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ITBS scores The Normal distribution with mean \(\mu=6.8\) and standard deviation \(\sigma=1.6\) is a good description of the Iowa Test of Basic Skills (ITBS) vocabulary scores of seventh-grade students in Gary, Indiana. Call the score of a randomly chosen student \(X\) for short. Find \(P(X \geq 9)\) and interpret the result.

Short Answer

Expert verified
There is an 8.46% chance that a randomly chosen student scores 9 or higher.

Step by step solution

01

Standardize the variable X

First, we need to convert the variable \(X\) into a standard normal variable using the formula \(Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}\). Here, \(\mu = 6.8\) and \(\sigma = 1.6\). We want to find \(P(X \geq 9)\), so we calculate \(Z\) for \(X = 9\): \[ Z = \frac{9 - 6.8}{1.6} \].
02

Calculate the Z-score

Perform the calculation to find the Z-score:\[ Z = \frac{9 - 6.8}{1.6} = \frac{2.2}{1.6} \approx 1.375 \].This means that a score of 9 is approximately 1.375 standard deviations above the mean.
03

Use the standard normal table

Look up the Z-score of 1.375 in the standard normal distribution table to find the probability that \(Z \leq 1.375\). The table gives \(P(Z \leq 1.375) \approx 0.9154\). This is the cumulative probability up to \(Z = 1.375\).
04

Find the required probability

We need \(P(X \geq 9)\), which is equivalent to \(P(Z \geq 1.375)\). Since \(P(Z \geq 1.375) = 1 - P(Z \leq 1.375)\), \[ P(Z \geq 1.375) = 1 - 0.9154 = 0.0846 \].
05

Interpret the result

The result \(P(X \geq 9) = 0.0846\) means there is an approximately 8.46% chance that a randomly chosen seventh-grade student from Gary, Indiana will score 9 or higher on the ITBS vocabulary test.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a fundamental concept in statistics that measures the amount of variability or spread in a set of data. In simpler terms, it tells us how much the individual data points in a dataset deviate from the mean (average) of the dataset. A lower standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to be closer to the mean, while a higher standard deviation shows that they are spread out over a wider range of values.
In the context of the ITBS scores, the standard deviation is given as \( \sigma = 1.6 \). This means that the vocabulary scores of seventh graders typically vary by about 1.6 points from the mean score. If the standard deviation were smaller, the scores would be clustered more tightly around the mean. Conversely, a larger standard deviation would imply a wider range of scores among the students.
Mean
The mean, often referred to as the average, is a measure of central tendency in statistics. It gives an indication of the middle point of a dataset and is calculated by adding up all the values and dividing by the number of values.
For the ITBS vocabulary scores, the mean is given as \( \mu = 6.8 \). This means that the average score of seventh-grade students on the test is 6.8. When we know the mean, it helps us understand what a typical score looks like and serves as a reference point for determining how individual scores compare to the majority of scores.
Mean is crucial when comparing individual scores, like a score of 9 in this example, to the rest of the scores. By computing how much higher or lower a specific score is than the mean, we gain insights into the performance level of the student relative to their peers.
Z-score
A Z-score is a statistic that tells us how many standard deviations a particular value is from the mean of a dataset. It is a way of standardizing scores on different scales to a common scale and is essential in finding probabilities in a normal distribution.
In this exercise, we calculated the Z-score for a score of 9 using the formula \( Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \), where \( X \) is the specific score, \( \mu \) is the mean, and \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation. For \( X = 9 \), the Z-score is approximately 1.375.
  • This Z-score tells us that a score of 9 is about 1.375 standard deviations above the average score of 6.8.
  • By determining the Z-score, we can use a standard normal distribution table to find probabilities related to this score, such as how likely it is for a score to be 9 or higher.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculation is a vital concept in statistics to measure how likely an event is to occur. To find the probability of a specific range of scores within a normal distribution, we often use Z-scores and standard normal distribution tables.
In this exercise, we needed to find the probability of a student scoring 9 or higher on the ITBS test, denoted as \( P(X \geq 9) \).
  • First, we determined the Z-score, which was approximately 1.375.
  • We looked up this Z-score in the standard normal table to find \( P(Z \leq 1.375) \), yielding a result of approximately 0.9154.
  • Since we want \( P(X \geq 9) \), we calculated it by subtracting the cumulative probability from 1, resulting in \( 1 - 0.9154 = 0.0846 \).
  • This tells us there's an 8.46% probability that a student scores 9 or higher, interpreting the rarity of such performance compared to the average.
Probability calculations like these are crucial in making informed decisions based on statistical data, whether in education, business, or science.

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