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The average winter daily temperature in Chicago has a distribution that is approximately Normal, with a mean of 28 degrees and a standard deviation of 8 degrees. What percentage of winter days in Chicago have a daily temperature of 35 degrees or warmer? (Source: wunderground.com)

Short Answer

Expert verified
Therefore, approximately 19.02% of winter days in Chicago have a daily temperature of 35 degrees or warmer.

Step by step solution

01

Understand Z-score

Firstly, understand that a Z-score tells us how many standard deviations an element is from the mean. A positive Z-score indicates the raw score is higher than the mean average. For example, if a Z-score is +1, it is 1 standard deviation from the mean. The Z-score can be calculated with the formula: Z = (X - μ) / σ. Where X is the value we're looking for, μ is the mean and σ is the standard deviation.
02

Calculate Z Score

To find what percentage of winter days has a daily temperature of 35 degrees or warmer, input the numbers into the formula. In this case, X= 35 degrees, μ = 28 degrees, σ = 8 degrees. Therefore, Z= (35-28) / 8 = 0.875.
03

Find Area Under Curve

Now we must look up this Z-score (0.875) in a standard normal distribution table (also known as the Z-table) to find the percentage of area under the curve from the mean to our Z-score. We find that the area is 0.8098 or 80.98%.
04

Subtract From Total

Since we are looking for the percentage of days where temperature is 35 degrees or warmer, we need to subtract the obtained percentage from 100%. So, the required percentage = 100% - 80.98% = 19.02%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Distribution
Normal distribution, often referred to as the bell curve due to its characteristic shape, is a fundamental concept in statistics that describes how data is distributed around a mean or average value. In the case of Chicago's winter daily temperatures, the data is said to be normally distributed around the mean temperature of 28 degrees. This implies that the temperature values are more likely to fall closer to 28 degrees and gradually less likely as they move further away from the mean.

As a property of a normal distribution, approximately 68% of the data falls within one standard deviation of the mean, 95% within two standard deviations, and 99.7% within three standard deviations. This is known as the empirical rule or the 68-95-99.7 rule, which is vital for understanding the spread of data in relation to the mean.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation serves as a gauge of variability in a dataset. In essence, it quantifies how spread out the values are in relation to the mean. A smaller standard deviation indicates that the data points are clustered closely around the mean, whereas a larger standard deviation signifies more spread.

For the Chicago winter temperature example, the standard deviation is 8 degrees, meaning that most of the winter daily temperatures are expected to fall within a range of 8 degrees above or below the mean of 28 degrees. Understanding the standard deviation helps us predict how temperature values are scattered and anticipate the likelihood of extreme weather days.
Area Under the Curve
The area under the curve in the context of normal distribution represents the probability of a value falling within a certain range. Since the total area under the normal distribution curve equals 100%, each segment of the curve represents a portion of that total probability.

To determine what percentage of winter days in Chicago have a daily temperature of 35 degrees or warmer, we use the area to the right of the corresponding Z-score on the curve. The area to the left represents all the days with temperatures below 35 degrees. By finding the complement of this area, we're left with the percentage of days that meet or exceed the 35 degrees mark.
Standard Normal Distribution Table
A standard normal distribution table, also known as a Z-table, is a reference tool used to find the probability (area under the curve) for a Z-score in a standard normal distribution. The Z-score is a standardized score that tells us how many standard deviations away a particular value is from the mean.

In practical terms, once the Z-score is calculated, such as 0.875 for the 35-degree temperature in Chicago, you look up this Z-score in the table to find the corresponding probability. The table usually lists the area to the left of a Z-score. Therefore, to find the probability of days warmer than 35 degrees, we subtract this value from 100% as demonstrated in the exercise solution.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

For each situation, identify the sample size \(n\), the probability of a success \(p\), and the number of success \(x\). When asked for the probability, state the answer in the form \(b(n, p, x)\). There is no need to give the numerical value of the probability. Assume the conditions for a binomial experiment are satisfied. A 2017 Gallup poll found that \(53 \%\) of college students were very confident that their major will lead to a good job. a. If 20 college students are chosen at random, what's the probability that 12 of them were very confident their major would lead to a good job? b. If 20 college students are chosen at random, what's the probability that 10 of them are not confident that their major would lead to a good job? a. If 20 college students are chosen at random, what's the probability that 12 of them were very confident their major would lead to a good job? b. If 20 college students are chosen at random, what's the probability that 10 of them are not confident that their major would lead to a good job?

A study of human body temperatures using healthy men showed a mean of \(98.1{ }^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\) and a standard deviation of \(0.70{ }^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\). Assume the temperatures are approximately Normally distributed. a. Find the percentage of healthy men with temperatures below \(98.6^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\) (that temperature was considered typical for many decades). b. What temperature does a healthy man have if his temperature is at the 76th percentile?

Alaska Airlines has an on-time arrival rate of \(88 \%\). Assume that in one day, this airline has 1200 flights. Suppose we pick one day in December and find the number of ontime Alaska Airline arrivals. Why would it be inappropriate to use the binomial model to find the probability that at least 1100 of the 1200 flights arrive on time? What condition or conditions for use of the binomial model is or are not met?

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