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Chapter 5: Q. 7 (page 309)

An unenlightened gambler

a. A gambler knows that red and black are equally likely to occur on each spin of a

roulette wheel. He observes that 5 consecutive reds have occurred and bets heavily on

black at the next spin. Asked why, he explains that 鈥渂lack is due.鈥� Explain to the

gambler what is wrong with this reasoning.

b. After hearing you explain why red and black are still equally likely after 5reds on the

roulette wheel, the gambler moves to a card game. He is dealt 5straight red cards from

a standard deck with26red cards and 26black cards. He remembers what you said and

assumes that the next card dealt in the same hand is equally likely to be red or black.

Explain to the gambler what is wrong with this reasoning.

Short Answer

Expert verified

a) Each spin is independent, receiving red and black has the same probability even after you know five reds have occurred.

b)No, because five red cards have already been eliminated from the card deck, leaving the deck with more black than red cards.

Step by step solution

01

Part (a) Step 1: Given information

We have to tell what is wrong with this reasoning.

02

Part (a) Step 2: Explanation

Because each spin is independent, receiving red and black has the same probability even after you know five reds have occurred. As a result, red has a 50% probability of winning, and black has a 50% chance of winning.

03

Part (b) Step 1: Given information

We have to explain to the gambler what is wrong with this reasoning.

04

Part (b) Step 2: Explanation

No, because five red cards have already been eliminated from the card deck, leaving the deck with more black than red cards.

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