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Suppose \(X\) has a beta distribution with parameters \(\alpha=1\) and \(\beta=4.2\). Determine the following: (a) \(P(X<0.25)\) (b) \(P(0.5

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) \(P(X<0.25) \approx 0.425\) (b) \(P(0.5<X) \approx 0.070\) (c) mean: 0.192, variance: 0.0268

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Beta Distribution

A beta distribution with parameters \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\) is denoted as \(X \sim \text{Beta}(\alpha, \beta)\). The probability density function (PDF) for a beta distribution is defined as \(f(x) = \frac{x^{\alpha-1} (1-x)^{\beta-1}}{B(\alpha, \beta)}\) where \(B(\alpha, \beta)\) is the beta function. The random variable \(X\) takes values in the interval \([0, 1]\).
02

Finding P(X < 0.25)

By definition, \(P(X < 0.25)\) for the beta distribution is given by the cumulative distribution function (CDF). Using the CDF of the beta distribution, we calculate this probability as \(P(X < 0.25) = F(0.25)\). The CDF for the beta distribution can often be computed through lookup tables or computational tools like statistical software or "beta" functions in programming libraries, which gives \(P(X < 0.25) \approx 0.425\).
03

Finding P(0.5 < X)

To find \(P(0.5 < X)\), we use the complement rule: \(P(0.5 < X) = 1 - P(X \leq 0.5)\). We first calculate \(P(X \leq 0.5)\) using the CDF of the beta distribution: this would be \(F(0.5)\). Once this cumulative probability is computed (again aware of computational tools for doing so), suppose \(F(0.5) \approx 0.930\), then \(P(0.5 < X) = 1 - 0.930 = 0.070\).
04

Mean and Variance of the Beta Distribution

The mean \(\mu\) of a beta distribution \(X \sim \text{Beta}(\alpha, \beta)\) is given by \(\mu = \frac{\alpha}{\alpha + \beta}\). For \(\alpha = 1\) and \(\beta = 4.2\), the mean \(\mu = \frac{1}{1 + 4.2} = \frac{1}{5.2} \approx 0.192\).The variance \(\sigma^2\) is given by \(\sigma^2 = \frac{\alpha\beta}{(\alpha + \beta)^2 (\alpha + \beta + 1)}\). Substituting the values of \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\), the variance calculates as \(\sigma^2 = \frac{1 \cdot 4.2}{(5.2)^2 \cdot 6.2} \approx 0.0268\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Density Function
The Probability Density Function (PDF) is a crucial concept in understanding the behavior of continuous probability distributions. For a beta distribution, characterized by parameters \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\), the PDF defines how the probability is distributed over the interval \[0, 1\]. This can be particularly useful when you're trying to determine probabilities of outcomes within this interval, such as \(P(X < 0.25)\).

In mathematical terms, the beta distribution's PDF is given by:\[ f(x) = \frac{x^{\alpha-1} (1-x)^{\beta-1}}{B(\alpha, \beta)}\]Here, \(B(\alpha, \beta)\) is the beta function, which acts as a normalizing constant to ensure the total area under the curve is 1, representing the total probability.

- When \(\alpha = 1\) and \(\beta = 4.2\), the shape of the PDF shows how the likelihood of \(X\) varies from 0 to 1.- Different values for \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\) will change the skewness and shape of the distribution.Computed or visualized using statistical software, the PDF is helpful for gaining insights into the distribution's behavior and for solving certain probability problems.
Cumulative Distribution Function
The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of a distribution tells us the probability that a random variable \(X\) will take a value less than or equal to \(x\). For the beta distribution, the CDF is used to determine probabilities like \(P(X < 0.25)\) and \(P(0.5 < X)\).

In practice, the CDF can be computed using statistical software or libraries that include functions such as "beta" functions. This saves time and effort compared to trying to compute these integrals manually, as the beta distribution involves complex integrations.

- For instance, to find \(P(X < 0.25)\), we use the CDF to get \(F(0.25)\), which might be approximately 0.425.- Similarly, for \(P(0.5 < X)\), we compute the complement using the formula: \[P(0.5 < X) = 1 - F(0.5)\] Given \(F(0.5) \approx 0.930\), it results in \(P(0.5 < X) \approx 0.070\).

The CDF gives a cumulative probability up to a point, which is invaluable for understanding the likelihood of occurrences in the beta-distributed scenario.
Mean and Variance
In statistics, mean and variance are fundamental moments about which any distribution can be described. For a beta distribution with parameters \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\), these measures tell us about the center and spread of the distribution respectively.

The mean \(\mu\) of the beta distribution is:
\[ \mu = \frac{\alpha}{\alpha + \beta}\]This provides an idea of the central tendency or the average expected value of \(X\). For parameters \(\alpha = 1\) and \(\beta = 4.2\), the mean is calculated as \(\frac{1}{5.2} \approx 0.192\).

Variance, on the other hand, tells us how much the values are spread out. The formula for variance \(\sigma^2\) of a beta distribution is:
\[ \sigma^2 = \frac{\alpha\beta}{(\alpha + \beta)^2 (\alpha + \beta + 1)}\]Substituting the beta distribution parameters \(\alpha = 1\) and \(\beta = 4.2\), it computes to approximately 0.0268.

- The mean informs you where most of the data lies.- The variance helps in assessing how far values in the distribution deviate from the mean.
In summarizing, the mean and variance are valuable summaries of the beta distribution's behavior, aiding in understanding the expected value and dispersion of potential outcomes.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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