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Internet sites often vanish or move so that references to them can鈥檛 be followed. In fact, 87%of Internet sites referred to in major scientific journals still work within two years of publication. Suppose we randomly select 7Internet references from scientific journals.

a. Find the probability that all 7references still work two years later.

b. What鈥檚 the probability that at least 1of them doesn鈥檛 work two years later?

c. Explain why the calculation in part (a) may not be valid if we choose 7Internet references from one issue of the same journal.

Short Answer

Expert verified

Part a. Probability that randomly selected all 7references still work two years later is approx. 0.3773.

Part b. Probability that at least 1of the 7references doesn鈥檛 work two years later is 0.6227.

Part c. It is not necessary that references are independent of each other.

The multiplication rule for independent events cannot be applied.

Step by step solution

01

Part a. Step 1. Given information

87%of the Internet sites still work within two years of publication.

7Internet references from scientific journal are chosen at random.

02

Part a. Step 2. Calculation

Two events are independent, if the probability of occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of occurrence of other event.

According to multiplication rule for independent events,

P(AandB)=P(AB)=P(A)P(B)

Let

A: One reference still works two years later

B: 7references still work two years later

Now,

Probability for the reference still works two years later,

P(A)=87%=0.87

Since the references are selected at random, it would be more convenient to assume that references are independent of each other.

Thus,

For probability that 7references still work two years later, apply multiplication rule for independent events:

P(B)=P(A)P(A)...P(A)=(P(A))7=(0.87)70.3773

Thus,

Probability for the randomly selected all 7references still work two years later is approx.0.3773.

03

Part b. Step 1. Calculation

According to complement rule,

P(Ac)=P(notA)=1-P(A)

Let

B:7 references still work two years later

Bc:None of the 7references still work two years later

From Part (a),

We have

Probability for randomly selected all 7references still work two years later,

P(B)0.3773

We have of find the probability for at least 1of the 7references does not work two years later.

That means

None of the 7references works two years later.

Apply the complement rule:

P(Bc)=1-P(B)=1-0.3773=0.6227

Thus,

Probability that at least 1of the 7references does not work two years later is0.6227.

04

Part c. Step 1. Calculation

Two events are independent, if the probability of occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of occurrence of other event.

According to multiplication rule for independent events,

P(AandB)=P(AB)=P(A)P(B)

In Part (a),

Multiplication rule for independent events has been used.

When 7references are chosen from one issue of same journal, we are more likely to select some references from the same website.

That means

If one of the 7references no longer works, it is possible that other references also no longer work.

This implies

The references will be no longer independent.

Thus,

Use of the multiplication for independent events would be inappropriate.

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