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Chapter 5: Probability: What Are the Chances?

Q. 26E

Page 312

A total of 25repetitions of the simulation were performed. The number of makes in each set of 10simulated shots was recorded on the dotplot. What is the approximate probability that a 47%shooter makes 5or more shots in 10attempts?

(a) 510

(b) 310

(c) 1225

(d) 325

(e)47100

Q. 27

Page 313

Suppose this player attempts 10shots in a game and makes only 3of them. Does this provide convincing evidence that she is less than a 47%shooter?

a. Yes, because 3/10(30%) is less than 47%

b. Yes, because she never made 47%of her shots in the simulation.

c. No, because it is plausible (believable) that she would make 3or fewer shots by chance alone.

d. No, because the simulation was only repeated 25times.

e. No, because more than half of the simulated results were less than47%

Q. 27

Page 313

Ten percent of U.S. households contain 5or more people. You want to simulate choosing a household at random and recording 鈥淵es鈥 if it contains 5or more people. Which of these is a correct assignment of digits for this simulation?

a.Odd=Yes;Even=No

b.0=Yes;19=No

c.05=Yes;69=No

d.04=Yes;59=No

e. None of these

Q. 27E

Page 313

Suppose this player attempts 10shots in a game and makes only 3of them. Does this provide convincing evidence that she is less than a 47%shooter?

a. Yes, because 310(30%) is less than 47%.

b. Yes, because she never made 47%of her shots in the simulation.

c. No, because it is plausible (believable) that she would make 3or fewer shots by chance alone.

d. No, because the simulation was only repeated 25times.

e. No, because more than half of the simulated results were less than47%.

Q. 28

Page 313

Ten percent of U.S. households contain 5or more people. You want to simulate choosing a household at random and recording 鈥淵es鈥 if it contains 5or more people. Which of these is a correct assignment of digits for this simulation?

a. Odd=Yes;Even=No

b. 0=Yes;1-9=No

c. 0-5=Yes;6-9=No

d. 0-4=Yes;5-9=No

e. None of these

Q. 29

Page 313

To find out what proportion of Americans support proposed Medicare legislation to help pay medical costs, the AARP conducted a survey of their members (people over age 50who pay membership dues). One of the questions was: 鈥淓ven if this plan won鈥檛 affect you personally either way, do you think it should be passed so that people with low incomes or people with high drug costs can be helped?鈥 Of the respondents, 75%answered 鈥淵es.鈥

a. Describe how undercoverage might lead to bias in this study. Explain the likely direction of the bias.

b. Describe how the wording of the question might lead to bias in this study. Explain the likely direction of the bias.

Q. 29

Page 313

AARP, and Medicare (4.1) To find out what proportion of Americans support proposed

Medicare legislation to help pay medical costs, the AARP conducted a survey of their

members (people over age 50 who pay membership dues). One of the questions was:

鈥淓ven if this plan won鈥檛 affect you personally either way, do you think it should be passed

so that people with low incomes or people with high drug costs can be helped?鈥 Of the

respondents, 75% answered 鈥淵es.鈥

a. Describe how undercoverage might lead to bias in this study. Explain the likely

direction of the bias.

b. Describe how the wording of the question might lead to bias in this study. Explain the

likely direction of the bias.

Q. 3

Page 308

Mammograms Many women choose to have annual mammograms to screen for breast

cancer after age 40. A mammogram isn鈥檛 foolproof. Sometimes the test suggests that a

woman has breast cancer when she really doesn鈥檛 (a 鈥渇alse positive鈥). Other times the test

says that a woman doesn鈥檛 have breast cancer when she actually does (a 鈥渇alse negative鈥).

Suppose the false negative rate for a mammogram is 0.10.

a. Explain what this probability means.

b. Which is a more serious error in this case: a false positive or a false negative? Justify

your answer.

Q. 30

Page 313

Waiting to park Do drivers take longer to leave their parking spaces when

someone is waiting? Researchers hung out in a parking lot and collected some data. The

graphs and numerical summaries display information about how long it took drivers to

exit their spaces.

a. Write a few sentences comparing these distributions.

b. Can we conclude that having someone waiting causes drivers to leave their spaces more

slowly? Why or why not?

Q. 30

Page 313

Do drivers take longer to leave their parking spaces when someone is waiting? Researchers hung out in a parking lot and collected some data. The graphs and numerical summaries display information about how long it took drivers to exit their spaces.

a. Write a few sentences comparing these distributions.

b. Can we conclude that having someone waiting causes drivers to leave their spaces more slowly? Why or why not?

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