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In an accelerator center, an experiment needs a 1.41 -cmthick aluminum cylinder (http://puhepl.princeton.edu/mumu/ target/Solenoid_Coil.pdf). Suppose that the thickness of a cylinder has a normal distribution with a mean of \(1,41 \mathrm{~cm}\) and a standard deviation of \(0.01 \mathrm{~cm}\). (a) What is the probability that a thickness is greater than \(1.42 \mathrm{~cm} ?\) (b) What thickness is exceeded by \(95 \%\) of the samples? (c) If the specifications require that the thickness is between \(1.39 \mathrm{~cm}\) and \(1.43 \mathrm{~cm}\), what proportion of the samples meet specifications?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 0.1587; (b) 1.42645 cm; (c) 0.9544.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Parameters

We have a normal distribution with a mean \( \mu = 1.41 \mathrm{~cm} \) and a standard deviation \( \sigma = 0.01 \mathrm{~cm} \). We'll use this information to calculate probabilities.
02

Calculation for Part (a)

For \( P(X > 1.42) \), calculate the z-score using the formula \( z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \). Substituting the values, we get \( z = \frac{1.42 - 1.41}{0.01} = 1.0 \). Using standard normal distribution tables, \( P(Z > 1.0) = 1 - P(Z \leq 1.0) \approx 0.1587 \).
03

Calculation for Part (b)

Find the thickness exceeded by 95% of samples. We seek the value \( x \) such that \( P(X < x) = 0.95 \). This corresponds to a z-score \( z \approx 1.645 \). Transform to the original variable: \( x = \mu + z \cdot \sigma = 1.41 + 1.645 \times 0.01 = 1.42645 \mathrm{~cm} \).
04

Calculation for Part (c)

Calculate the probabilities for the lower and upper bounds: \( z_{lower} = \frac{1.39 - 1.41}{0.01} = -2.0 \) and \( z_{upper} = \frac{1.43 - 1.41}{0.01} = 2.0 \). Therefore, \( P(1.39 < X < 1.43) = P(Z < 2.0) - P(Z < -2.0) \approx 0.9772 - 0.0228 = 0.9544 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a crucial concept in statistics that measures the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values. It provides insights into how spread out the values in a dataset are from the mean. In the context of a normal distribution, it is particularly useful since it helps determine the spread of data around the mean. For a given set of data, the smaller the standard deviation, the closer the data points are to the mean, while a larger standard deviation indicates a wider spread.
To compute the standard deviation, first, find the mean of the dataset. Then, for each data point, subtract the mean and square the result. The standard deviation is the square root of the average of these squared differences. For normal distributions, such as the one described in the original exercise, this characteristic allows us to make predictions about the distribution of data points.
  • A small standard deviation means most data points are close to the mean.
  • A large standard deviation suggests a wide range of values.
  • In a normal distribution, about 68% of values lie within one standard deviation, 95% within two, and 99.7% within three.
This concept is essential in understanding how much variability exists in a dataset, which was used to determine outcomes related to thickness in the cylindrical example.
Z-score Calculation
A Z-score, also known as the standard score, is a statistical measure that describes a value's position relative to the mean of a group of values, measured in terms of standard deviations. In simpler terms, it tells you how many standard deviations away a specific value is from the average.
To calculate a Z-score, use the formula:
  • \[ z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \]
  • enacting \(X\) represents the value in question, \(\mu\) stands for the mean, and \(\sigma\) is the standard deviation.
This approach aids in standardizing data, making it possible to compare results from different datasets with varying means and standard deviations.
The original exercise used Z-score calculations to find probabilities of certain thicknesses in an aluminum cylinder. For example:
  • To find \( P(X > 1.42) \), a Z-score was calculated, finding that \(z = 1.0\).
  • This Z-score indicates that a thickness of \(1.42\ cm\) lies one standard deviation above the mean.
  • The probability values were then referenced from the standard normal distribution table to find the probability of this specific thickness.
Z-score calculations are pivotal in statistical analysis, allowing comparisons across different scenarios and assisting in making probabilistic predictions.
Probability in Statistics
Probability is a bedrock concept in statistics, providing a framework for quantifying uncertainty. In statistics, probability helps determine the likelihood of an event occurring within a certain distribution, such as the normal distribution. In our specific situation, it was used to solve for the probabilities associated with aluminum cylinder thickness.
In simpler terms, probability answers the "How likely is it?" question regarding outcomes in a statistical experiment or real-world situation. It ranges from 0 (impossible event) to 1 (certain event).
In the original exercise involving aluminum cylinders, probability calculation was central to:
  • Determining the chance of a thickness exceeding \(1.42\, cm\).
  • Finding the range of thicknesses that 95% of the samples fall under.
  • Calculating the proportion of samples having thicknesses between two specified values.
For example, to find what percentage of samples have cylinder thickness meeting specified limits, the principle of calculating cumulative normal probabilities was applied. This was done by finding probabilities from the standard normal distribution for the desired range. Probabilities help in understanding the distribution of data, making predictions, and informed decision-making across numerous fields. Such calculations enable engineers or other professionals to estimate the acceptable variances in manufacturing and gauge quality control.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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