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Use the following information to answer the next eight exercises: The Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA collected data from 203,967 incoming first-time, full-time freshmen from 270 four year colleges and universities in the U.S. 71.3% of those students replied that, yes, they believe that same-sex couples should have the right to legal marital status. Suppose that you randomly pick eight first-time, full-time freshmen from the survey. You are interested in the number that believes that same sex-couples should have the right to legal marital status. On average \((\mu),\) how many would you expect to answer yes?

Short Answer

Expert verified
On average, 5.704 students are expected to answer yes.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We have a total of eight students sampled from the population. The probability that any one student believes in the right to legal marital status for same-sex couples is 71.3%. We are asked to find the expected number of students who say yes.
02

Define the Probability Context

This is a binomial probability problem where we have a fixed number of independent trials, two possible outcomes (yes or no), and a constant probability of success in each trial.
03

Identify the Parameters of the Binomial Distribution

The problem provides us with a binomial distribution characterized by \( n = 8 \) (the number of trials or students) and \( p = 0.713 \) (the probability of success, where a success is defined as a student saying yes).
04

Calculate the Expected Value

The expected value or mean \( \mu \) of a binomial distribution can be calculated using the formula \( \mu = n \times p \). Thus, \( \mu = 8 \times 0.713 \).
05

Perform the Calculation

Calculate \( \mu = 8 \times 0.713 = 5.704 \). This means, on average, approximately 5.704 students are expected to answer yes.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Expected Value in Binomial Distribution
The concept of expected value is a central theme in probability and statistics. When using a binomial distribution, think of the expected value as a way to predict outcomes over time. It tells us the average result we can anticipate if an experiment (or survey, in this case) were repeated many times.

In our example, we're looking at eight students responding to a survey. The survey asks whether they believe same-sex couples should have equal marital rights. The survey reveals that each student has a 71.3% chance of saying "yes." Since we're using a binomial setup, only two outcomes exist: either the student agrees (success) or disagrees (failure).
  • **Number of trials (n)** = 8 (eight students)
  • **Probability of success (p)** = 0.713 (71.3% likelihood of a "yes" answer)
The expected value, denoted by \( \mu \), is calculated as \( \mu = n \times p = 8 \times 0.713 \). This arithmetic results in an expected value of 5.704. Hence, on average, about 5.704 students would respond positively if this scenario were repeated numerous times.
Exploring Probability in Statistics
Probability provides a framework for understanding the likelihood of different outcomes, rather than just assuming certainty. In the context of this exercise, probability helps us evaluate how likely it is that a random student's response is "yes."

The core idea in probability relevant to this problem involves the binomial probability equation where each trial (student surveyed) has the same probability of success. This distribution is powerful because it allows predictions of the likelihood of different outcomes over numerous trials, even when starting with just one simple probability value.
  • **Independent Trials:** Each student's response doesn't affect another's.
  • **Fixed Probability:** Students consistently have a 71.3% probability of saying "yes."
The binomial distribution's beauty is its control over randomness, putting numbers to predictions. This makes it a vital tool in statistics for both theoretical and practical applications.
Enhancing Your Statistics Education
Statistics education offers valuable tools to interpret data and make informed decisions. Understanding how to handle binomial distributions deepens your ability to apply statistical concepts to real-life situations.

Start by recognizing statistics as an accessible, applicable science, not just abstract numbers. It empowers you to describe, infer, and predict based on data. In this exercise, by calculating the expected value, we've turned a complex survey into an understandable average number of "yes" responses.
  • **Develop critical thinking:** Use statistical tools to interpret data critically.
  • **Real-world applications:** Apply these concepts to everyday questions and decisions.
As you continue studying statistics, you'll discover its versatile applications, from social science research to economics. Solid statistics education will equip you with analytical skills valuable in many career paths, making your learning journey both practical and rewarding.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A venture capitalist, willing to invest \(\$ 1,000,000\), has three investments to choose from. The first investment, a software company, has a 10% chance of returning \(\$ 5,000,000\) profit, a 30% chance of returning \(\$ 1,000,000\) profit, and a 60% chance of losing the million dollars. The second company, a hardware company, has a 20% chance of returning \(\$ 3,000,000\) profit, a 40% chance of returning \(\$ 1,000,000\) profit, and a 40% chance of losing the million dollars. The third company, a biotech firm, has a 10% chance of returning \(\$ 6,000,000\) profit, a 70% of no profit or loss, and a 20% chance of losing the million dollars. a. Construct a PDF for each investment. b. Find the expected value for each investment. c. Which is the safest investment? Why do you think so? d. Which is the riskiest investment? Why do you think so? e. Which investment has the highest expected return, on average?

Use the following information to answer the next five exercises: Suppose that a group of statistics students is divided into two groups: business majors and non-business majors. There are 16 business majors in the group and seven non- business majors in the group. A random sample of nine students is taken. We are interested in the number of business majors in the sample. In words, define the random variable \(X.\)

Use the following information to answer the next four exercises. Recently, a nurse commented that when a patient calls the medical advice line claiming to have the flu, the chance that he or she truly has the flu (and not just a nasty cold) is only about 4%. Of the next 25 patients calling in claiming to have the flu, we are interested in how many actually have the flu. State the distribution of \(X.\)

Use the following information to answer the next five exercises: Suppose that a group of statistics students is divided into two groups: business majors and non-business majors. There are 16 business majors in the group and seven non- business majors in the group. A random sample of nine students is taken. We are interested in the number of business majors in the sample. What values does \(X\) take on?

Use the following information to answer the next six exercises: A baker is deciding how many batches of muffins to make to sell in his bakery. He wants to make enough to sell every one and no fewer. Through observation, the baker has established a probability distribution. $$\begin{array}{|c|c|}\hline x & {P(x)} \\ \hline 1 & {0.15} \\ \hline 2 & {0.35} \\ \hline 3 & {0.40} \\ \hline 4 & {0.10} \\ \hline\end{array}$$ Define the random variable \(X\).

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