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A multiple-choice test has 50 questions with four possible options for each question. For each question, only one of the four options is correct. A passing grade is 35 or more correct answers. a. What is the probability that a person will guess correctly on one multiple- choice question? b. Test the hypothesis that a person who got 35 right out of 50 is not just guessing, using an alpha of \(0.05 .\) Steps 1 and 2 of the hypothesis testing procedure are given. Finish the question by doing steps 3 and 4 . Step 1: \(\quad \mathrm{H}_{0}: p=0.25\) \(\mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{a}}: p>0.25\) Step 2: Choose the one-proportion \(z\) -test. \(n\) times \(p\) is 50 times \(0.25\), which is \(12.5\). This is more than 10 , and 50 times \(0.75\) is also more than 10 . Assume a random sample.

Short Answer

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a. The probability that a person will guess correctly on one multiple-choice question is 0.25. b. Based on the z-test, we reject the null hypothesis which means that the person who got 35 out of 50 correct is not just guessing, with a 5% level of significance.

Step by step solution

01

Part A: Determining the Guess Probability

The probability of guessing correctly on one multiple-choice question can be obtained by dividing the number of correct answers (1) by the total number of options (4). So, the probability \(P(Correct)\) is equal to \(1 / 4 = 0.25\). This means, by pure guessing, a person has a 25% chance of getting a question right.
02

Part B: Step 3 - Determine Rejection Region

For a one tailed test at 5% level of significance, we look at \(Z_{0.05}\) for determining the critical value because the alternative hypothesis is \(P > 0.25\). The value of \(Z_{0.05} = 1.645\). This is the critical number. If the calculated test statistic is greater than this number, reject the null hypothesis.
03

Part B: Step 4 - Calculate Test Statistic and Interpret Results

Now, to calculate the test statistic, use the formula for one-proportion \(Z\) -test . Here, \(p=0.25, X=35, n=50\), plug these values into the formula, \(Z = (X - np) / sqrt(npq)\), we get \(Z = (35 - 50*0.25) / sqrt(50*0.25*0.75) = 5\). Since the calculated \(Z\) is greater than \(Z_{0.05}\), we reject the Null Hypothesis. Thus, we conclude there is enough statistical evidence to claim that the person who got 35 right out of 50 is not just guessing.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Hypothesis Testing
Understand the fundamentals of hypothesis testing is key to analyzing data and making inferences about a population. It is a systematic method used to determine whether there is enough evidence to reject a null hypothesis, \( H_0 \) or not.

Beginning with forming two competing hypotheses, the null hypothesis \( H_0 \) often suggests no effect or no difference, while the alternative hypothesis \( H_a \) indicates the presence of an effect or a difference. In the given exercise, \( H_0: p=0.25 \) suggests that the success probability for each question is 25%, equivalent to random guessing, and \( H_a: p>0.25 \) suggests a higher success rate, indicating non-random guessing.

Next, the significance level, commonly denoted as \( \alpha \) and typically set at 0.05, defines the probability of rejecting \( H_0 \) when it is actually true (Type I error). We then proceed to calculate a test statistic, which helps us determine whether we can reject \( H_0 \) based on our sample data. If the test statistic falls into the rejection region, determined by the significance level and the distribution of the test statistic under \( H_0 \) assumption, we reject \( H_0 \) in favor of \( H_a \).

By understanding these steps, students can systematically approach any hypothesis testing problem with clarity and confidence.
One-Proportion Z-Test
The one-proportion z-test is a statistical tool used to determine whether the observed proportion of a particular outcome is statistically different from a hypothesized proportion.

For example, in a test with multiple-choice questions, the hypothesized proportion of guessing correctly, when there's no actual knowledge of the answers, would be the reciprocal of the number of options per question. In this case, the probability \( p \) is set at \( \frac{1}{4} = 0.25 \) since there are four options. The z-test compares the expected number of successes (defined by \( np \) in Step 1 of our problem) to the observed number (35 correct out of 50).

To conduct a one-proportion z-test, you need the sample proportion and size, and use them in the test formula: \( Z = \frac{X - np}{\sqrt{npq}} \) where \( X \) is number of successes, \( n \) is sample size, \( q \) is the probability of failure (1 - \( p \) ), and \( Z \) is the test statistic. A z-test assumes a normal distribution and a random sample.

It's an essential method for students to master, as it applies to numerous fields where comparison of proportions is necessary. Understanding the one-proportion z-test enhances critical thinking and analytical skills in interpreting data.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance is a term that indicates whether a result is likely due to something other than mere chance. It offers a metric to evaluate the strength of the evidence against the null hypothesis.

The level of significance, denoted as \( \alpha \) and often set at 5% (or 0.05), is the threshold for determining statistical significance. If the probability of obtaining a result as extreme as the observed one is less than \( \alpha \) assuming that \( H_0 \) is true, the result is deemed statistically significant.

In the context of our exercise, a calculated \( z \) score is compared against a critical value. For an \( \alpha \) of 0.05 in a one-tailed test, the critical \( z \) value is 1.645. If our calculated \( z \) score is larger than this critical \( z \) value, the observed result is unlikely due to chance, and we therefore reject the null hypothesis. By understanding statistical significance, students can make informed decisions about the validity of their findings and distinguish between meaningful results and statistical flukes.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

p-Values (Example 11) A researcher carried out a hypothesis test using a two- sided alternative hypothesis. Which of the following \(z\) -scores is associated with the smallest p-value? Explain. i. \(z=0.50\) ii. \(z=1.00\) iii. \(z=2.00\) iv. \(z=3.00\)

A proponent of a new proposition on a ballot wants to know the population percentage of people who support the bill. Suppose a poll is taken, and 580 out of 1000 randomly selected people support the proposition. Should the proponent use a hypothesis test or a confidence interval to answer this question? Explain. If it is a hypothesis test, state the hypotheses and find the test statistic, p-value, and conclusion. Use a \(5 \%\) significance level. If a confidence interval is appropriate, find the approximate \(95 \%\) confidence interval. In both cases, assume that the necessary conditions have been met.

A hospital readmission is an episode when a patient who has been discharged from a hospital is readmitted again within a certain period. Nationally the readmission rate for patients with pneumonia is \(17 \% .\) A hospital was interested in knowing whether their readmission rate for pneumonia was less than the national percentage. They found 11 patients out of 70 treated for pneumonia in a two-month period were readmitted. a. What is \(\hat{p}\), the sample proportion of readmission? b. Write the null and alternative hypotheses. c. Find the value of the test statistic and explain it in context. d. The p-value associated with this test statistic is \(0.39\). Explain the meaning of the p-value in this context. Based on this result, does the \(\mathrm{p}\) -value indicate the null hypothesis should be doubted?

Historically (from about 2001 to 2014 ), \(57 \%\) of Americans believed that global warming is caused by human activities. A March 2017 Gallup poll of a random sample of 1018 Americans found that 692 believed that global warming is caused by human activities. a. What percentage of the sample believed global warming was caused by human activities? b. Test the hypothesis that the proportion of Americans who believe global warming is caused by human activities has changed from the historical value of \(57 \%\). Use a significance level of \(0.01\). c. Choose the correct interpretation: i. In 2017 , the percentage of Americans who believe global warming is caused by human activities is not significantly different from \(57 \%\). ii. In 2017 , the percentage of Americans who believe global warming is caused by human activities has changed from the historical level of \(57 \%\).

A taste test is done to see whether a person can tell Coke from Pepsi. In each case, 20 random and independent trials are done (half with Pepsi and half with Coke) in which the person determines whether she or he is drinking Coke or Pepsi. One person gets 13 right out of 20 trials. Which of the following is the correct figure to test the hypothesis that the person can tell the difference? Explain your choice.

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