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Which of the following is the correct margin of error for a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for the difference in the proportion of male and female college students who worked for pay last summer? (a) \(2.576 \sqrt{\frac{0.851(0.149)}{550}+\frac{0.851(0.149)}{500}}\) (b) \(2.576 \sqrt{\frac{0.851(0.149)}{1050}}\) (c) \(2.576 \sqrt{\frac{0.880(0.120)}{550}+\frac{0.820(0.180)}{500}}\) (d) \(1.960 \sqrt{\frac{0.851(0.149)}{550}+\frac{0.851(0.149)}{500}}\) (e) \(1.960 \sqrt{\frac{0.880(0.120)}{550}+\frac{0.820(0.180)}{500}}\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
Option (c) is correct.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We need to find the correct formula for the margin of error of a 99% confidence interval for the difference between two proportions. Recall that the margin of error formula with proportions typically involves a critical value, a standard error term that involves the sample sizes, and the sample proportions.
02

Identify the Critical Value

For a 99% confidence interval, the critical value from the standard normal distribution (Z-score) is approximately 2.576.
03

Analyze the Provided Options

Check each option for consistency with the confidence level that requires a Z-score of 2.576 (not 1.960, which corresponds to a 95% confidence level). Consider options (a), (b), and (c) as potential candidates since they involve 2.576.
04

Validate the Correct Formula

For a difference in proportions, the standard error is calculated as:\[SE = \sqrt{\frac{p_1(1-p_1)}{n_1} + \frac{p_2(1-p_2)}{n_2}}\]Where \(p_1\) and \(p_2\) are the observed sample proportions, and \(n_1\) and \(n_2\) are the respective sample sizes.
05

Match Given Formulas to Standard Error

The correct choice should match the structure\[2.576 \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n_1} + \frac{p(1-p)}{n_2}}\]If the proportion values and the populations' variance terms correspond with two different observations. The proportion values in option (c) \(0.880\) and \(0.820\) with different operations reflect such behavior and thus calculate correctly for observed proportions.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Confidence Interval
A confidence interval is a range of values that is likely to contain a population parameter with a certain level of confidence. It's used to express the degree of uncertainty or certainty in a sampling statistic. For example, when we calculate a 99% confidence interval, we are stating that we are 99% confident that the true mean or proportion lies within this range.
These intervals are crucial in statistical inference because they convey how much sampling variability a measurement involves.
  • Higher confidence levels mean a wider confidence interval.
  • The width of the interval is inversely related to the sample size.
  • The level of confidence is also affected by the variability in the data.
Confidence intervals are constructed using the sample statistic plus or minus the margin of error.
Proportion Difference
The difference in proportions measures how two groups differ with respect to a certain characteristic. In the problem at hand, it involves comparing the proportions of male and female students working last summer.
To calculate the difference between two proportions, you subtract one proportion from another. The formula for calculating the difference in proportions is simple:
\[\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2\]
  • \(\hat{p}_1\) is the proportion of the first group.
  • \(\hat{p}_2\) is the proportion of the second group.
The importance of understanding the difference in proportions lies in knowing how groups compare. This can guide decision-making based on different demographic behaviors or outcomes. By comparing such differences, analysts can determine if there are significant distinctions between the groups.
Standard Error
Standard error is a vital concept in statistics, often denoted as SE. It measures the amount of variability or dispersion of a sampling distribution. In the context of comparing proportions, the standard error gives a sense of the uncertainty around the estimate of difference between two sample proportions.
Standard error for the difference in two proportions is detailed by the formula:
\[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{p_1(1-p_1)}{n_1} + \frac{p_2(1-p_2)}{n_2}} \]
  • \(p_1\) and \(p_2\) are the sample proportions.
  • \(n_1\) and \(n_2\) are the sample sizes.
By calculating this, one can determine the variability expected in the difference, which is critical when forming a confidence interval. A larger standard error would suggest greater variability, prompting a larger margin of error.
Z-score
A Z-score, also known as a standard score, measures the number of standard deviations a data point is from the mean. In the context of constructing confidence intervals, it serves as a critical value that corresponds to the desired confidence level.
For a 99% confidence interval, the Z-score is typically 2.576. This score represents how "wide" the interval needs to be to ensure confidence in encompassing the true population parameter.
  • High Z-scores translate into wider intervals, reflecting higher confidence levels.
  • Standard normal distribution tables or software are used to find Z-scores relevant to various confidence levels.
Understanding Z-scores is key to properly interpreting statistical results, as they directly affect the margin of error in confidence interval estimation.

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