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A large clinical trial of the effect of diet on breast cancer assigned women at random to either a normal diet or a low-fat diet. To check that the random assignment did produce comparable groups, we can compare the two groups at the start of the study. Ask if there is a family history of breast cancer: 3396of the 19,541women in the low-fat group and 4929of the 29,294women in the control group said 鈥淵es.鈥 If the random assignment worked well, there should not be a significant difference in the proportions with a family history of breast cancer.

(a) How significant is the observed difference? Carry out an appropriate test to help answer this question.

(b) Describe a Type I and a Type II error in this setting. Which is more serious? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified

(a) There is not sufficient evidence to support the claim of a difference.

(b) Type II error is worse, because it would be assumed that the people were randomly assigned to each group and each group seems to be the same, while it is not the case.

Step by step solution

01

Part(a) Step 1: Given Information

Given

x1=3396

n1=19541

x2=4929

role="math" n2=29294

Determine the hypothesis

H0:p1-p2=0

Ha:p1-p20

02

Part(a) Step 2: Explanation

The sample proportion is the number of successes divided by the sample size:

p^1=x1n1=3396195410.174

p^2=x2n2=4929292940.168

p^p=x1+x2n1+n2=3396+492919541+292940.170

Determine the value of the test statistic:

localid="1650450817963" z=p^1-p^2p^p1-p^p1n1+1n2=0.174-0.1680.168(1-0.168)119541+1292941.74

The p-value is the probability of obtaining the value of the test statistic, or a value more extreme. Determine the p-value using table A:

localid="1650450836161" P=P(Z<-1.74orZ>1.74)=2P(Z<-1.74)=20.0409=0.0818

If the p-value is smaller than the significance level, reject the null hypothesis:

P>0.05Fail to rejectH0

03

Part(b) Step 1: given Information

Given

x1=3396

n1=19541

x2=4929

n2=29294

Determine the hypothesis

H0:p1-p2=0

Ha:p1-p20

04

Part(b) Step 2: Explanation

(b) Type I error: Reject the null hypothesis H0, when H0is true.

As a result, there is no significant difference between the two groups, even if it appears that there is. Type II error: Failing to reject the null hypothesisH0, when H0is false.

As a result, there is a considerable difference in both groups, even if it looks that there is none. As a result, while the design appears random, it is not.

The Type Il mistake is even more serious.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Suppose the true proportion of people who use public transportation to get to work in the Washington, D.C., area is 0.45In a simple random sample of 250people who work in Washington , what is the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of p^?

(a) 0.4975

(b)0.2475

(c) 0.0315

(d) 0.0009

(e) 0.617

In an experiment to learn whether Substance M can help restore memory, the brains of 20rats were treated to damage their memories. The rats were trained to run a maze. After a day, 10rats (determined at random) were given M and 7of them succeeded in the maze. Only 2of the 10control rats were successful. The two-sample z test for 鈥渘o difference鈥 against 鈥渁 significantly higher proportion of the M group succeeds鈥

(a) gives z=2.25,P<0.02

(b) gives z=2.60,P<0.005

(c) gives z=2.25,P<0.04but not <0.02

(d) should not be used because the Random condition is violated

(e) should not be used because the Normal condition is violated.

Coaching and SAT scores: Critique (4.1,4.3) The data you used in the previous two exercises came from a random sample of students who took the SAT twice. The response rate was 63%, which is pretty good for nongovernment surveys.

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A random sample of 200 New York State voters included 88 Republicans, while a random sample of 300 California voters produced 141 Republicans. Which of the following represents the 95%confidence interval that should be used to estimate the true difference in the proportions of Republicans in New York State and California?

(a) (0.44-0.47)1.96(0.44)(0.56)+(0.47)(0.53)200+300

(b) (0.44-0.47)1.96(0.44)(0.56)200+(0.47)(0.53)300

(c) (0.44-0.47)1.96(0.44)(0.56)200+(0.47)(0.53)300

(d)(0.44-0.47)1.96(0.44)(0.56)+(0.47)(0.53)200+300

(e) (0.44-0.47)1.96(045)(0.55)1200+1300

You can find the Excite Poll online at poll.excite.com. You simply click on a response to become part of the sample. The poll question for June 19,2005, was 鈥淒o you prefer watching first-run movies at a movie theater, or waiting until they are available on home video or pay-per-view?鈥 In all, 8896people responded, with only 12%(1118people) saying they preferred theaters. You can conclude that

(a) American adults strongly prefer home videos or pay-per-view.

(b) the high nonresponse rate prevents us from drawing a conclusion.

(c) the sample is too small to draw any conclusion.

(d) the poll uses voluntary response, so the results tell us little about all American adults.

(e) American adults strongly prefer seeing movies at a movie theater.

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