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A panel of economists provided forecasts of the U.S. economy for the first six months of 2007 (The Wall Street Journal, January 2,2007 ). The percentage changes in gross domestic product (GDP) forecasted by 30 economists are as follows. \\[\begin{array}{lllllllll} 2.6 & 3.1 & 2.3 & 2.7 & 3.4 & 0.9 & 2.6 & 2.8 & 2.0 & 2.4 \\ 2.7 & 2.7 & 2.7 & 2.9 & 3.1 & 2.8 & 1.7 & 2.3 & 2.8 & 3.5 \\ 0.4 & 2.5 & 2.2 & 1.9 & 1.8 & 1.1 & 2.0 & 2.1 & 2.5 & 0.5 \end{array}\\] a. What is the minimum forecast for the percentage change in GDP? What is the maximum? b. Compute the mean, median, and mode. c. Compute the first and third quartiles. d. Did the economists provide an optimistic or pessimistic outlook for the U.S. economy? Discuss.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Minimum is 0.4, maximum is 3.5. Mean is 2.45, median is 2.5, mode is 2.7. First quartile (Q1) is 2.0, third quartile (Q3) is 2.8.

Step by step solution

01

Identify Minimum and Maximum

First, we need to find the smallest and largest values from the dataset. The values are: \[2.6, 3.1, 2.3, 2.7, 3.4, 0.9, 2.6, 2.8, 2.0, 2.4, 2.7, 2.7, 2.7, 2.9, 3.1, 2.8, 1.7, 2.3, 2.8, 3.5, 0.4, 2.5, 2.2, 1.9, 1.8, 1.1, 2.0, 2.1, 2.5, 0.5\]**Minimum:** 0.4**Maximum:** 3.5
02

Calculate the Mean

To find the mean, sum all the values and divide by the number of values.Sum of values: \[2.6 + 3.1 + 2.3 + 2.7 + 3.4 + 0.9 + 2.6 + 2.8 + 2.0 + 2.4 + 2.7 + 2.7 + 2.7 + 2.9 + 3.1 + 2.8 + 1.7 + 2.3 + 2.8 + 3.5 + 0.4 + 2.5 + 2.2 + 1.9 + 1.8 + 1.1 + 2.0 + 2.1 + 2.5 + 0.5 = 73.5\]Number of values: 30**Mean:** \[\text{Mean} = \frac{73.5}{30} = 2.45\]
03

Find the Median

To calculate the median, sort the values in ascending order and select the middle value(s).Sorted values: \[0.4, 0.5, 0.9, 1.1, 1.7, 1.8, 1.9, 2.0, 2.0, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.3, 2.4, 2.5, 2.5, 2.6, 2.6, 2.7, 2.7, 2.7, 2.7, 2.8, 2.8, 2.8, 2.9, 3.1, 3.1, 3.4, 3.5\]Since there are 30 values (an even number), the median is the average of the 15th and 16th values.**Median:** \[\text{Median} = \frac{2.5 + 2.5}{2} = 2.5\]
04

Determine the Mode

The mode is the number that appears most frequently. From the sorted list, 2.7 appears four times, which is more frequent than any other number. **Mode:** 2.7
05

Compute Quartiles

To find the quartiles, divide the sorted data into quarters.**First Quartile (Q1):** Median of the first 15 values.Values (1 to 15): \[0.4, 0.5, 0.9, 1.1, 1.7, 1.8, 1.9, 2.0, 2.0, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.3, 2.4, 2.5\]Q1 is the 8th value: 2.0**Third Quartile (Q3):** Median of the last 15 values.Values (16 to 30): \[2.5, 2.6, 2.6, 2.7, 2.7, 2.7, 2.7, 2.8, 2.8, 2.8, 2.9, 3.1, 3.1, 3.4, 3.5\]Q3 is the 8th value from this half: 2.8
06

Analyze the Economists' Outlook

The range of GDP forecasts (0.4% to 3.5%) covers a wide spread, suggesting different levels of optimism and pessimism among economists. The mean is 2.45%, and the mode is 2.7%, indicating a moderate prediction trend. The median of 2.5% implies a central tendency slightly below the mode, showing the overall forecast is moderate with neither extreme pessimistic nor extreme optimistic bias.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Mean Calculation
The mean is a fundamental concept in descriptive statistics. It gives us the average value of a dataset, providing a central point around which the data values are distributed. To calculate the mean, you need to add up all the values in your dataset and then divide by the number of values.

For example, with the GDP forecasts from our exercise, there are 30 values, and their total sum is 73.5. To find the mean, you divide 73.5 by 30, yielding a mean of 2.45.

This value this tells us that the average forecasted change in GDP among the 30 economists is 2.45%. Since mean considers every value, it's sensitive to extreme values, potentially skewing it if any outliers exist.
Median and Mode
The median and mode are other measures of central tendency in statistics, each useful for different reasons. The median is the middle number in a sorted dataset, dividing the dataset into two equal halves. If the dataset has an even number of values, the median is the average of the two middle numbers.

In our dataset, after sorting the GDP forecasts, the 15th and 16th values are both 2.5, giving a median of 2.5. This shows that half of the forecasts are below 2.5, and half are above, providing insight into the data's central point without being affected by outliers.

The mode, on the other hand, is the most frequently occurring value in a dataset. For the GDP forecasts, the mode is 2.7, as it's the most repeated value. The mode helps us understand the most common prediction or trend within the dataset, providing insights into prevailing opinions.
Quartiles and Interquartile Range
Quartiles help to understand the distribution of a dataset by dividing it into four parts. The first quartile (Q1) marks the 25th percentile, and the third quartile (Q3) marks the 75th percentile. This allows us to see how the data is distributed across its range.

For the GDP forecast data, Q1 is 2.0, and Q3 is 2.8. This indicates that 25% of the forecasts are 2.0 or less, and 75% are 2.8 or less. The interquartile range (IQR), which is Q3-Q1, measures the middle 50% spread of the data, resulting in an IQR of 0.8.

The IQR is useful because it's not affected by extreme values or outliers, providing a robust measure of variability. It shows how much the central half of your data tends to vary, helping to highlight the stability or variance within a dataset.

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