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Running red lights A random digit dialing telephone survey of880drivers asked, "Recalling the last ten traffic lights you drove through, how many of them were red when you entered the intersections?" Of the 880respondents, 171admitted that at least one light had been red.15

(a) Construct and interpret a95%confidence interval for the population proportion.

(b) Nonresponse is a practical problem for this survey-only 21.6%of calls that reached a live person were completed. Another practical problem is that people may not give truthful answers. What is the likely direction of the bias: do you think more or fewer than 171of the 880respondents really ran a red light? Why? Are these sources of bias included in the margin of error?

Short Answer

Expert verified

a)0.1682<p<0.2204

b) More than171respondents No.

Step by step solution

01

Given Information(Part a)

x=171n=880

02

Explanation (part a)

By dividing the complete number of wins by the sample size, the sample proportion is calculated:

p^=xn=1718800.1943

For confidence level1-=0.95, determine z/2=z0.025using table II (look up0.025in the table, the z-score is then the found z-score with opposite sign):

z/2=1.96

Then, calculate the margin of error as follow:

E=z/2p^(1-p^)n=1.960.1943(1-0.1943)8800.0261

As a result, the confidence interval becomes:

localid="1650283792947" 0.1682=0.1943-0.0261=p^-E<p<p^+E=0.1943+0.0261=0.2204

03

Given Information (part b)

Need to find the likely direction for the bias.

04

Explanation (part b)

Most people will not want to admit to driving through a red light and thus the proportion is likely higher, which means that we expect more than 171 respondents have actually driven through a red light.

These sources of bias are NOT sampling error and the margin of error includes ONLY sampling error, thus these sources of bias have not been included in the margin of error.

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