/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 16 The following data are based on ... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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The following data are based on information from the Harvard Business Review (Vol. 72, No. 1). Let \(x\) be the number of different research programs, and let \(y\) be the mean number of patents per program. As in any business, a company can spread itself too thin. For example, too many research programs might lead to a decline in overall research productivity. The following data are for a collection of pharmaceutical companies and their research programs: $$ \begin{array}{c|rrrrrr} \hline x & 10 & 12 & 14 & 16 & 18 & 20 \\ \hline y & 1.8 & 1.7 & 1.5 & 1.4 & 1.0 & 0.7 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ Complete parts (a) through (e), given \(\Sigma x=90, \Sigma y=8.1, \Sigma x^{2}=1420\), \(\Sigma y^{2}=11.83, \Sigma x y=113.8\), and \(r \approx-0.973 .\) (f) Suppose a pharmaceutical company has 15 different research programs. What does the least-squares equation forecast for \(y=\) mean number of patents per program?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The least-squares equation predicts approximately 1.35 patents per program for 15 research programs.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Least-Squares Equation

The least-squares equation is used to predict the value of a dependent variable, in this case, the mean number of patents per program \(y\), based on an independent variable, the number of research programs \(x\). The equation is typically in the form: \( y = mx + b \), where \(m\) is the slope and \(b\) is the y-intercept.
02

Calculate the Slope (m)

The formula for the slope \(m\) in the least-squares equation is: \[ m = \frac{n(\Sigma xy) - (\Sigma x)(\Sigma y)}{n(\Sigma x^2) - (\Sigma x)^2} \] Substituting the given values into this formula: \[ m = \frac{6(113.8) - (90)(8.1)}{6(1420) - (90)^2} \] Calculate \(m\):- Numerator: \(6 \times 113.8 - 90 \times 8.1 = 682.8 - 729 = -46.2\)- Denominator: \(6 \times 1420 - 8100 = 8520 - 8100 = 420\)So, \[ m = \frac{-46.2}{420} \approx -0.11 \]
03

Calculate the Y-Intercept (b)

The formula for the intercept \(b\) is: \[ b = \frac{\Sigma y - m\Sigma x}{n} \] Using the slope found in Step 2, \(-0.11\):\[ b = \frac{8.1 - (-0.11 \times 90)}{6} \]Calculate \(b\):- \(-0.11 \times 90 = -9.9\)- \(8.1 - (-9.9) = 8.1 + 9.9 = 18\)- \(b = \frac{18}{6} = 3\)
04

Write the Least-Squares Equation

Substitute the values of \(m\) and \(b\) into the linear equation form: \[ y = -0.11x + 3 \] This is the least-squares equation that can be used to estimate \(y\), the mean number of patents, based on \(x\), the number of research programs.
05

Use the Equation for Prediction

Substitute \(x = 15\) into the equation derived in Step 4 to find the forecast for the mean number of patents per program.\[ y = -0.11(15) + 3 \]Calculate:- \(-0.11 \times 15 = -1.65\)- \(3 - 1.65 = 1.35\)Therefore, for \(x = 15\), \(y \approx 1.35\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Correlation Coefficient
The correlation coefficient, often denoted as \( r \), measures the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two variables. A correlation close to 1 implies a strong positive relationship, whereas a correlation close to -1 indicates a strong negative relationship. In this exercise, the correlation coefficient \( r \approx -0.973 \) suggests a strong negative relationship between the number of research programs \( x \) and the mean number of patents \( y \). This means that as the number of research programs increases, the average number of patents per program tends to decrease.

Understanding this negative correlation helps businesses in planning research activities. It provides a quantitative measure of how different research programs impact productivity, aiding in decision-making processes.
  • Strong negative correlation: \( r \approx -0.973 \)
  • Implication: Increased programs, decreased average patents
  • Business Application: Strategic research planning
Linear Equation
A linear equation takes the form \( y = mx + b \), where \( m \) is the slope, and \( b \) is the y-intercept. This equation represents a straight line when plotted on a graph.

In the context of this exercise, the least-squares regression line is used, calculated to best fit the given data points by minimizing the sum of the squares of the vertical distances of the points from the line. The slope \( m = -0.11 \) indicates that for each additional research program, the mean number of patents decreases by 0.11. The y-intercept, \( b = 3 \), signifies the starting point of the mean number of patents when there are no research programs, purely theoretical in this practical scenario.
  • Form: \( y = mx + b \)
  • Slope \( m \): Rate of change (here, \(-0.11\))
  • Y-intercept \( b \): Initial value (here, 3)
  • Application: Predictive analysis in research productivity
Forecasting
Forecasting is a technique used to predict future values based on past data trends. It's crucial in business to anticipate scenarios and plan accordingly. In this exercise, after determining the linear equation \( y = -0.11x + 3 \), we use it to forecast the mean number of patents per program when a company has 15 research programs.

By substituting \( x = 15 \) into the equation, we find that the forecasted mean number of patents is \( y \approx 1.35 \). This told the company what they might expect as an outcome in terms of innovation productivity when having 15 different research initiatives. Such predictions help in setting realistic goals and evaluating the potential need for strategy adjustments.
  • Purpose: Predict future data points
  • Equation used: \( y = -0.11(15) + 3 \)
  • Forecast result: \( y \approx 1.35 \)
  • Significance: Guides strategic planning
Mathematical Modeling
Mathematical modeling involves creating abstract representations of systems using mathematical concepts and equations. It is critical for analyzing and making predictions in various fields, including business, economics, and science.

In the given exercise, mathematical modeling is applied by forming a linear regression model to represent the relationship between the number of research programs and the mean number of patents. This model helps interpret real-world scenarios and forecast outcomes through the derived linear equation.

The modeling process involves:
  • Gathering data: Understand the variables \( x \) and \( y \)
  • Formulating the model: Calculate the slope and intercept
  • Analyzing relationships: Examine correlations and effects
  • Applying the model: Use it for predictions and planning
This approach enables companies to visualize data trends and make informed decisions regarding resource allocation and program management.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The initial visual impact of a scatter diagram depends on the scales used on the \(x\) and \(y\) axes. Consider the following data: $$ \begin{array}{l|llllll} \hline x & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 & 6 \\ \hline y & 1 & 4 & 6 & 3 & 6 & 7 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ (a) Make a scatter diagram using the same scale on both the \(x\) and \(y\) axes (i.e make sure the unit lengths on the two axes are equal). (b) Make a scatter diagram using a scale on the \(y\) axis that is twice as long a that on the \(x\) axis. (c) Make a scatter diagram using a scale on the \(y\) axis that is half as long as tha on the \(x\) axis. (d) On each of the three graphs, draw the straight line that you think best fit the data points. How do the slopes (or directions) of the three lines appea to change? (Note: The actual slopes will be the same; they just appea different because of the choice of scale factors.)

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