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132. Public Policy Polling recently conducted a survey asking adults across the U.S. about music preferences. When asked, 80 of the 571 participants admitted that they have illegally downloaded music.

a. Create a 99% confidence interval for the true proportion of American adults who have illegally downloaded music.

b. This survey was conducted through automated telephone interviews on May 6 and 7,2013. The error bound of the survey compensates for sampling error or natural variability among samples. List some factors that could affect the survey's outcome that is not covered by the margin of error.

c. Without performing any calculations, describe how the confidence interval would change if the confidence level changed from 99%to90%.

Short Answer

Expert verified

a. The CLof 99%for pis determined as 0.103≤p≤0.177

b. Many people will not reply to surveys including telephone interviews. You have no way of knowing who is responding to the surveys if they do respond.

c. The error bound decreases as the confidence level is reduced, narrowing the confidence interval.

Step by step solution

01

Introduction 

The given data is about a survey conducted to know the music preferences of the citizens

The objective is to find the confidence interval and error bound of the data

02

Step 1

A poll of music tastes was recently done by Public Policy Polling. When asked, x=80of the n=571participants acknowledged to downloading music illegally.

As a result, the sample's estimated proportion is

p'=xn=80571=0.14.

If the proportion of observations in a random sample of size n that belong to a class of interest is p', an approximate 100(1-α)% confidence interval on the proportion p of the population that belongs to this class is p'.

p'-za2p'1-p'n≤p≤p'+zα2p'1-p'n

where zα2is the upper α2percentage point of the standard normal distribution. For 99% two-sided confidence interval,

role="math" localid="1650208287393" α2=1-0.992=0.005
03

Step 2

and

zα2=2.58

From the Equations, a 95% two-sided CL for the population proportion is

14-2.580.14(1-0.14)571≤p≤0.14+2.580.14(1-0.14)571,0.14-0.0374≤p≤0.14+0.0374.

Therefore, a 99% CL for p is

0.103≤p≤0.177.
04

Step 3

b) Many people will not respond to telephone interviews surveys. If they do respond to the surveys, you can not be sure who is responding.

c) Decreasing the confidence level causes the error bound to decrease, making the confidence interval narrower.

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