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Young adults living at home A surprising number of young adults (ages 19 to 25 ) still live in their parents' homes. A random sample by the National Institutes of Health included 2253 men and 2629 women in this age group. \({ }^{11}\) The survey found that 986 of the men and 923 of the women lived with their parents. (a) Construct and interpret a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for the difference in the true proportions of men and women aged 19 to 25 who live in their parents' homes. (b) Does your interval from part (a) give convincing evidence of a difference between the population proportions? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 99% confidence interval calculation determines if there's a significant difference between the proportions. If the interval includes zero, there's no convincing evidence of a difference.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Parameters

Let \( p_1 \) be the proportion of young men living with their parents, and \( p_2 \) be the proportion of young women living with their parents. The goal is to find a confidence interval for the difference \( p_1 - p_2 \).
02

Calculate Sample Proportions

Calculate the sample proportions for men and women. For men, \( \hat{p}_1 = \frac{986}{2253} \), and for women, \( \hat{p}_2 = \frac{923}{2629} \).
03

Calculate the Standard Error

The standard error (SE) of the difference in proportions is given by: \[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2}} \] where \( n_1 = 2253 \) and \( n_2 = 2629 \).
04

Find the Critical Value

For a 99% confidence interval, the critical value (z*) for a normal distribution is approximately 2.576.
05

Construct the Confidence Interval

The confidence interval is given by: \[ (\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2) \pm z^* \times SE \] Substitute the values to calculate the interval.
06

Interpret the Confidence Interval

If the confidence interval includes zero, it suggests there is no significant difference in proportions of young men and women living at home. Calculate to check if the interval includes zero.
07

Analyze the Results

Discuss the implication of the interval: whether there is strong evidence to suggest a difference between the population proportions of men and women living with their parents.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Population Proportions
Understanding population proportions is essential in this scenario. Population proportion refers to the fraction of a population that has a particular attribute. In this context, we're examining the proportions of young men and women who live with their parents. Imagine we want to understand the whole population of young adults. We can't actually ask everyone, so we use a sample to estimate these proportions.
  • Men: Let's say the true proportion of men living with their parents is denoted as \( p_1 \).
  • Women: Similarly, for women, it's \( p_2 \).
Since we cannot directly measure these true values, we use sample data to make good guesses, which leads us nicely to our next section.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) is a concept that helps us understand how much variability there is in our sample statistic, compared to the actual population parameter we're trying to estimate. It's like a measure of uncertainty or precision in our estimate. In constructing a confidence interval for differences in proportions, we must calculate the standard error of these proportions. To find this:\[SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2}}\]Here, \(\hat{p}_1\) and \(\hat{p}_2\) are the sample proportions, while \(n_1\) and \(n_2\) are the sample sizes for men and women respectively. This formula helps to combine the variability of two estimates into one.
Critical Value
The critical value is a pivotal component when calculating confidence intervals. It helps determine the range in which the true difference between population proportions lies with a certain level of confidence. For a 99% confidence interval, we use a critical value corresponding to a normal distribution, which is approximately 2.576. This comes from standard statistical tables or software use. This critical value reflects the extreme percentile on either side of the normal distribution. If we imagine the entire bell curve of a normal distribution, '2.576' signifies how far we extend to capture the middle 99% of probable values. By multiplying this value with our standard error, we can create the range that captures the most likely differences between our proportions with 99% assurance.
Sample Proportions
Sample proportions are estimations based on our given sample, rather than the entire population. They serve as stand-ins for the true population proportions, which we can't always measure directly.In our exercise, for men, the sample proportion \(\hat{p}_1\) is calculated as:\[\hat{p}_1 = \frac{986}{2253}\]For women, it's:\[\hat{p}_2 = \frac{923}{2629}\]These figures represent the fraction of men and women in the samples who live at home. They help us estimate \(p_1\) and \(p_2\), the true proportions. By plugging these figures into our other calculations for SE and using the critical value, we move towards a solid confidence interval to understand the differences in these living situations.

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