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The power of a test is \(0.981 .\) What is the probability of a Type II error?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability of a Type II error is 0.019.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Relationship Between Power and Type II Error

The power of a statistical test is the probability that it correctly rejects the null hypothesis when it is false. The probability of a Type II error, denoted by \( \beta \), is the probability that the test fails to reject a false null hypothesis. These are related by the equation: \( \text{Power} = 1 - \beta \).
02

Substitute the Given Power into the Equation

We know from the problem statement that the power of the test is \(0.981\). Using the equation from Step 1, substitute the power value into the equation: \( 0.981 = 1 - \beta \).
03

Solve for \( \beta \)

To find the probability of a Type II error, rearrange the equation to solve for \( \beta \). Subtract the power from 1: \( \beta = 1 - 0.981 \).
04

Perform the Calculation

Calculate \( 1 - 0.981 \) to find \( \beta \). This results in \( \beta = 0.019 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Power of a Statistical Test
The power of a statistical test is a crucial metric in the realm of hypothesis testing. It helps us understand how effective our test is at detecting a true effect when there is one. In other words, the power tells us the probability that the test will correctly reject a null hypothesis when it is indeed false.
A higher power means that the test is more likely to detect a real difference when it exists, making it a desirable attribute of any statistical test. The power of a test is affected by several factors including the sample size, the significance level, and the true effect size.
  • Sample Size: Larger samples tend to increase the power as they provide more precision in estimating population parameters.
  • Significance Level (): Lower alpha reduces the chance of a Type I error but may lower the power.
  • Effect Size: A larger difference between the null and alternative hypothesis increases the power.
The power is typically set before the test is conducted, and researchers aim for a power of at least 0.80, meaning there is an 80% chance of detecting a true effect if it exists.
Type II Error
A Type II error occurs in hypothesis testing when the test fails to reject a false null hypothesis. This error is represented by the symbol \( \beta \). As seen in the exercise, these errors complement the power of a test. While the power is the probability of correctly rejecting a false null hypothesis, \( \beta \) is the probability of incorrectly accepting it.
For an effective test, we aim to reduce \( \beta \) as much as possible. If the power of a test is known, \( \beta \) can be calculated easily using the relation:
\[ \text{Power} = 1 - \beta \]
In practice, minimizing Type II errors is crucial as it prevents us from missing a real effect in our data. Some strategies to reduce \( \beta \) include increasing the sample size or choosing a more sensitive test. However, it's essential to strike a balance, as aiming solely to reduce \( \beta \) might inadvertently affect other aspects of the testing process.
Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis testing is a structured method used in statistics to decide whether there is enough evidence to reject a null hypothesis. The process typically begins with the formulation of two hypotheses: the null hypothesis (often denoted as \( H_0 \)) and the alternative hypothesis (\( H_1 \)).
  • Null Hypothesis (\( H_0 \)): This is a statement asserting that there is no effect or no difference.
  • Alternative Hypothesis (\( H_1 \)): This suggests that there is an effect, or a difference exists.
The goal in hypothesis testing is to determine which of these hypotheses is supported by the data collected. Hypothesis tests yield results based on two potential types of errors: Type I errors (rejecting a true null hypothesis) and Type II errors (failing to reject a false null hypothesis).
An important decision in hypothesis testing is choosing the significance level or alpha (\( \alpha \)), which affects the probability of making a Type I error. Commonly, \( \alpha \) is set at 0.05, meaning there's a 5% risk of rejecting \( H_0 \) when it's actually true. Balancing \( \alpha \) and \( \beta \) is critical for effective hypothesis testing, ensuring robust and reliable results.

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