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According to a recent article the average number of babies born with significant hearing loss (deafness) is approximately two per 1,000 babies in a healthy baby nursery. The number climbs to an average of 30 per 1,000 babies in an intensive care nursery. Suppose that 1,000 babies from healthy baby nurseries were randomly surveyed. Find the probability that exactly two babies were born deaf.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that exactly two babies were born deaf is approximately 0.2706.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Scenario

We are given that the average number of babies born with significant hearing loss in a healthy nursery is 2 per 1,000 babies. Since we are dealing with a small fixed number of rare events (deaf births), a Poisson distribution is suitable.
02

Set Up the Poisson Probability Formula

The probability of exactly k events occurring in a fixed interval is calculated using the Poisson formula: \[ P(X=k) = \frac{\lambda^k e^{-\lambda}}{k!} \]where \(\lambda\) is the average number of events (2 in this case), \(k\) is the number of occurrences we want to find the probability for (2 babies), and \(e\) is approximately 2.71828.
03

Calculate \(\lambda^k\)

Calculate \(\lambda^2\). Here, \(\lambda = 2\) and so \(2^2 = 4\). This represents the expected number of events raised to the power of the number of desired occurrences.
04

Compute the Exponential Term

Calculate \(e^{-\lambda}\). Substituting \(\lambda = 2\), we find \(e^{-2} \approx 0.1353\). This represents how the expected number of occurrences spreads in a Poisson distribution.
05

Calculate the Denominator

Find \(k!\), which in this case is the factorial of 2, so \(2! = 2 \times 1 = 2\).
06

Combine Terms to Find Probability

Substitute into the Poisson formula: \[ P(X=2) = \frac{4 \times 0.1353}{2} \]. Calculate to find \[ P(X=2) = 0.2706 \].
07

Verify Calculation

Review all steps to ensure the calculations are correct. Each calculation supports finding \(P(X=2) = 0.2706\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Calculations
Probability calculations help us determine the likelihood of a particular event occurring. In the context of newborn hearing loss using the Poisson distribution, these calculations become particularly useful. The Poisson distribution is suited for situations where we are dealing with rare events and interested in the probability of a number of events happening in a fixed period or space.
The probability of observing exactly two cases of hearing loss in 1,000 babies from healthy nurseries is one such calculation. Here, the scenario aligns perfectly with the Poisson model since we're examining rare occurrences over a specified group.
To calculate this probability, we use the formula:
  • \[ P(X=k) = \frac{\lambda^k e^{-\lambda}}{k!} \]
where \( \lambda \) is the average rate (2 per 1,000), \( k \) is the number of events we are interested in (exactly 2), and \( e \) is the base of the natural logarithm. Each element of the formula corresponds to a step in understanding and calculating the probability.
Rare Events
In probability and statistics, rare events are those that occur infrequently. The Poisson distribution is often used to model such events due to its suitability for rare occurrence prediction over a fixed interval.
Consider the context of hearing loss in newborns from healthy nurseries, where only about 2 out of every 1,000 suffer from it. This makes it a rare event as the occurrence rate is low in the population under observation. The Poisson distribution then helps us explore the likelihood of such rare events, like calculating the probability of exactly two babies being affected, as covered earlier.
This can be extended to various other contexts where rare events occur under fixed conditions over specific periods of time. The rarity lends itself to a higher need for precision yielded by the unique aspects of the Poisson distribution's mathematical framework.
Hearing Loss in Newborns
Hearing loss in newborns can be considered a significant yet infrequent medical condition. Identifying probabilities linked to such conditions helps health professionals to anticipate potential cases. Using statistical models like the Poisson distribution facilitates this prediction in environments like nurseries.
Key points about hearing loss in newborns:
  • It is categorized based on its rarity, with about 2 in every 1,000 healthy newborns affected by significant hearing loss.
  • The need for early detection is critical for effective intervention and support.
By quantifying these probabilities, hospitals can better prepare and allocate resources for screening and treatment, ensuring timely assistance for those affected. Understanding these statistics also helps in formulating public health strategies.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A theater group holds a fund-raiser. It sells 100 raffle tickets for \(\$ 5\) apiece. Suppose you purchase four tickets. The prize is two passes to a Broadway show, worth a total of \(\$ 150\). a. What are you interested in here? b. In words, define the random variable \(X.\) c. List the values that X may take on. d. Construct a PDF. e. If this fund-raiser is repeated often and you always purchase four tickets, what would be your expected average winnings per raffle?

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