mechanics

In roulette, a bet on red has an 18/38 chance of winning and a 20/38 chance of losing. Since you bet $1 each time and win $2 for each successful bet, if you lose, you lose the entire $1.
02

Define the Random Variable

Let \( Y \) be the total amount of money won or lost after 3 bets. \( Y \) can take different values based on the outcome of each game: it can be \(-3, -1, 1, 3\).
03

Calculate Probabilities for Each Outcome

Calculate the probability for each possible value of \( Y \):- **\( Y = 3 \)**: Win all 3 bets. - Probability: \( \left(\frac{18}{38}\right)^3 \).- **\( Y = 1 \)**: Win exactly 2 out of 3 bets. - Probability: \( \binom{3}{2} \cdot \left(\frac{18}{38}\right)^2 \cdot \frac{20}{38} \).- **\( Y = -1 \)**: Win exactly 1 out of 3 bets. - Probability: \( \binom{3}{1} \cdot \left(\frac{18}{38}\right)^1 \cdot \left(\frac{20}{38}\right)^2 \).- **\( Y = -3 \)**: Lose all 3 bets. - Probability: \( \left(\frac{20}{38}\right)^3 \).
04

Compute Each Specific Probability

Now compute each probability:- \( P(Y = 3) = \frac{18^3}{38^3} \)- \( P(Y = 1) = 3 \cdot \frac{18^2}{38^3} \cdot 20 \)- \( P(Y = -1) = 3 \cdot 18 \cdot \frac{20^2}{38^3} \)- \( P(Y = -3) = \frac{20^3}{38^3} \)
05

Present the Probability Model

The probability model for \( Y \) is:\[ P(Y = 3) = \frac{18^3}{38^3} \]\[ P(Y = 1) = 3 \cdot \frac{18^2 \cdot 20}{38^3} \]\[ P(Y = -1) = 3 \cdot \frac{18 \cdot 20^2}{38^3} \]\[ P(Y = -3) = \frac{20^3}{38^3} \]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Roulette
Roulette is a classic casino game where players bet on where a ball will land on a spinning wheel. The wheel is divided into numbered compartments, which are typically colored red, black, or green. Understanding the layout of the roulette wheel is essential when considering the probability model related to the game. Each spin of the wheel is an independent event, meaning outcomes of spins are not related to one another.

In American roulette, the wheel has 38 slots, numbered from 0 to 36, plus a slot for double zero (00). Among these slots, 18 are colored red and 18 are black, while the 0 and 00 slots are green. This setup is crucial when calculating the probabilities of different bets, such as betting on the ball landing on a red slot.

When you place a bet on red, you have an 18/38 chance of winning with each spin. This knowledge of probability helps players make informed decisions about their bets, understanding the odds they stand against the house.
Random Variable
In the context of roulette, a random variable is a numerical representation of the outcomes of the bets placed. Here, we define the random variable, denoted as \(Y\), to represent the total amount of money won or lost after several bets. This is crucial for forming a probability model that can predict possible gains or losses in the game.

For our specific scenario, where you place three $1 bets in roulette, \(Y\) can take on several possible values. These values depend on the outcomes of the three individual games, such as winning all, some, or none of the bets. Hence, \(Y\) could be -3, -1, 1, or 3, representing losing all bets, losing two, winning one, and winning all bets, respectively.

Assigning numerical outcomes to the random variable \(Y\) based on different game results helps in developing a clear probability distribution model. This illustrates the chances of different levels of wins and losses based on real game data.
Game Mechanics
Understanding the mechanics of the roulette game is crucial for players who wish to play strategically. Game mechanics encompass how the game is set up and how bets are placed, influencing the outcomes and their probabilities. The basic mechanics involve betting on whether the ball will land on a red or black slot, or potentially on other combinations like odd/even or single numbers.

In our scenario, with each $1 bet on red, you win $2 if the ball lands on a red slot, effectively doubling your bet. However, if it lands on a black or green slot, you lose your entire bet. Knowing this, players can calculate expected outcomes when playing multiple games, such as the three $1 bets described.

By understanding these basic game mechanics, players can evaluate potential risks and rewards, aiding them in developing a deeper intuition about when to bet and what strategies might help maximize their winnings in the long run.
Outcome Probabilities
Outcome probabilities in the game of roulette help players gauge the likelihood of their chosen bets paying off. These probabilities are calculated based on the setup of the roulette wheel and the mechanics of the game. In our exercise, the probabilities correspond to various outcomes after making three bets of $1 each.

We can calculate these probabilities for different outcomes of our random variable \(Y\):
  • Winning all three bets (\(Y = 3\)): This happens with a probability of \(\left(\frac{18}{38}\right)^3\).
  • Winning two out of three bets (\(Y = 1\)): The probability here is \(\binom{3}{2} \cdot \left(\frac{18}{38}\right)^2 \cdot \frac{20}{38}\).
  • Winning one out of three bets (\(Y = -1\)): This outcome's probability is \(\binom{3}{1} \cdot \frac{18}{38} \cdot \left(\frac{20}{38}\right)^2\).
  • Losing all three bets (\(Y = -3\)): The likelihood of this happening is \(\left(\frac{20}{38}\right)^3\).

Each possible value of \(Y\) gives a way to calculate how often those specific outcomes occur, helping players make more informed betting decisions.

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