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For the study of Jordanian children in Exercise 2 , the sample mean hemoglobin level was \(11.3 \mathrm{~g} / \mathrm{dl}\) and the sample standard deviation was \(1.6 \mathrm{~g} / \mathrm{dl} .\) A significance test yields a \(P\) -value of 0.0016 . (a) Explain what it would mean for the null hypothesis to be true in this setting. (b) Interpret the \(P\) -value in context.

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) The null hypothesis would be that the hemoglobin level is as expected. (b) A 0.0016 P-value suggests strong evidence against the null hypothesis.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Null Hypothesis

In hypothesis testing, the null hypothesis (denoted as \( H_0 \)) is a statement of no effect or no difference. In the context of this exercise, the null hypothesis would posit that the average hemoglobin level of Jordanian children is equal to a specific value, usually considered the general population mean or a clinically established threshold.
02

Define Null Hypothesis Meaning in Context

For the null hypothesis in this context, it would mean that there is no significant difference between the sample mean hemoglobin level of Jordanian children and the hypothesized population mean value of hemoglobin levels, suggesting that any observed difference is due to random variation or sampling error.
03

Understand the P-value

The \( P \)-value is the probability of observing data as extreme as, or more extreme than, the observed data, assuming that the null hypothesis is true. It helps determine the strength of the evidence against the null hypothesis.
04

Interpret P-value in Context

A \( P \)-value of 0.0016 indicates that there is only a 0.16% chance of observing a sample mean hemoglobin level as different from the hypothesized population mean as the one observed (11.3 g/dl), if the null hypothesis were true. This suggests strong evidence against the null hypothesis, leading one to consider it likely incorrect.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null Hypothesis
In hypothesis testing, the null hypothesis is a foundational concept. It is represented by the symbol \( H_0 \) and assumes that any observed effect or difference in data arises purely by chance. It essentially states that there is no effect or no difference from what has been assumed to be true.

For the study of Jordanian children and their hemoglobin levels, the null hypothesis could be articulated as the sample mean being equal to a known population mean. This population mean might reflect an average value obtained from broader studies of children, perhaps 12 grams per deciliter in this context. Therefore, the null hypothesis would be: **鈥淭he average hemoglobin level of Jordanian children is 12 g/dl.鈥**

This hypothesis works as a baseline or default assumption in statistical testing. All statistical tests aim to determine if there is enough evidence to reject this default assumption, **thus confirming the presence of a significant effect or difference.** If enough evidence is found, the null hypothesis is rejected; otherwise, it is not.
P-value
The P-value is a critical component of statistical hypothesis testing. It measures the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis. Specifically, the P-value indicates the probability of obtaining results as extreme as the observed results, given that the null hypothesis is correct.

A P-value can help researchers understand how "surprising" or "extreme" their data is under the null hypothesis. In the case of the Jordanian children's study, the P-value is 0.0016. This value means there is a 0.16% chance of obtaining a sample mean hemoglobin level as different from the hypothesized mean (perhaps 12 g/dl) as the one observed, if \( H_0 \) were true.

The lower the P-value, the stronger the evidence against \( H_0 \). A rule of thumb is that a P-value less than 0.05 indicates statistically significant results, prompting researchers to question the validity of \( H_0 \). In this example, a P-value of 0.0016 is considered extremely small, providing compelling evidence to reject the null hypothesis with confidence.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance is a key outcome in hypothesis testing. It helps researchers determine if the results they observe are meaningful or just due to random variations.

Once the P-value is calculated, it is compared to a pre-determined significance level, often denoted as \( \alpha \). Typical values for \( \alpha \) are 0.05 or 0.01. If the P-value is less than or equal to \( \alpha \), the results are deemed statistically significant. This threshold helps decide whether the null hypothesis should be rejected.

In the study of hemoglobin levels among Jordanian children, the P-value of 0.0016 would typically be compared to a significance level of 0.05. Since 0.0016 is much smaller than 0.05, the results are statistically significant.

This significant outcome suggests the observed difference in hemoglobin levels is likely not due to chance. It provides strong evidence against the null hypothesis. Thus, the findings can confidently support that the true average hemoglobin level in Jordanian children differs from the hypothesized value.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Vigorous exercise helps people live several years longer (on average). Whether mild activities like slow walking extend life is not clear. Suppose that the added life expectancy from regular slow walking is just 2 months. A statistical test is more likely to find a significant increase in mean life expectancy if (a) it is based on a very large random sample and a \(5 \%\) significance level is used. (b) it is based on a very large random sample and a \(1 \%\) significance level is used. (c) it is based on a very small random sample and a \(5 \%\) significance level is used. (d) it is based on a very small random sample and a \(1 \%\) significance level is used. (e) the size of the sample doesn't have any effect on the significance of the test.

Tests and CIs The \(P\) -value for a two-sided test of the null hypothesis \(H_{0}: \mu=10\) is 0.06 (a) Does the \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu\) include \(10 ?\) Why or why not? (b) Does the \(90 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu\) include \(10 ?\) Why or why not?

The French naturalist Count Buffon \((1707-1788)\) tossed a coin 4040 times. He got 2048 heads. That's a bit more than one-half. Is this evidence that Count Buffon's coin was not balanced? To find out, Luisa decides to perform a significance test. Unfortunately, she made a few errors along the way. Your job is to spot the mistakes and correct them. $$ \begin{array}{l} H_{0}: \mu>0.5 \\ H_{a}: \bar{x}=0.5 \end{array} $$ \(\bullet\quad\) \(10 \%: 4040(0.5)=2020\) and \(4040(1-0.5)=2020\) are both at least 10 . \(\bullet\quad\) Large Counts: There are at least 40,400 coins in the world. \(t=\frac{0.5-0.507}{\sqrt{\frac{0.5(0.5)}{4040}}}=-0.89 ; P\) -value \(=1-0.1867=0.8133\) Reject \(H_{0}\) because the \(P\) -value is so large and conclude that the coin is fair.

Refer to Exercise \(4 .\) For Yvonne's survey, 96 students in the sample said they rarely or never argue with friends. A significance test yields a \(P\) -value of 0.0291 . What conclusion would you make if \(\alpha=0.05\) ? If \(\alpha=0.01\) ? Justify your answers.

Multiple choice: Select the best answer for Exercises 95 to 102 . The reason we use \(t\) procedures instead of \(z\) procedures when carrying out a test about a population mean is that (a) \(z\) requires that the sample size be large. (b) \(z\) requires that you know the population standard deviation \(\sigma\). (c) \(z\) requires that the data come from a random sample or randomized experiment. (d) \(z\) requires that the population distribution be perfectly Normal. (e) \(z\) can only be used for proportions.

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