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Critical Thinking Let \(r\) be a binomial random variable representing the number of successes out of \(n\) trials. (a) Explain why the sample space for \(r\) consists of the set \(\\{0,1,2, \ldots, n\\}\) and why the sum of the probabilities of all the entries in the entire sample space must be 1 . (b) Explain why \(P(r \geq 1)=1-P(0)\). (c) Explain why \(P(r \geq 2)=1-P(0)-P(1)\). (d) Explain why \(P(r \geq m)=1-P() 0-P(1)-\cdots-P(m-1)\) for \(1 \leq m \leq n\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) The sample space is \(\{0, 1, ..., n\}\) because each trial can result in different numbers of successes; the sum of probabilities is 1 because they cover all outcomes. (b) \(P(r \geq 1) = 1 - P(0)\) because no success is the complement of at least one success. (c) \(P(r \geq 2) = 1 - P(0) - P(1)\) excludes 0 and 1 successes. (d) \(P(r \geq m) = 1 - P(0) - ... - P(m-1)\) excludes fewer than \(m\) successes.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Sample Space

In a binomial experiment, each trial results in a success or failure, and each trial is independent of the others. Therefore, if there are \(n\) trials, the number of successes \(r\) can range from 0 (no successes) to \(n\) (all trials are successful). Thus, the sample space, which lists all possible outcomes, is \(\{0, 1, 2, \ldots, n\}\). The sum of probabilities of all possible outcomes (covering all eventual successes) must equal 1, as this covers the exhaustive set of mutually exclusive outcomes.
02

Explaining P(r ≥ 1)=1-P(0)

The probability \(P(r \geq 1)\) represents the event that there is at least one success in the trials. This is simply the complement of \(r = 0\), where no successes occur. Thus, \(P(r \geq 1) = 1 - P(0)\), as the two events \(\{r \geq 1\} \) and \(\{r = 0\}\) are complementary, and their probabilities sum to 1.
03

Explaining P(r ≥ 2)=1-P(0)-P(1)

For \(P(r \geq 2)\), we seek the probability of achieving two or more successes. This scenario excludes 0 successes and 1 success, thus \(P(r \geq 2) = 1 - P(0) - P(1)\). Here, the probability of having 0 or 1 success is subtracted from 1, accounting for all other possible outcomes.
04

Generalizing to P(r ≥ m)=1-P(0)-...-P(m-1)

The probability \(P(r \geq m)\) is concerned with getting at least \(m\) successes. Therefore, we exclude all outcomes with fewer than \(m\) successes (i.e., \(P(0), P(1), \ldots, P(m-1)\)). The equation \(P(r \geq m) = 1 - P(0) - P(1) - ... - P(m-1)\) sums all probabilities for fewer than \(m\) successes, and subtracts this from 1 to cover all remaining potential outcomes.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Space
In probability theory, sample space is a fundamental concept. It represents all possible outcomes of a probability experiment. For a binomial experiment, which involves a fixed number of trials, each resulting in a success or failure, the sample space is quite specific. Imagine you are conducting a series of flips with a coin, where each flip could either land on heads for a success or tails for a failure. If you flip the coin three times, the number of times you could get heads can be between 0 and 3. This is exactly the idea behind the sample space for a binomial random variable, which is represented as \(\{0, 1, 2, \ldots, n\}\). Here, \(n\) stands for the total number of trials, and \(r\) is the number of successes. Therefore:
  • \(0\) signifies no successes.
  • \(n\) signifies every trial is a success.
The simplicity of the sample space in a binomial experiment is that it comprehensively lists all possibilities over the set number of trials.
Probability Complement
The concept of a probability complement is vital to understanding certain probability equations. Imagine an event that can either happen or not happen. The probability of it occurring is complementary to it not occurring. For instance, if we say that there is a chance it might rain today, there's an opposite chance it will not rain. The probability of rain, plus the probability of no rain, equals 1. This is known because probabilities of complementary events must sum up to 1.In a binomial experiment, when we refer to \(P(r \geq 1) = 1 - P(0)\), we are utilizing the complement rule. Here:
  • \(P(r \geq 1)\) is the probability of having at least one success.
  • \(P(0)\) is the probability of no successes.
So, to find the chance of at least one success, we simply take one minus the probability of zero successes. This straightforward method exemplifies the efficiency of using complements when dealing with probabilities.
Mutually Exclusive Events
In probability, mutually exclusive events cannot occur at the same time. If one event occurs, the other cannot. Imagine rolling a single die: getting a 3 and a 5 in a single roll is impossible. For binomial probabilities, understanding mutually exclusive events helps in calculating probabilities more effectively. Each outcome in the sample space of a binomial distribution is mutually exclusive. For example:
  • If you have carried out trials and want the probability of getting exactly 1 success, consider this event exclusive to getting 0 or 2 successes.
  • The outcomes of \(r = 0\), \(r = 1\), \(r = 2\), and so forth, for a total of \(n\) trials cannot happen simultaneously.
Using this principle, to find the probability of at least \(m\) successes, we exclude the probabilities of fewer than \(m\) successes. The mutually exclusive property allows us to subtract these cumulative probabilities from 1, clarifying how the probabilities must be distributed across possible outcomes. This principle is essential when creating comprehensive probability models for real-world examples.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Law Enforcement: Burglaries The Honolulu Advertiser stated that in Honolulu there was an average of 661 burglaries per 100,000 households in a given year. In the Kohola Drive neighborhood there are 316 homes. Let \(r=\) number of these homes that will be burglarized in a year. (a) Explain why the Poisson approximation to the binomial would be a good choice for the random variable \(r\). What is \(n\) ? What is \(p ?\) What is \(\lambda\) to the nearest tenth? (b) What is the probability that there will be no burglaries this year in the Kohola Drive neighborhood? (c) What is the probability that there will be no more than one burglary in the Kohola Drive neighborhood? (d) What is the probability that there will be two or more burglaries in the Kohola Drive neighborhood?

Basic Computation: Binomial Distribution Consider a binomial experiment with \(n=7\) trials where the probability of success on a single trial is \(p=0.30\). (a) Find \(P(r=0)\). (b) Find \(P(r \geq 1)\) by using the complement rule.

Binomial Probabilities: Coin Flip A fair quarter is flipped three times. For each of the following probabilities, use the formula for the binomial distribution and a calculator to compute the requested probability. Next, look up the probability in Table 3 of Appendix II and compare the table result with the computed result. (a) Find the probability of getting exactly three heads. (b) Find the probability of getting exactly two heads. (c) Find the probability of getting two or more heads. (d) Find the probability of getting exactly three tails.

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Psychology: Myers-Briggs Approximately \(75 \%\) of all marketing personnel are extroverts, whereas about \(60 \%\) of all computer programmers are introverts (Source: \(A\) Guide to the Development and Use of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, by Myers and McCaulley). (a) At a meeting of 15 marketing personnel, what is the probability that 10 or more are extroverts? What is the probability that 5 or more are extroverts? What is the probability that all are extroverts? (b) In a group of 5 computer programmers, what is the probability that none are introverts? What is the probability that 3 or more are introverts? What is the probability that all are introverts?

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