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Many fire stations handle more emergency calls for medical help than for fires. At one fire station, 81%of incoming calls are for medical help. Suppose we choose 4incoming calls to the station at random.

a. Find the probability that all 4calls are for medical help.

b. What鈥檚 the probability that at least 1of the calls is not for medical help?

c. Explain why the calculation in part (a) may not be valid if we choose 4 consecutive calls to the station.

Short Answer

Expert verified

Part a. Probability for the randomly chosen all 4 calls are for medical help is approx. 0.43305

Part b. Probability that at least 1of the calls is not for medical help is 0.5695.

Part c. It is not necessary that calls are independent of each other.

Step by step solution

01

Part a. Step 1. Given information

81%of the incoming calls are for medical help.

4incoming calls to the station are chosen at random.

02

Part a. Step 2. Calculation

Two events are independent, if the probability of occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of occurrence of other event.

According to multiplication rule for independent events,

P(AandB)=P(AB)=P(A)P(B)

Let

A: One incoming call is for medical help

B: 4incoming calls are for medical help

Now,

Probability for the incoming call is for medical help,

P(A)=81%=0.81

Since the incoming calls are selected at random, it would be more convenient to assume that incoming calls are independent of each other.

Thus,

For probability that 4incoming calls are for medical help, apply multiplication rule for independent events:

role="math" localid="1664275493508" P(B)=P(A)P(A)P(A)P(A)=(P(A))4=(0.81)40.4305

Thus,

Probability for the randomly selected all 4incoming calls are for medical help is approx.0.4305

03

Part b. Step 1. Calculation

According to complement rule,

P(Ac)=P(notA)=1-P(A)

Let

B4 incoming calls are for medical help

Bc:None of the 4incoming calls are for medical help

From Part (a),

We have

Probability for randomly selected all 4 incoming calls are for medical help,

P(B)0.4305

We have of find the probability for at least 1of the calls is not for medical help.

That means

None of the 4incoming calls is for medical help.

Apply the complement rule:

P(Bc)=1-P(B)=1-0.4305=0.5695

Thus,

Probability that at least 1of the calls is not for medical help is0.5695

04

Part c. Step 1. Calculation

Two events are independent, if the probability of occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of occurrence of other event.

According to multiplication rule for independent events,

P(AandB)=P(AB)=P(A)P(B)

In Part (a),

Multiplication rule for independent events has been used.

When 4consecutive calls are chosen, there may be some possibility that occurrence of these 4calls would be same.

That means

4consecutive calls may be for the same accident when compared to the randomly chosen 4calls.

Thus,

This will affect the probability for medical call if these 4calls are about the same occurrence.

This implies

The incoming calls will be no longer independent.

Thus,

Use of the multiplication for independent events would be inappropriate.

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