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91Ó°ÊÓ

A sample of teens A study of the health of teenagers plans to measure the blood cholesterol levels of an SRS of 13 - to 16 -year-olds. The researchers will report the mean \(\bar{x}\) from their sample as an estimate of the mean cholesterol level \(\mu\) in this population. Explain to someone who knows little about statistics what it means to say that \(\bar{x}\) is an unbiased estimator of \(\mu\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
An unbiased estimator, like \( \bar{x} \), means its average value across all samples equals the true population mean \( \mu \).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Unbiased Estimation

In statistics, an unbiased estimator is a statistic that accurately reflects the corresponding population parameter. In this case, the sample mean \( \bar{x} \) is used to estimate the population mean \( \mu \). Saying \( \bar{x} \) is an unbiased estimator means that if we were to take all possible samples of the same size from the population, the average of these sample means would equal the true population mean \( \mu \).
02

Sampling Process

When researchers select a Simple Random Sample (SRS) of teenagers, every possible group of 13-to-16-year-olds has an equal chance of being chosen. The sample mean \( \bar{x} \) is calculated from this sample. Due to the nature of SRS, \( \bar{x} \) is expected to neither overestimate nor underestimate the true mean \( \mu \), making it unbiased.
03

Law of Large Numbers

The Law of Large Numbers supports the idea of unbiased estimators. It states that as the sample size increases, the sample mean \( \bar{x} \) will get closer to the population mean \( \mu \). This implies that with a larger sample, \( \bar{x} \) will be a more accurate estimate of \( \mu \), but even with smaller samples, like the present case, \( \bar{x} \) remains an unbiased estimator.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Simple Random Sample
A Simple Random Sample (SRS) is a way of collecting a sample that ensures each individual in a population has an equal chance of being selected. This is crucial in studies because it helps minimize bias, making the results more reliable. For example, in the study of teenager's cholesterol levels, an SRS ensures that a representative group of 13-to-16-year-olds from the population is picked. By giving each teen an equal opportunity to be included in the study, the SRS technique helps the results reflect the true characteristics of the whole population.

Simple Random Sampling is essential for making valid statistical inferences, as it supports the creation of unbiased and fair estimations based on the sample collected. This method is one of the most effective ways to gather a sample that is representative of the larger population.
Sample Mean
The Sample Mean, denoted as \( \bar{x} \), is a critical concept in statistics that represents the average of the values in a sample. It is a summary statistic used to estimate the Population Mean \( \mu \). To calculate the sample mean, you add up all the individual values in the sample and divide by the number of values. For instance, in a study examining cholesterol levels in teens, if we have measurements for several individuals, we sum these values and divide by the number of teens in the sample to find \( \bar{x} \).

The sample mean serves a dual purpose. Firstly, it provides a concise snapshot of the typical value found in the sample. Secondly, it's used as an estimator of the population mean, giving insight into the average level across all teenagers. Since the sample mean is unbiased, it means that, on average, it will be equal to the population mean over many samples.
Population Mean
The Population Mean, symbolized as \( \mu \), is a fundamental term in statistics that signifies the average of a characteristic for the entire population. Unlike the sample mean, which is computed from a fraction of the population, the population mean is the average value you would get if you could include every single individual from the population.

In our cholesterol level study, \( \mu \) represents the actual average cholesterol level of all the 13-to-16-year-olds. This is the value researchers aim to estimate using their sample mean. When they report \( \bar{x} \) as an unbiased estimator of \( \mu \), they express confidence that the sample mean is a true reflection of the population mean, as long as the sample is collected properly and is sufficiently large.
Law of Large Numbers
The Law of Large Numbers is a key principle in probability and statistics that strengthens the concept of unbiased estimation. It states that as the number of observations in a sample increases, the Sample Mean \( \bar{x} \) will almost surely converge to the Population Mean \( \mu \). This law shows why larger samples provide more reliable estimates of the population characteristics.

In practical terms, if researchers increase the number of teenagers in their sample for cholesterol levels, the mean \( \bar{x} \) they calculate is likely to be very close to the true mean \( \mu \). However, this doesn't mean small samples are worthless; even in smaller samples, \( \bar{x} \) is still considered an unbiased estimator. The law highlights that increasing sample size generally enhances the precision and accuracy of statistical estimates.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

$$More on insurance An insurance company claims that in the entire population of homeowners, the mean annual loss from fire is \(\mu=\$250\) and the standard deviation of the loss is \(\sigma=\$ 1000 .\) The distribution of losses is strongly right-skewed: many policies have \(\$ 0\) loss, but a few have large losses. An auditor examines a random sample of 10,000 of the company's policies. If the company's claim is correct, what's the probability that the average loss from fire in the sample is no greater than \(\$ 275 ?\) Show your work.$$

Sharing music online (5.2) A sample survey reports that \(29 \%\) of Internet users download music files online, \(21 \%\) share music files from their computers, and \(12 \%\) both download and share music. \({ }^{5}\) Make a Venn diagram that displays this information. What percent of Internet users neither download nor share music files?

The number of hours a lightbulb burns before failing varies from bulb to bulb. The population distribution of burnout times is strongly skewed to the right. The central limit theorem says that (a) as we look at more and more bulbs, their average burnout time gets ever closer to the mean \(\mu\) for all bulbs of this type. (b) the average burnout time of a large number of bulbs has a sampling distribution with the same shape (strongly skewed) as the population distribution. (c) the average burnout time of a large number of bulbs has a sampling distribution with similar shape but not as extreme (skewed, but not as strongly) as the population distribution. (d) the average burnout time of a large number of bulbs has a sampling distribution that is close to Normal. (e) the average burnout time of a large number of bulbs has a sampling distribution that is exactly Normal.

Songs on an iPod David's iPod has about 10,000 songs. The distribution of the play times for these songs is heavily skewed to the right with a mean of 225 seconds and a standard deviation of 60 seconds. Suppose we choose an SRS of 10 songs from this population and calculate the mean play time \(\bar{x}\) of these songs. What are the mean and the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of \(\bar{x}\) ? Explain.

A newborn baby has extremely low birth weight (ELBW) if it weighs less than 1000 grams. A study of the health of such children in later years examined a random sample of 219 children. Their mean weight at birth was \(\bar{x}=810\) grams. This sample mean is an unbiased estimator of the mean weight \(\mu\) in the population of all ELBW babies, which means that (a) in all possible samples of size 219 from this population, the mean of the values of \(\bar{x}\) will equal 810 . (b) in all possible samples of size 219 from this population, the mean of the values of \(\bar{x}\) will equal \(\mu\). (c) as we take larger and larger samples from this population, \(\bar{x}\) will get closer and closer to \(\mu\). (d) in all possible samples of size 219 from this population, the values of \(\bar{x}\) will have a distribution that is close to Normal. (e) the person measuring the children's weights does so without any error.

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