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According to a Randstad Global Work Monitor survey, \(52 \%\) of men and \(43 \%\) of women said that working part-time hinders their career opportunities (USA TODAY, October 6,2011 ). Suppose that these results are based on random samples of 1350 men and 1480 women. a. Let \(p_{1}\) and \(p_{2}\) be the proportions of all men and all women, respectively, who will say that working part-time hinders their career opportunities. Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(p_{1}-p_{2}\) b. Using a \(2 \%\) significance level, can you conclude that \(p_{1}\) and \(p_{2}\) are different? Use both the critical-value and the \(p\) -value approaches.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) The 95% confidence interval for the difference in the proportions is obtained by doing the calculations in step 2. b) By conducting the hypothesis test using both approaches, we'd be able to conclude whether p_{1} and p_{2} are different with a 2% level of significance.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate sample proportions

Calculate sample proportions for both men and women. The sample proportion is calculated as the number of successful outcomes divided by the total number of trials (in this case, the number of people surveyed). For men, this would be \(0.52 * 1350 = 702\) men and for women, it would be \(0.43 * 1480 = 636.4\) women. Note that since we can't have fractional people, we will round this to 636.
02

Construct 95% confidence interval for the difference in proportions

Using the formula for the confidence interval of the difference between two sample proportions which is \((p_{1} - p_{2}) \pm Z \sqrt{\(p_{1}(1 - p_{1})/n_{1} + p_{2}(1 - p_{2})/n_{2}}\), where Z is the Z score for the desired confidence level (in this case, it is 1.96 for 95% confidence), p_{1} and p_{2} are the sample proportions, and n_{1} and n_{2} are the sample sizes. Substituting in the values gives us \( (0.52 - 0.43) \pm 1.96 \sqrt{(0.52 * (1 - 0.52) / 1350) + (0.43 * (1 - 0.43) / 1480)}\).
03

Test the hypothesis using the critical value approach

Using a 2% significance level, the z-critical value at this significance level is 卤2.33. We calculate the z score using the formula \((p_{1} - p_{2}) / \sqrt{p * (1 - p) * [(1/n_{1}) + (1/n_{2})]}\), where p is the pooled sample proportion, calculated as \((x_{1} + x_{2}) / (n_{1} + n_{2})\). If the calculated z score falls outside of the range defined by the critical value, we reject the null hypothesis that the proportions are equal.
04

Test the hypothesis using the p-value approach

Using the obtained z-score, calculate the p-value. If the p-value is less than the significance level, in this case 0.02, reject the null hypothesis that the proportions are equal.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis testing is a statistical method used to make decisions based on data. It's like setting up a challenge between what we think might be true (the alternative hypothesis) and what we assume is true unless proven otherwise (the null hypothesis). In our example, we are testing the claim that the proportion of men and women who believe that working part-time hinders their career opportunities are different.
When you perform hypothesis testing, you typically start by establishing two hypotheses:
  • Null Hypothesis (H鈧): There's no difference, or the effect is a certain value; for example, the proportions are equal.
  • Alternative Hypothesis (H鈧): A difference does exist, or the effect is not what the null hypothesis says.
The goal in hypothesis testing is to determine whether there's enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis. In this example, we use a 2% significance level to help decide whether to reject the null hypothesis, meaning we're aiming for a level of confidence that the evidence isn't due to random chance.
Sample Proportions
Sample proportions represent the fraction of a category within a sample. It's calculated by dividing the number of occurrences by the total number of observations in your sample. In this exercise, we calculate the sample proportions for both men and women who think part-time work affects their careers negatively.
For men, the sample proportion (\(p_1\)) is calculated using \[p_1 = \frac{702}{1350} = 0.52\]and for women (\(p_2\)), \[p_2 = \frac{636}{1480} = 0.43.\]Sample proportions help us estimate the proportions in the whole population based on what we observe in our sample. They are essential for constructing confidence intervals and conducting hypothesis tests. Understanding how to compute sample proportions enables you to interpret survey results and other statistical data.
Z-Score
The Z-score is a statistical measurement that describes a value's relation to the mean of a group of values. When comparing sample proportions like we do in this exercise, the Z-score gives us an idea of how far, in standard deviations, our sample results deviate from the assumed population proportions.
In hypothesis testing, the Z-score formula for comparing two sample proportions is:\[Z = \frac{(p_1 - p_2)}{\sqrt{p(1-p)(\frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2})}}\]where \(p\) is the pooled sample proportion:\[p = \frac{x_1 + x_2}{n_1 + n_2}\]The calculated Z-score can then be compared to a critical value (from the Z-table) to make decisions about the hypothesis. In our example, if the Z-score is either positive or negative beyond the critical values of 卤2.33 (for a 2% significance level), we reject the null hypothesis that there is no difference in proportions.
Significance Level
The significance level, often denoted as \(\alpha\), is the threshold for deciding whether to reject the null hypothesis. It represents the probability of making a Type I error, which is rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true. It's a risk we accept in hypothesis testing because we want to control how confident we are in our conclusions.
In this problem, the significance level is set at 0.02 (2%). This means we're willing to accept a 2% chance that our decision to reject the null hypothesis is incorrect. We use this alpha level to determine our z-critical values, which in turn guide our acceptance or rejection of the hypothesis.
Choosing a higher significance level increases the risk of Type I error, but it may make detection of effects easier. Conversely, a lower significance level makes us more confident in our decisions, but we might miss subtle effects. It's crucial to carefully choose the significance level based on the requirements of your particular analysis.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Perform the following tests of hypotheses, assuming that the populations of paired differences are normally distributed. a. \(H_{0} \cdot \mu_{d f}=0, \quad H_{1}: \mu_{d} \neq 0, \quad n=9, \quad \bar{d}=6.7, \quad s_{d}=2.5, \quad \alpha=.10\) b. \(H_{0}: \mu_{d}=0, \quad H_{1}: \mu_{d}>0, \quad n=22, \quad \bar{d}=14.8, \quad s_{d}=6.4, \quad \alpha=.05\) c. \(H_{0}=\mu_{d}=0, \quad H_{1}: \mu_{d}<0, \quad n=17, \quad \bar{d}=-9.3, \quad s_{d}=4.8, \quad \alpha=.01\)

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