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91Ó°ÊÓ

You buy a lottery ticket to a lottery that costs \(\$ 10\) per ticket. There are only 100 tickets available to be sold in this lottery. In this lottery there are one \(\$ 500\) prize, two \(\$ 100\) prizes, and four \(\$ 25\) prizes. Find your expected gain or loss.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The expected loss is $2 per ticket.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Lottery Setup

There are 100 tickets in total, each costing $10. The prizes are one $500 prize, two $100 prizes, and four $25 prizes.
02

Calculate the Probability of Winning Each Prize

The probability of winning the \(500 prize is \( \frac{1}{100} \). The probability of winning one of the \)100 prizes is \( \frac{2}{100} \). The probability of winning one of the $25 prizes is \( \frac{4}{100} \). The probability of winning no prize is \( 1 - \left( \frac{1}{100} + \frac{2}{100} + \frac{4}{100} \right) = \frac{93}{100} \).
03

Determine the Expected Value of Winnings

Calculate the expected value (EV) using the formula: \( EV = (500 \times \frac{1}{100}) + (100 \times \frac{2}{100}) + (25 \times \frac{4}{100}) + (0 \times \frac{93}{100}) \). This simplifies to \( 5 + 2 + 1 = 8 \).
04

Calculate the Expected Gain or Loss per Ticket

The expected gain or loss is the expected value of winnings minus the ticket cost: \( 8 - 10 \).
05

Conclude the Expected Gain or Loss

The expected gain or loss per ticket is \( -2 \). This means, on average, you would lose $2 per ticket.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability of Winning
When participating in a lottery, understanding the probability of winning is crucial. This probability tells us how likely we are to win a specific prize. In a lottery setup like the one we're analyzing, the probability is determined by the number of tickets compared to the number of prizes available. For example, if there is only one prize and 100 tickets, the chance to win that prize is \( \frac{1}{100} \) because there's only one winning ticket out of 100.
  • For the \(500 prize, the chance of winning is \( \frac{1}{100} \).
  • For one of the \)100 prizes, since there are two available, the chance becomes \( \frac{2}{100} \).
  • For one of the $25 prizes, with four available, the probability is \( \frac{4}{100} \).
So, each ticket you buy gives you these odds for each respective prize. Understanding these probabilities helps manage expectations and informs you about your potential chances before entering the lottery.
Lottery Setup
A lottery setup outlines all the details about how the lottery is organized. This includes the total number of tickets available, the cost per ticket, and the prizes that can be won. All of these elements work together to shape the entire lottery experience.
In our situation:
  • Total tickets: 100
  • Cost per ticket: $10
  • Prizes: one $500 prize, two $100 prizes, and four $25 prizes
Such clear details are essential as they directly affect the expected results of participating. The essence of understanding the setup means knowing not just what you might win, but how likely you are to win and how much you need to spend for a chance. This setup will dictate how the probability calculations, and ultimately the expected value, are formulated.
Expected Gain or Loss
Expected gain or loss is a concept used to predict the average financial outcome from participating in an event like a lottery, over the long term. This is determined by calculating the expected value (EV) and then considering the initial cost of participation.
To find the expected value for this lottery, multiply each prize by its probability of occurrence:
  • EV for \(500 prize: \( 500 \times \frac{1}{100} = 5 \)
  • EV for \)100 prizes: \( 100 \times \frac{2}{100} = 2 \)
  • EV for \(25 prizes: \( 25 \times \frac{4}{100} = 1 \)
Adding these gives a total expected value of \( 5 + 2 + 1 = 8 \).
Since each ticket costs \)10, the expected gain or loss is calculated by subtracting the ticket cost from the expected value: \[ EV - \text{Cost} = 8 - 10 = -2 \]This negative result means that, on average, you would lose $2 per ticket purchased. This insight helps individuals make informed decisions about whether or not it is worth participating in the lottery from a financial perspective.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Use the following information to answer the next four exercises. Recently, a nurse commented that when a patient calls the medical advice line claiming to have the flu, the chance that he or she truly has the flu (and not just a nasty cold) is only about 4%. Of the next 25 patients calling in claiming to have the flu, we are interested in how many actually have the flu. Define the random variable and list its possible values.

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Use the following information to answer the next two exercises: The probability that the San Jose Sharks will win any given game is 0.3694 based on a 13-year win history of 382 wins out of 1,034 games played (as of a certain date). An upcoming monthly schedule contains 12 games. A student takes a ten-question true-false quiz, but did not study and randomly guesses each answer. Find the probability that the student passes the quiz with a grade of at least 70% of the questions correct.

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