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AThere are n+1participants in a game. Each person independently is a winner with probability p. The winners share a total prize of 1 unit. (For instance, if 4people win, then each of them receives 14, whereas if there are no winners, then none of the participants receives anything.) Let A denote a specified one of the players, and let Xdenote the amount that is received by A.

(a) Compute the expected total prize shared by the players.

(b) Argue that role="math" localid="1647359898823" E[X]=1−(1−p)n+1n+1.

(c) Compute E[X] by conditioning on whether is a winner, and conclude that role="math" localid="1647360044853" E[(1+B)−1]=1−(1−p)n+1(n+1)p when B is a binomial random variable with parameters n and p

Short Answer

Expert verified

Use the law of total expectation to obtain the required.

Step by step solution

01

Given Information

(a) Observe that the total amount of prize that is shared is equal to 0or 1. It is equal to 0 if and only if there is no person that has been declared as the winner. Because of the independence, we have that the expected amount of prize that is shared is equal to

0.1-pn+1+1.1-1-pn+1=1-1-pn+1

(b)Observe that the player Ais able to win 1/(k+1)of prize, where kmarks the number of remaining people that have been declared as winners. But notice, in order to win a prize, (playerAalso has to be declared as winner). Say that B~{Binom}(n,p)represents the number of remaining people that have been declared as winners. In that case, we have that

EX=∑k=0n1k+1p.nkpk1-pn-k=∑k=0n1k+1p.n!k!n-k!pk1-pn-k=1n+1∑k=0nn+1!k+1!n+1-k+1!pk+11-pn+1-k+1=1n+1∑k=0nn+1k+1pk+11-pn+1-k+1=1n+11-1-pn+1

The last sum has to be equal to one since we add up all probabilities of Binomial with parametersn+1andp

02

Final Answer

(c) If player Ais a winner, the expected number of money that player Awins is equal to 1+B-1. If player Ais not a winner, he wins 0. Hence, E(X)can be written as

EX=E1+B-1.p

which implies (using part (b))

E1+B-1=EXp=1-1-pn+1n+1p

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