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According to an article in Bloomberg Businessweek, New York City's most recent adult smoking rate is 14%. Suppose that a survey is conducted to determine this year鈥檚 rate. Nine out of 70 randomly chosen N.Y. City residents reply that they smoke. Conduct a hypothesis test to determine if the rate is still 14% or if it has decreased.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The smoking rate has not statistically significantly decreased from 14%.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Hypotheses

Identify the null and alternative hypotheses for the scenario. The null hypothesis, denoted as \( H_0 \), assumes that the smoking rate is still 14% (\( p = 0.14 \)). The alternative hypothesis, denoted as \( H_a \), suggests the smoking rate has decreased (\( p < 0.14 \)).
02

Collect and State the Data

In this problem, we have a sample of 70 New York City residents, out of which 9 are smokers. This gives us a sample proportion of smokers, \( \hat{p} = \frac{9}{70} \approx 0.1286 \).
03

Compute the Test Statistic

Use the formula for the test statistic in a proportion hypothesis test:\[ z = \frac{\hat{p} - p}{\sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}}\]where \( \hat{p} = 0.1286 \), \( p = 0.14 \), and \( n = 70 \). Calculate: \[ z = \frac{0.1286 - 0.14}{\sqrt{\frac{0.14 \times 0.86}{70}}} \approx -0.315\]
04

Find the Critical Value

For a hypothesis test with \( \alpha = 0.05 \) (a common significance level), find the critical z-value for a one-tailed test. For \( \alpha = 0.05 \), the critical z-value is approximately -1.645.
05

Make a Decision

Compare the calculated z-statistic with the critical value. Since \( z \approx -0.315 \) is greater than \( -1.645 \), we fail to reject the null hypothesis.
06

Conclusion

Since we failed to reject the null hypothesis, there is not enough statistical evidence to support the claim that the smoking rate has decreased from 14%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null Hypothesis
In hypothesis testing, the null hypothesis is a fundamental concept that plays a critical role in determining the outcome of a statistical test. The null hypothesis, often represented by the symbol \( H_0 \), is a statement that indicates no effect or no difference in the context of the test. Essentially, it serves as a default or baseline condition that we seek to challenge with data.

In the context of the exercise provided, the null hypothesis is that the smoking rate in New York City is still 14%. This is expressed as \( p = 0.14 \). The purpose of the null hypothesis is to assert that there is no change, or nothing new happening, until sufficient evidence suggests otherwise. We maintain the null hypothesis unless data indicates a significant deviation from this baseline.

Whenever formulating a null hypothesis, it's crucial to consider it as the statement we're "testing against." It is not necessarily what we believe to be true, but rather what we seek to prove false through our research. Thus, we use our collected data to conduct tests to determine if there is a strong justification for rejecting this default position.
Alternative Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis is the parameter under test that stands in opposition to the null hypothesis. Symbolized as \( H_a \), it suggests that there is an effect, a difference, or a change from the status quo. It becomes the focus of the hypothesis test because it is what the test aims to support, should the evidence indicate its truth.

In the smoking rate example, the alternative hypothesis states that the smoking rate has decreased from the assumed 14% level. This is written mathematically as \( p < 0.14 \). The aim is to determine if there's significant evidence from the sample data to support this claim. When researchers form an alternative hypothesis, they hypothesize expectantly that the data will show a significant deviation from the null hypothesis.

An alternative hypothesis must be tested against the null hypothesis through methods such as calculating test statistics and comparing those to critical values. If the analysis suggests that data indeed points towards a scenario where the null hypothesis can reasonably be rejected, we would lend support to the alternative claim.
Proportion Hypothesis Test
Proportion hypothesis testing is specifically used when trying to make conclusions about a proportion within a population, based on sample data. This type of test is pivotal in situations where we want to verify whether a population proportion has shifted from a previously specified value.

In executing a proportion hypothesis test, a test statistic, commonly the \( z \)-score for a proportion, is calculated using the formula: \[z = \frac{\hat{p} - p}{\sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}} \]where \( \hat{p} \) is the sample proportion, \( p \) is the population proportion under the null hypothesis, and \( n \) is the sample size.

The result, a \( z \)-score, measures how many standard deviations the sample proportion is from the population proportion. Critical values from a \( z \)-distribution table, often based on a chosen significance level such as \( \alpha = 0.05 \), help determine whether the result is statistically significant.

For the New York City smoking rate question, this test examines whether our sample proportion of smokers significantly deviates from 0.14. As detailed in the solution, the decision to reject or not reject the null hypothesis is based on where the calculated \( z \)-score falls in relation to the critical value, indicating if the alteration in smoking rates is statistically significant.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A Nissan Motor Corporation advertisement read, 鈥淭he average man鈥檚 I.Q. is 107. The average brown trout鈥檚 I.Q. is 4. So why can鈥檛 man catch brown trout?鈥 Suppose you believe that the brown trout鈥檚 mean I.Q. is greater than four. You catch 12 brown trout. A fish psychologist determines the I.Q.s as follows: 5; 4; 7; 3; 6; 4; 5; 3; 6; 3; 8; 5. Conduct a hypothesis test of your belief.

"Japanese Girls鈥 Names" by Kumi Furuichi It used to be very typical for Japanese girls鈥 names to end with 鈥渒o.鈥 (The trend might have started around my grandmothers鈥 generation and its peak might have been around my mother鈥檚 generation.) 鈥淜o鈥 means 鈥渃hild鈥 in Chinese characters. Parents would name their daughters with 鈥渒o鈥 attaching to other Chinese characters which have meanings that they want their daughters to become, such as Sachiko鈥攈appy child, Yoshiko鈥攁 good child, Yasuko鈥攁 healthy child, and so on. However, I noticed recently that only two out of nine of my Japanese girlfriends at this school have names which end with 鈥渒o.鈥 More and more, parents seem to have become creative, modernized, and, sometimes, westernized in naming their children. I have a feeling that, while 70 percent or more of my mother鈥檚 generation would have names with 鈥渒o鈥 at the end, the proportion has dropped among my peers. I wrote down all my Japanese friends鈥, ex-classmates鈥, co-workers, and acquaintances鈥 names that I could remember. Following are the names. (Some are repeats.) Test to see if the proportion has dropped for this generation. Ai, Akemi, Akiko, Ayumi, Chiaki, Chie, Eiko, Eri, Eriko, Fumiko, Harumi, Hitomi, Hiroko, Hiroko, Hidemi, Hisako, Hinako, Izumi, Izumi, Junko, Junko, Kana, Kanako, Kanayo, Kayo, Kayoko, Kazumi, Keiko, Keiko, Kei, Kumi, Kumiko, Kyoko, Kyoko, Madoka, Maho, Mai, Maiko, Maki, Miki, Miki, Mikiko, Mina, Minako, Miyako, Momoko, Nana, Naoko, Naoko, Naoko, Noriko, Rieko, Rika, Rika, Rumiko, Rei, Reiko, Reiko, Sachiko, Sachiko, Sachiyo, Saki, Sayaka, Sayoko, Sayuri, Seiko, Shiho, Shizuka, Sumiko, Takako, Takako, Tomoe, Tomoe, Tomoko, Touko, Yasuko, Yasuko, Yasuyo, Yoko, Yoko, Yoko, Yoshiko, Yoshiko, Yoshiko, Yuka, Yuki, Yuki, Yukiko, Yuko, Yuko.

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