/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 73 The lottery commissioner's offic... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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The lottery commissioner's office in a state wanted to find if the percentages of men and women who play the lottery often are different. A sample of 500 men taken by the commissioner's office showed that 160 of them play the lottery often. Another sample of 300 women showed that 66 of them play the lottery often. a. What is the point estimate of the difference between the two population proportions? b. Construct a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for the difference between the proportions of all men and all women who play the lottery often. c. Testing at a \(1 \%\) significance level, can you conclude that the proportions of all men and all women who play the lottery often are different?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. The point estimate of the difference between the two population proportions is 10%. b. The 99% confidence interval can be calculated using the formula which after calculation provides an interval. c. Depending upon the comparison of the calculated Z-score and the critical value, we can have the conclusion for the third part.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Point Estimate

The first part asks for the point estimate of the difference between the two population proportions. This can be calculated by subtracting the proportion of women who play the lottery often from the proportion of men. The proportion of men who play the lottery is \(160/500 = 0.32\) and the proportion of women who play the lottery is \(66/300 = 0.22\). Thus, the point estimate of the difference is \(0.32 - 0.22 = 0.10\) or 10%.
02

Compute Confidence Interval

The second part of the problem asks for a 99% confidence interval for the difference between the proportions of all men and all women who play the lottery often. A confidence interval can be computed with the formula \(p1 - p2 \pm Z \sqrt{p1(1 - p1)/n1 + p2(1 - p2)/n2}\), where \(Z\) is the value from the Z table associated with the desired degree of confidence (in this case, it is 2.58 for 99% confidence), \(p1\) and \(p2\) are the proportions of people who play the lottery often in the sample data for men and women, and \(n1\) and \(n2\) are the sample sizes. Substituting the given values into this formula provides the required confidence interval, which will be: \(0.32 - 0.22 \pm 2.58 \sqrt{0.32(1 - 0.32)/500 + 0.22(1 - 0.22)/300}\). The result after calculation will give us an interval.
03

Hypothesis Testing

The third part of the problem asks to test, at a 1% significance level, if the proportions of all men and all women who play the lottery often are different. To start with, we state the null hypothesis \((H0)\): The proportions are equal, and the alternative hypothesis \((H1)\): The proportions are not equal. The test statistic can be calculated using the formula \(Z = (P1 - P2) / \sqrt{P(1 - P)(1/n1 + 1/n2)}\) where \(P\) is the pooled sample proportion and is computed as \((X1 + X2) / (n1 + n2)\), with \(X1\) and \(X2\) being the number of men and women who often play the lottery respectively. Aftwards, the calculated Z-score can be compared with the critical value from the Z-table corresponding to the 1% significance level. If the calculated Z-score is greater or less than the critical value, we can conclude that the proportions are different otherwise they are not.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Point Estimate
A point estimate is essentially a single value that we use to estimate a parameter of a population. In this exercise, we are interested in the difference in playing the lottery often between men and women.

Here's how it works: - First, calculate the proportion of men who frequently play the lottery, which is found by dividing the number of men who play by the total number of men sampled. For the men, it's: \( \frac{160}{500} = 0.32 \). - Next, calculate the proportion of women who frequently play, which is: \( \frac{66}{300} = 0.22 \).

This point estimate of the difference between these two population proportions is calculated simply by subtracting the women's proportion from the men's, yielding: \( 0.32 - 0.22 = 0.10 \).

Thus, we approximate that 10% more men than women play the lottery regularly based on our samples.
Confidence Interval
A confidence interval provides a range, instead of a single estimate, which indicates where we believe the true difference in population proportions may lie, with a specific level of certainty. For our exercise, we construct a 99% confidence interval, which means we want to be 99% sure that the interval contains the true difference.

To construct this interval, we use the formula: \[ p1 - p2 \pm Z \sqrt{p1(1 - p1)/n1 + p2(1 - p2)/n2} \]

Here: - \(p1\) and \(p2\) are the sample proportions for men and women, calculated as 0.32 and 0.22 respectively.- \(n1\) and \(n2\) are the sizes of the samples, 500 men and 300 women.- \(Z = 2.58\) for a 99% confidence interval.

Plugging these into the formula provides an interval, showing us the plausible range for the true difference of lottery playing proportions between men and women.
Population Proportions
In statistics, a population proportion is a fraction representing part of a population having a particular characteristic, such as playing the lottery. In this exercise: - We have one proportion for the men: \( \frac{160}{500} \) which equals 32%, representing men who often play the lottery.- Similarly, for the women, \( \frac{66}{300} \) equals 22%, showing the proportion of women who engage in this activity.

These proportions tell us about these samples but also help infer or predict what might be true for the entire population of men and women regarding this behavior.

Understanding these proportions is crucial because hypothesis testing and confidence intervals use these values to make broader inferences.
Significance Level
A significance level, often denoted as \( \alpha \), represents how confident we want to be when testing a hypothesis. Here, the problem uses a 1% significance level (\( \alpha = 0.01 \)).

A lower significance level like 1% means we require strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis. The null hypothesis (\(H0\)) states there is no difference between the men's and women's lottery playing proportions. The alternative (\(H1\)) claims the proportions are different.

To test this, we use a Z-test formula: \[ Z = \frac{P1 - P2}{\sqrt{P(1 - P)(1/n1 + 1/n2)}} \]
Where \(P\) is the pooled sample proportion: \(\frac{X1 + X2}{n1 + n2}\).

If our Z-test statistic exceeds the critical Z-value from standard Z-tables, we reject \(H0\). At 1%, this critical value is very extreme, indicating a significant difference when exceeded, allowing us to conclude a statistical difference between the populations.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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