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While he was a prisoner of war during World War II, John Kerrich tossed a coin 10,000times. He got5067heads. If the coin is perfectly balanced, the probability of a head is 0.5.

(a) Find the mean and the standard deviation of the number of heads in 10,000tosses, assuming the coin is perfectly balanced.

(b) Explain why the Normal approximation is appropriate for calculating probabilities involving the number of heads in 10,000tosses.

(c) Is there reason to think that Kerrich’s coin was not balanced? To answer this question, use a Normal distribution to estimate the probability that tossing a balanced coin 10,000times would give a count of heads at least this far from 5000(that is, at least5067 heads or no more than 4933 heads

Short Answer

Expert verified

(a)Mean=5000

Standard deviation=50

(b)np=5000≥5

n(1−p)=5000≥5

Thus, normal approximation could be used here.
(c) Since the probability is more than localid="1649834146840" 5%,there is no reason to suppose Kerrich's coin was not balanced using probability computation.

Step by step solution

01

Part (a) Step 1: Given information

Given in the question that, While he was a prisoner of war during World War II, John Kerrich tossed a coin 10,000times. He got 5067heads. If the coin is perfectly balanced, the probability of a head is 0.5. We need to find the mean and the standard deviation of the number of heads in10,000tosses.

02

Part (a) Step 2: Explanation

Given:

Number of trials (n)=10000

Probability of success (p)=0.5

The mean and standard deviation of a binomial distribution can be calculated using the following formula:

μ=n×p

σ=n×p×(1−p)

The mean and standard deviation are:

localid="1650045555230" μ=n×p=10000(0.5)=5000

localid="1650045569819" σ=n×p×(1−p)=10000(0.5)×(1−0.5)=50

Thus, the mean and standard deviation are 5000and 50.

03

Part (b) Step 1: Given information

Given in the question that, While he was a prisoner of war during World War II, John Kerrich tossed a coin 10,000 times. He got 5067 heads. If the coin is perfectly balanced, the probability of a head is 0.5.

04

Part (b) Step 2: Explanation

Here,

np=10000(0.5)=5000≥5

n(1−p)=10000(1−0.5)=5000≥5

As a result, normal approximation could be utilized.

05

Part (c) Step 1:Given information

Given in the question that, While he was a prisoner of war during World War II, John Kerrich tossed a coin 10,000 times. He got 5067 heads. If the coin is perfectly balanced, the probability of a head is0.5.

06

Part (c) Step 2: Explanation 

The probability is calculated as:

P(X≤4933orX≥5067)=Px−μσ≤4933−5000500cOrx−μσ≥5063−5000500

=P(Z≤−1.34orZ≥1.34)

=2×P(Z<−1.34)

=0.1802

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