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Construct a 99 ?o confidence interval for \(p_{1}-p_{2}\) for the following. $$ n_{1}=300, \quad \hat{p}_{1}=.55, \quad n_{2}=200, \quad \hat{p}_{2}=.62 $$

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 99% confidence interval for the difference in proportions \(p_1 - p_2\) is given by \( -0.07 \pm 2.576 * SE \).

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the sample proportions and their difference

First, we need to calculate the difference in sample proportions given by \( p1 - p2 \). From the problem, \( p1 = 0.55 \) and \( p2 = 0.62 \). Therefore, \( p1 - p2 = 0.55 - 0.62 = -0.07 \).
02

Calculate the Standard Error (SE)

Next, we'll calculate the Standard Error. The formula for SE is \( SE = \sqrt{(\frac{p1 * (1 - p1)}{n1}) + (\frac{p2 * (1 - p2)}{n2})} \). Substituting the given values into this formula, we get \( SE = \sqrt{(\frac{0.55 * (1 - 0.55)}{300}) + (\frac{0.62 * (1 - 0.62)}{200})} \).
03

Find the value of Z associated with the desired confidence level

We are asked to construct a 99% confidence interval. So, we look up the Z value in a standard normal distribution table associated with a 95% confidence level (caused by splitting the 99% into two tails of the distribution). The result, known as the critical value, is approximately 2.576.
04

Calculate the confidence interval

Finally, we can calculate the confidence interval. This is \( p1 - p2 \pm Z * SE \). By substituting in the previously calculated values, the confidence interval becomes \( -0.07 \pm 2.576 * SE \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
The concept of a sample proportion represents the fraction or percentage of the sample that has a particular trait or characteristic. In statistical analysis, we use it to draw inferences about the population proportion from which the sample is drawn. For example, if you have 300 people and 165 of them have a particular attribute, the sample proportion would be expressed as \[ \hat{p}_1 = \frac{165}{300} = 0.55. \]In the given exercise, the sample proportion for the first sample is 0.55, and for the second sample, it is 0.62. These provide initial estimates of the respective population proportions.
The difference between these sample proportions, as calculated, is -0.07. This suggests that the characteristic of interest is slightly less common in the first sample compared to the second.
This initial step is crucial for setting up later calculations involving standard error and confidence intervals.
Standard Error
Standard error (SE) measures the accuracy with which a sample distribution represents a population by assessing the variability among sample means (or proportions). It essentially tells us how much variability one can expect in the sample proportion from sample to sample. The formula to calculate the standard error for two sample proportions is given by:\[SE = \sqrt{\left(\frac{p_1 (1-p_1)}{n_1}\right) + \left(\frac{p_2 (1-p_2)}{n_2}\right)}\]Here, \( n_1 \) and \( n_2 \) are the sizes of the two samples, and \( p_1 \) and \( p_2 \) are their respective sample proportions.
Using the values given, this becomes:\[ SE = \sqrt{\left(\frac{0.55 \times (1-0.55)}{300}\right) + \left(\frac{0.62 \times (1-0.62)}{200}\right)}\]This value gives us the basis to calculate how the difference between the two sample proportions compares to differences that might be expected by random sampling variation.
Thus, SE is instrumental when calculating the range in which the true difference between population proportions lies.
Z-value
The Z-value is a statistic that measures the number of standard deviations an element is from the mean. In constructing confidence intervals, the Z-value helps determine how "wide" those intervals should be, by linking to the standard normal distribution.
For a confidence level of 99%, the combined area of both tails of the normal distribution is 1% (0.005 in each tail). Therefore, we look for a Z-value that cuts off an area of 0.005 in the normal distribution tables.
In the exercise, this critical Z-value is approximately 2.576. This means that in 99% of cases, sample means differ from the population mean by less than 2.576 standard deviations. This step is vital for stretches the interval on both sides of our sample statistic, yielding a range we expect to contain the true parameter.
Critical Value
The critical value acts as a cutoff point that defines the boundary for our confidence interval. It's closely related to the Z-value and represents the extent to which sample data can vary from the mean of the population before they are considered statistically significant.
In scenarios where we're determining confidence intervals, the critical value tells us how far, in terms of standard error, we should extend our interval.
Given the confidence level of 99% in this exercise, the critical value is calculated to be 2.576. This means that 99% of sample proportion differences drawn from these populations will fall within this interval, around their mean difference of -0.07.
Thus, by applying this critical value, makes it possible for us to say we are 99% sure our calculated interval captures the true difference in population proportions.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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