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Chapter 1: Problem 65

A forecaster at the National Hurricane Center needs to estimate the time until a hurricane with high probability of striking South Florida will hit Miami. Is it better to overestimate or underestimate? Explain your answer.

Short Answer

Expert verified
It is better to overestimate the time until a hurricane will hit Miami. This is to ensure there is ample time for proper preparation and execution of safety measures, thus reducing potential risks and damages.

Step by step solution

01

Consideration of Overestimation

First, consider the implications of overestimating the time of the hurricane's arrival. Overestimating might mean that preparations for the hurricane are initiated early, leading to potentially unnecessary usage of resources if the hurricane doesn't arrive, or if it arrives later than predicted. However, overestimation also ensures that, in case the hurricane hits earlier than anticipated, necessary measures and precautions have already been taken, minimizing damage.
02

Consideration of Underestimation

Secondly, take into account the risk of underestimating the hurricane's arrival. This could mean less preparation time, and in case of a sudden surge in the hurricane's speed, might lead to insufficient preparation, and more risks and damage to property and life.
03

Assessing Risk and Final Judgement

Finally it's important to weigh the potential advantages and disadvantages of both scenarios. In light of potential risks and damages if a hurricane strikes unexpectedly, it could be safer to overestimate the time of arrival. By doing this forecasters are providing the maximum amount of time possible for preparation.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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