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According to the Recording Industry Association of America, only \(37 \%\) of music files downloaded from Web sites in 2009 were paid for. Suppose that this percentage holds true for such files downloaded this year. Three downloaded music files are selected at random. What is the probability that all three were paid for? What is the probability that none were paid for? Assume independence of events.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that all three music files were paid for is \( (0.37)^3 \) and the probability that none were paid for is \( (0.63)^3 \).

Step by step solution

01

Determine the probability of success (p) and failure (q)

The probability of success, denoted by \( p \), is defined as the probability that a downloaded music file was paid for. And, the probability of failure, denoted by \( q \), is the probability that a downloaded music file was not paid for. Given, \( p = 0.37 \) (37% of files were paid for), thus, the probability of failure \( q = 1 - p = 1 - 0.37 = 0.63 \).
02

Calculate the probability that all files were paid for

The given situation is a case of all successes. As the problem assumes independence of events, the probability is simply the product of the probabilities of each single event. Therefore, for the case of all 3 files paid for, consistently using the property of independence, the overall probability can be found by multiplying the probability of success three times. Thus, the probability that all three files were paid for \( p^3 = (0.37)^3 \).
03

Calculate the probability that none of the files were paid for

Similarly, for the case of no paid files, meaning all failures, using the property of independence, the probability can be found by multiplying the probability of failure three times. Thus, the probability that none of the three files were paid for \( q^3 = (0.63)^3 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Probability
When we talk about binomial probability, we deal with events that have two possible outcomes: success and failure. This principle is commonly applied in tasks where multiple trials are performed, and each trial has an individual probability of success. In our exercise, downloading a music file can either result in it being paid for (success) or not paid for (failure).
To calculate the overall probability of multiple successes or failures, we apply the binomial probability formula. This formula considers the number of trials ( ), the number of successes we are interested in ( r), and the probabilities of success ( p) and failure ( q). However, in straightforward cases like ours where all trials should result in either all successes or all failures, we bypass some intricacies by simply raising these probabilities to the power of the number of trials (3 here, for 3 files).
By utilizing the probabilities provided (0.37 for success and 0.63 for failure), we can compute the likelihood of all outcomes in this binomial setup.
Independent Events
Independence in probability refers to scenarios where the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of another. In this exercise, the likelihood of a music file being paid for is independent of what happens with any other file. This means the events do not influence each other.
Understanding this concept is crucial because it allows us to multiply individual probabilities to find the probability of combined events. For instance, if we want to find the probability of three independently successful downloads, we simply multiply the probability of each download being successful. This multiplication rule only holds true because the events are independent.
Since the exercise assumes the downloads are independent, we can confidently calculate the required probabilities by multiplying the individual probabilities of paid and unpaid files.
Success and Failure
In probability, outcomes are usually categorized as success or failure to simplify calculations and analysis. Each instance of downloading a music file in our exercise is evaluated as either a success (paid for) or a failure (not paid for). Understanding these terms helps structure our problem-solving approach.
Success and failure provide a clear, dichotomous framework that aids in applying the binomial probability model. Here, the probability of success ( p = 0.37) denotes that 37% of all downloads are paid, while the probability of failure ( q = 0.63) means that 63% of the downloads were not paid for.
These probabilities allow for the calculation of complex scenarios, such as no successes (none paid for) or all successes (all paid for), defined as scenarios of all failures or all successes respectively. This duality makes it easier to compute desired outcomes using the binomial model while handling probabilities effectively.

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