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Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted? A random sample of \(n_{1}=250\) people in Chicago ages \(18-25\) showed that \(r_{1}=45\) said yes. Another random sample of \(n_{2}=280\) people in Chicago ages \(35-45\) showed that \(r_{2}=71\) said yes (based on information from the National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago). Does this indicate that the population proportion of trusting people in Chicago is higher for the older group? Use \(\alpha=0.05\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
Yes, the older group has a higher proportion of trusting people.

Step by step solution

01

State the Hypotheses

We need to determine whether the proportion of trusting people is higher in the 35-45 age group than in the 18-25 group. Set up the null hypothesis, \( H_0 \), which states there is no difference or that the younger group's trust level is equal to or higher than the older group's: \( p_1 \geq p_2 \). Thus, the alternative hypothesis \( H_a \) is \( p_1 < p_2 \), indicating that the older group's proportion is higher.
02

Calculate the Sample Proportions

Calculate the sample proportion for each group. For the 18-25 group, it's \( \hat{p}_1 = \frac{r_1}{n_1} = \frac{45}{250} = 0.18 \). For the 35-45 group, it's \( \hat{p}_2 = \frac{71}{280} = 0.2536 \).
03

Find the Pooled Sample Proportion

Compute the pooled proportion, \( \hat{p} \), which is the total number of successes divided by the total number of individuals: \[ \hat{p} = \frac{r_1 + r_2}{n_1 + n_2} = \frac{45 + 71}{250 + 280} = \frac{116}{530} \approx 0.2189 \].
04

Calculate the Standard Error

The standard error (SE) of the difference between two proportions is given by: \[ SE = \sqrt{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p}) \left( \frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2} \right)} \] Substituting the values: \[ SE = \sqrt{0.2189(1-0.2189) \left( \frac{1}{250} + \frac{1}{280} \right)} \approx 0.041 \].
05

Calculate the Test Statistic

The test statistic \( z \) is calculated by: \[ z = \frac{\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2}{SE} = \frac{0.18 - 0.2536}{0.041} \approx -1.796 \].
06

Determine the Critical Value and Decision Rule

For a significance level of \( \alpha = 0.05 \) and a one-tailed test, the critical value is \( z = -1.645 \). If the calculated test statistic is less than \(-1.645\), we reject the null hypothesis.
07

Conclusion

Since the test statistic \(-1.796\) is less than the critical value \(-1.645\), we reject the null hypothesis. This indicates that there is sufficient evidence at the \( \alpha = 0.05 \) significance level to conclude that the proportion of trusting people is higher in the 35-45 age group than in the 18-25 age group.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportions
When conducting hypothesis testing, understanding sample proportions is essential. A sample proportion is a measure that tells us the fraction of individuals in a sample that displays a particular characteristic.
In our exercise, we wanted to see how many people in different age groups reported "yes" when asked if most people can be trusted.
For the younger group (ages 18-25), the sample size is 250, with 45 people saying "yes." As a result, the sample proportion, \(\hat{p}_1\), is calculated by dividing the number of successes (people saying "yes") by the total number of responses: \[ \hat{p}_1 = \frac{45}{250} = 0.18 \].
So, 18% of the younger group said people can be trusted, according to this sample.Similarly, the older group has a sample size of 280, and 71 said "yes," resulting in a sample proportion,\(\hat{p}_2\): \[ \hat{p}_2 = \frac{71}{280} \approx 0.2536 \].
This indicates about 25.36% from the older group trust people. Sample proportions give us valuable insights before making statistical inferences.
Pooled Sample Proportion
The pooled sample proportion is an aggregation of sample data, combining multiple groups to make certain calculations more reliable. It's especially useful when you want to compare two proportions by ensuring that each sample's potential variability is accounted for.For this exercise, we combine both age groups to determine this pooled sample proportion, \(\hat{p}\).
The formula involves summing all the successes (total "yes" responses) and dividing by the total number of people from both samples: \[ \hat{p} = \frac{45 + 71}{250 + 280} = \frac{116}{530} \approx 0.2189 \].
This result indicates that about 21.89% of the overall sample think most people can be trusted.Using a pooled sample proportion helps calculate the standard error used in hypothesis testing and ensures accurate inferential statistics between these groups.
Standard Error
Standard error (SE) is a crucial component of hypothesis testing as it measures the variability or dispersion of sample statistics, not from individual data, but from multiple sample means or proportions.To find the standard error of the difference between two sample proportions, the following formula is used:\[ SE = \sqrt{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p}) \left( \frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2} \right)} \],where \(\hat{p}\) is the pooled sample proportion.
From our problem, we calculate:\[ SE = \sqrt{0.2189(1-0.2189) \left( \frac{1}{250} + \frac{1}{280} \right)} \approx 0.041 \].
This standard error quantifies the average distance that the observed proportions (from the samples) deviate from the true population proportion. Understanding SE helps streamline conclusions about statistical significance and whether differences are due to chance.
Test Statistic
The test statistic is a standard score that quantifies the degree to which the sample data diverges from the null hypothesis. It's calculated by \[ z = \frac{\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2}{SE} \].
For our investigation into trust between age groups, we determined:\[ z = \frac{0.18 - 0.2536}{0.041} \approx -1.796 \].This test statistic is compared against critical values to decide whether to reject the null hypothesis. In simpler terms, it tells us how many standard deviations away our sample difference is from the expected difference (given the null hypothesis that there is no difference in proportions). The further the test statistic is into the tail, the less likely the null hypothesis is true. Hence, it is crucial for drawing inferential conclusions.
Critical Value
Critical values are thresholds in hypothesis testing that define regions where the null hypothesis would be rejected. Depending on the desired significance level (\(\alpha\)), usually set before conducting tests, these values determine the cutoffs for decision making.For the exercise given, we used \(\alpha = 0.05\) for a one-tailed test. The critical value is \(-1.645\).
Since the calculated test statistic \(-1.796\) fell below this critical value, it led to rejecting the null hypothesis.Essentially, critical values are pivotal for hypothesis testing as they offer criteria to decide whether observed results are due to random chance or if actual differences exist between compared groups, thus guiding us towards conclusions. This ensures that we are adequately confident in our statistical inferences.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Is there a relationship between confidence intervals and two-tailed hypothesis tests? Let \(c\) be the level of confidence used to construct a confidence interval from sample data. Let \(\alpha\) be the level of significance for a two-tailed hypothesis test. The following statement applies to hypothesis tests of the mean. (A corresponding relationship between confidence intervals and two-tailed hypothesis tests also is valid for other parameters, such as \(p, \mu_{1}-\mu_{2}\), and \(p_{1}-p_{2}\), which we will study in Sections \(8.3\) and \(8.5 .\).) Whenever the value of \(k\) given in the null hypothesis falls outside the \(c=1-\alpha\) confidence interval for the parameter, we reject \(H_{0} .\) For example, consider a two-tailed hypothesis test with \(\alpha=0.01\) and $$ H_{0}: \mu=20 \quad H_{1}: \mu \neq 20 $$ A random sample of size 36 has a sample mean \(\bar{x}=22\) from a population with standard deviation \(\sigma=4\). (a) What is the value of \(c=1-\alpha ?\) Using the methods of Chapter 7, construct a \(1-\alpha\) confidence interval for \(\mu\) from the sample data. What is the value of \(\mu\) given in the null hypothesis (i.e., what is \(k) ?\) Is this value in the confidence interval? Do we reject or fail to reject \(H_{0}\) based on this information? (b) Using methods of this chapter, find the \(P\) -value for the hypothesis test. Do we reject or fail to reject \(H_{0}\) ? Compare your result to that of part (a).

Alisha is conducting a paired differences test for a "before \(\left(B\right.\) score) and after \((A \text { score })^{n}\) situation. She is interested in testing whether the average of the "before" scores is higher than that of the "after" scores. (a) To use a right-tailed test, how should Alisha construct the differences between the "before" and "after" scores? (b) To use a left-tailed test, how should she construct the differences between the "before" and "after" scores?

When conducting a test for the difference of means for two independent populations \(x_{1}\) and \(x_{2}\), what alternate hypothesis would indicate that the mean of the \(x_{2}\) population is smaller than that of the \(x_{1}\) population? Express the alternate hypothesis in two ways.

For a Student's \(t\) distribution with \(d . f .=10\) and \(t=2.930\), (a) find an interval containing the corresponding \(P\) -value for a two-tailed test. (b) find an interval containing the corresponding \(P\) -value for a right- tailed test.

For one binomial experiment, 200 binomial trials produced 60 successes. For a second independent binomial experiment, 400 binomial trials produced 156 successes. At the \(5 \%\) level of significance, test the claim that the probability of success for the second binomial experiment is greater than that for the first. (a) Compute the pooled probability of success for the two experiments. (b) What distribution does the sample test statistic follow? Explain. (c) State the hypotheses. (d) Compute \(\hat{p}_{1}-\hat{p}_{2}\) and the corresponding sample test statistic. (e) Find the \(P\) -value of the sample test statistic. (f) Conclude the test. (g) The results.

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