Chapter 5: Q R5.1. (page 334)
Rainy days The TV weatherman says, 鈥淭here鈥檚 a 30% chance of rain tomorrow.鈥 Explain what this statement means.
- Use simulation to model chance behavior.
Short Answer
It will rain tomorrow.
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Chapter 5: Q R5.1. (page 334)
Rainy days The TV weatherman says, 鈥淭here鈥檚 a 30% chance of rain tomorrow.鈥 Explain what this statement means.
It will rain tomorrow.
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Get rich A survey of randomly selected young adults (aged to ) asked, 鈥淲hat do you think are the chances you will have much more than a middle-class income at age ?鈥 The two-way table shows the responses.
Choose a survey respondent at random.
(a) Given that the person selected is male, what鈥檚 the probability that he answered 鈥渁lmost certain鈥?
(b) If the person selected said 鈥渟ome chance but probably not,鈥 what鈥檚 the probability that the person is female? 
Treating low bone density (4.2) Fractures of the spine are common and serious among women with advanced osteoporosis (low mineral density in the
bones). Can taking strontium ranelate help? A large medical trial assigned 1649 women to take either strontium ranelate or a placebo each day. All of
the subjects had osteoporosis and had had at least one fracture. All were taking calcium supplements and receiving standard medical care. The response variables were measurements of bone density and counts of new fractures over three years. The subjects were treated at medical centers in different countries. Outline an appropriate design for this experiment. Explain why this is the proper design.
Box of chocolates According to Forrest Gump, 鈥淟ife is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you鈥檙e gonna get.鈥 Suppose a candy maker offers a
special 鈥淕ump box鈥 with chocolate candies that look the same. In fact, of the candies have soft centers and 6 have hard centers. Choose of the
candies from a Gump box at random.
(a) Draw a tree diagram that shows the sample space of this chance process.
(b) Find the probability that one of the chocolates has a soft center and the other one doesn鈥檛.
Teachers and college degrees Select an adult at random. Define events : a person has earned a college degree, and : person鈥檚 career is teaching. Rank the following probabilities from smallest to largest. Justify your answer.
Liar, liar! Sometimes police use a lie detector (also known as a polygraph) to help determine whether a suspect is telling the truth. A lie detector test isn鈥檛 foolproof鈥攕ometimes it suggests that a person is lying when they鈥檙e actually telling the truth (a 鈥渇alse positive鈥). Other times, the test says that the suspect is being truthful when the person is actually lying (a 鈥渇alse negative鈥). For one brand of polygraph machine, the probability of a false positive is .
(a) Interpret this probability as a long-run relative frequency.
(b) Which is a more serious error in this case: a false positive or a false negative? Justify your answer.
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