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By establishing a small value for the significance level, are we guarding against the first type of error (rejecting the null error?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Yes, by establishing a small value for the significance level, we are guarding against the first type of error (Type I error, rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true).

Step by step solution

01

Understand the concept of hypothesis testing

Hypothesis testing is a statistical method used to make a decision or to test an assumption based on a data sample. There are two main hypotheses: The null hypothesis, denoted \(H_0\), which is an initial claim about a population parameter, and the alternative hypothesis, denoted \(H_1\) or \(H_a\), which contradicts the null hypothesis.
02

Understand Type I and Type II errors

In hypothesis testing, there are two types of errors we can make. A Type I error occurs when we reject a true null hypothesis, and a Type II error occurs when we fail to reject a false null hypothesis.
03

Understand the role of the significance level

The significance level, denoted by alpha (\(\alpha\)), is the probability of rejecting a true null hypothesis (Type I error). If we establish a small \(\alpha\), the probability of making a Type I error is reduced.
04

Conclusion

By setting a small significance level, we are reducing the likelihood of committing a Type I error (rejecting a true null hypothesis).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Significance Level
The significance level, often denoted by the symbol \(\alpha\), is a threshold of probability above which we reject the null hypothesis in a hypothesis testing framework. It’s like setting the strictness of our test; a lower \(\alpha\) means we require stronger evidence before we reject \(H_0\). Typically, a significance level of 0.05 is used, which implies that there is a 5% chance of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true.

Choosing a small significance level decreases the likelihood of a Type I error, but it also makes it more difficult to detect a true effect when it exists, potentially increasing the chance of a Type II error. Balancing these risks is key in designing an experiment or study.
Type I Error
A Type I error, also known as a false positive, is a statistical term referring to the incorrect rejection of a true null hypothesis. This error represents a 'false alarm', where we conclude that there is an effect or a difference when in reality, there isn't one. The significance level \(\alpha\) directly controls the probability of making a Type I error; setting a lower \(\alpha\) means that the test is less prone to making this kind of error. However, being too conservative can also be a problem as it might prevent us from detecting real effects.
Type II Error
On the flip side, a Type II error, or a false negative, occurs when the test fails to reject a false null hypothesis. This means that we miss out on identifying an actual effect or difference. The probability of committing a Type II error is denoted by \(\beta\), and researchers aim to reduce it by increasing their sample size or choosing an appropriate significance level. Unlike \(\alpha\), which is set beforehand, \(\beta\) is usually estimated since it depends on the true effect size, variability of the data, and sample size.
Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis, \(H_0\), is a fundamental concept in hypothesis testing as it represents the statement being tested. Typically, \(H_0\) posits that there is no effect or no difference, and it serves as a default assumption to challenge with sample data. It is not a claim we necessarily believe to be true, but rather a skeptic's stance or a starting point for statistical evidence. Only if we find sufficient evidence, in the form of a low p-value compared to our \(\alpha\), do we reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative.
Alternative Hypothesis
Contrary to the null hypothesis, the alternative hypothesis, \(H_a\) or \(H_1\), represents what a researcher wants to prove. It is a claim that indicates the presence of an effect or a difference. For example, if \(H_0\) states that a drug has no effect on a disease, \(H_a\) would claim it does. If we end up rejecting \(H_0\), we are essentially leaning towards the acceptance of \(H_a\), although we never truly confirm it statistically. Researchers aim to provide enough evidence against \(H_0\) to suggest \(H_a\) is a more plausible explanation of the data.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A Gallup poll asked a random samples of Americans in 2016 and 2018 if they were satisfied with the quality of the environment. In 2016 , 543 were satisfied with the quality of the environment and 440 were dissatisfied. In 2018,461 were satisfied and 532 were dissatisfied. Determine whether the proportion of Americans who are satisfied with the quality of the environment has declined. Use a \(0.05\) significance level.

A friend claims he can predict the suit of a card drawn from a standard deck of 52 cards. There are four suits and equal numbers of cards in each suit. The parameter, \(p\), is the probability of success, and the null hypothesis is that the friend is just guessing. a. Which is the correct null hypothesis? i. \(p=1 / 4\) ii. \(p=1 / 13\) iii. \(p>1 / 4\) iv. \(p>1 / 13\) b. Which hypothesis best fits the friend's claim? (This is the alternative hypothesis.) i. \(p=1 / 4\) ii. \(p=1 / 13\) iii. \(p>1 / 4\) iv. \(p>1 / 13\)

A 20-question multiple choice quiz has five choices for each question. Suppose that a student just guesses, hoping to get a high score. The teacher carries out a hypothesis test to determine whether the student was just guessing. The null hypothesis is \(p=0.20\), where \(p\) is the probability of a correct answer. a. Which of the following describes the value of the \(z\) -test statistic that is likely to result? Explain your choice. i. The \(z\) -test statistic will be close to 0 . ii. the \(z\) -test statistic will be far from 0 . b. Which of the following describes the p-value that is likely to result? Explain your choice. i. The p-value will be small. ii. The p-value will not be small.

Choosing a Test and Naming the Population(s) In each case, choose whether the appropriate test is a one-proportion z-test or a two-proportion z-test. Name the population(s). a. A researcher takes a random sample of 4 -year-olds to find out whether girls or boys are more likely to know the alphabet. b. A pollster takes a random sample of all U.S. adult voters to see whether more than \(50 \%\) approve of the performance of the current U.S. president. c. A researcher wants to know whether a new heart medicine reduces the rate of heart attacks compared to an old medicine. d. A pollster takes a poll in Wyoming about homeschooling to find out whether the approval rate for men is equal to the approval rate for women. e. A person is studied to see whether he or she can predict the results of coin flips better than chance alone.

A multiple-choice test has 50 questions with four possible options for each question. For each question, only one of the four options is correct. A passing grade is 35 or more correct answers. a. What is the probability that a person will guess correctly on one multiple- choice question? b. Test the hypothesis that a person who got 35 right out of 50 is not just guessing, using an alpha of \(0.05 .\) Steps 1 and 2 of the hypothesis testing procedure are given. Finish the question by doing steps 3 and 4 . Step 1: \(\quad \mathrm{H}_{0}: p=0.25\) \(\mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{a}}: p>0.25\) Step 2: Choose the one-proportion \(z\) -test. \(n\) times \(p\) is 50 times \(0.25\), which is \(12.5\). This is more than 10 , and 50 times \(0.75\) is also more than 10 . Assume a random sample.

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