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91Ó°ÊÓ

Suppose the probability that an event will occur in one trial is \(p\). Show that the probability that the event will occur at least once in \(n\) independent trials is \(1-(1-p)^{n}\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability of the event occurring at least once in \(n\) independent trials is \(1 - (1-p)^n\), where \(p\) is the probability of the event occurring in one trial. This is found by first understanding the complementary probability concept, calculating the probability of the event not occurring in all trials, and then finding the probability of the complementary event.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the complementary probability concept

The complement of an event is the opposite of that event. In this case, the complement of the event occurring is the event not occurring. If the probability of the event occurring is \(p\), then the probability of it not occurring is \((1-p)\).
02

Probability of the event not occurring in all trials

We have \(n\) independent trials, and we want to find the probability that the event doesn't occur in any of these trials. Since the trials are independent, we can multiply the probability of the event not occurring in each trial: Probability of the event not occurring in all trials = \((1-p)^n\)
03

Find the probability of the complementary event

Now, we are looking for the probability that the event occurs at least once in \(n\) trials. This is the complement of the event not occurring in all trials. We can find the probability using the following relation: Probability of the event occurring at least once = 1 - Probability of the event not occurring in all trials Substitute the probability found in Step 2: Probability of the event occurring at least once = \(1 - (1-p)^n\)

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Theory
Probability theory is fundamental to understanding how likely events are to occur within a given set of circumstances. In essence, it is a branch of mathematics that deals with measuring uncertainty. When we ascertain the probability of an event, denoted by the symbol 'p', we're expressing the chance that a specific outcome will happen, with the value of 'p' ranging from 0 (the event will definitely not occur) to 1 (the event will certainly occur). The beauty is in its ability to convert uncertainty into a measurable form, guiding decision-making and predictions.

In the context of our exercise, understanding probability is crucial because it allows us to quantify the likelihood that an event will happen at least once over several independent trials. Grasping this concept sets the foundation for more complex probabilities, such as the case where we consider the occurrence of an event across multiple scenarios.
Independent Trials
Independent trials are a core idea in probability theory that describes successive experiments or trials where the outcome of any one trial does not influence or change the likelihood of an outcome in another. Essentially, each trial stands alone, and whatever happens in one trial has no bearing on the other trials. This concept is significant because it allows for the simplification of complex probability problems.

For example, when flipping a fair coin, each flip is independent, meaning the result of one flip does not affect the result of the next flip. In our exercise, recognizing the independence of each trial enables us to multiply the probabilities of each individual event not occurring to find the collective probability over multiple trials. Acknowledging this independence is vital, as it underpins the calculations to solve for the probability of an event occurring at least once within a sequence of trials.
Probability for at Least One Event
When we're interested in the probability that an event will occur at least once over a number of trials, we're venturing into an area of probability that can quickly become counterintuitive. Instead of working this out directly, it is often easier to calculate the probability of the complementary scenario — the probability that the event does not occur in any of the trials — and then subtract this from one.

This complementary approach simplifies calculation and reasoning, turning a potentially complex task into an accessible one. By focusing on the 'none' case first with the formula \(1-p)^n\), and then considering that the only other possible set of outcomes includes our event happening at least once, we can swiftly arrive at the desired probability by taking one minus the result \(1 - (1-p)^n\). This elegant shift from a direct approach to a complementary one underscores the importance of understanding different strategies in probability theory.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Let \(E\) and \(F\) be events such that \(F \subset E\). Find \(P(E \mid F)\) and interpret your result.

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According to a study conducted in 2003 concerning the participation, by age, of \(401(\mathrm{k})\) investors, the following data were obtained: $$ \begin{array}{lccccc} \hline \text { Age } & 20 \mathrm{~s} & 30 \mathrm{~s} & 40 \mathrm{~s} & 50 \mathrm{~s} & 60 \mathrm{~s} \\ \hline \text { Percent } & 11 & 28 & 32 & 22 & 7 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ a. What is the probability that a \(401(\mathrm{k})\) investor selected at random is in his or her 20 s or 60 s? b. What is the probability that a \(401(\mathrm{k})\) investor selected at random is under the age of 50 ?

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