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Show that

P(H∣E)P(G∣E)=P(H)P(G)P(E∣H)P(E∣G)

Suppose that, before new evidence is observed, the hypothesis His three times as likely to be true as is the hypothesis G.

If the new evidence is twice as likely when Gis true as it is when His true, which hypothesis is more likely after the evidence has been observed?

Short Answer

Expert verified

We use the definition of condition probability,P(H|E)>P(G|E)this follows and proven in the equation.

Step by step solution

01

Definition of Condition probability

The possibility of a happening or outcome occurring supported by the occurrence of a preceding event or outcome is understood as a contingent probability.

The updated probability of the next or conditional, event is multiplied by the probability of the preceding, or conditional, event to get introduce contingent probability.

02

Prove the statement

Prove:

P(H∣E)P(G∣E)=P(H)P(G)×P(E∣H)P(E∣G)

P(B)isn't capable 0for occurrences AandB

P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)

Begin with the LHS and apply the definition:

P(H|E)P(G|E)=P(H∩E)P(E)P(G∩E)P(E)

=P(H∩E)P(G∩E)

and on the RHS, using the identical definition:

P(G)P(H)×P(E|H)P(E|G)=P(H)P(G)×P(H∩E)P(H)P(G∩E)P(G)

==P(H∩E)P(G∩E)

As a result, it's been established.

03

To search outP(H∣E)>P(G∣E) this follows and proven within the equation.

The following statements are converted into mathematical equations.

P(H)=3P(G)

P(E|G)=2P(E|H)

Using the formula,

P(H|E)P(G|E)=P(H)P(G)×P(E|H)P(E|G)=P(H)P(G)×P(E|H)P(E|G)

Replace the given facts together with your own.

localid="1649658537441" P(H|E)P(G|E)=3P(G)P(G)×P(E|H)2P(E|H)=3×12=1.5

multiplying by P(G|E)and equating the primary and last expressions:

P(H|E)=1.5×P(G|E)⇒P(H∣E)>P(G∣E)

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Let A,B, and Cbe events relating to the experiment of rolling a pair of dice.

(a) If localid="1647938016434" P(A|C)>P(B|C)and localid="1647938126689" P(A|Cc)>P(B|Cc)either prove that localid="1647938033174" P(A)>P(B)or give a counterexample by defining events Band Cfor which that relationship is not true.

(b) If localid="1647938162035" P(A|C)>P(A|Cc)and P(B|C)>P(B|Cc)either prove that P(AB|C)>P(AB|Cc)or give a counterexample by defining events A,Band Cfor which that relationship is not true. Hint: Let Cbe the event that the sum of a pair of dice is 10; let Abe the event that the first die lands on 6; let Bbe the event that the second die lands on 6.

Consider a sample of size 3drawn in the following manner: We start with an urn containing 5white and 7red balls. At each stage, a ball is drawn and its color is noted. The ball is then returned to the urn, along with an additional ball of the same color. Find the probability that the sample will contain exactly

(a) 0white balls;

(b) 1white ball;

(c) 3white balls;

(d) 2white balls.

A simplified model for the movement of the price of a stock supposes that on each day the stock’s price either moves up 1unit with probabilitypor moves down 1unit with probability 1−p.The changes on different days are assumed to be independent.

(a) What is the probability that after2days the stock will be at its original price?

(b) What is the probability that after 3days the stock’s price will have increased by 1 unit?

(c) Given that after 3days the stock’s price has increased by 1 unit, what is the probability that it went up on the first day?

An urn contains 6white and9black balls. If 4balls are to be randomly selected without replacement, what is the probability that the first 2selected is white and the last 2 black?

In a certain community, 36 percent of the families own a dog and 22 percent of the families that own a dog also own a cat. In addition, 30 percent of the families own a cat. What is (a) the probability that a randomly selected family owns both a dog and a cat? (b) the conditional probability that a randomly selected family owns a dog given that it owns a cat?

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