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Late shows Some TV shows begin after their scheduled times when earlier programs run late. According to a network’s records, about 3% of its shows start late. To find the probability that three consecutive shows on this network start on time, can we multiply (0.97)(0.97)(0.97)? Why or why not?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Yes, because the lateness of each show is independent, the probability is \(0.97^3\).

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Probability of a Single Show Starting on Time

The probability of a show starting on time is 97% since 3% of the shows are late. This can be written as a decimal probability, which is 0.97.
02

Determine the Independence of Events

Check if the probability of each show starting on time is independent. Since the lateness of one show doesn't affect another, these events can be considered independent.
03

Calculate the Probability of Three Consecutive Shows Starting on Time

Since the events are independent, we can multiply their probabilities. The probability that all three consecutive shows start on time is \(0.97 \times 0.97 \times 0.97 = 0.97^3\).
04

Compute the Exact Probability Value

Calculate \(0.97^3\): \[0.97^3 = 0.97 \times 0.97 \times 0.97 = 0.912673\] So, the probability that all three shows start on time is approximately 0.9127.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Independent Events
In probability, events are considered independent when the occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of the other. This means that each event occurs without any influence from the previous events. For example, consider flipping a coin. The result of each flip does not depend on any previous flips. The same is true for the TV show example. Each show starting on time or late is independent of the others. This makes probability calculations more straightforward, as each event can be treated as a separate occurrence.
  • An independent event does not have any impact on another.
  • Previous outcomes do not alter future probabilities.
Understanding the independence of each event is crucial for correct probability calculations, especially when dealing with multiple events like in the case of consecutive shows on a TV network starting on time.
Multiplication Rule
The multiplication rule is a fundamental principle used to find the probability of two or more events occurring simultaneously. When events are independent, their joint probability can be calculated by multiplying their individual probabilities. This rule simplifies the computation of complex probabilities when dealing with independent events.

In the scenario of three consecutive TV shows, knowing that each show starts independently on time simplifies our calculation. We can use the multiplication rule:
\[P(A \text{ and } B \text{ and } C) = P(A) \times P(B) \times P(C)\]
  • "And" in probability typically means multiplication.
  • The multiplication rule helps greatly in sequential probability problems.
For our TV show example: Multiply 0.97 for each of the three events (shows starting on time), leading to \(0.97 \times 0.97 \times 0.97 = 0.97^3\). This illustrates the power of the multiplication rule in probability calculations.
Consecutive Events
When we talk about consecutive events in probability, we refer to a sequence of events happening one after the other. In probability, determining the chance of consecutive events involves considering each event in the series and their joint probability. Since we are focused on independent events here, calculation becomes a simple multiplication of probabilities.

Let's consider the three consecutive shows. We want to know the probability that all three start on time. Since each event (show) is independent of the others, we multiply the probability of one show starting on time by itself twice for three consecutive events. This is different from dependent events, where past events might affect future ones.
  • Consecutive doesn't mean dependent; they can be independent.
  • Consecutive calculations often utilize the multiplication rule.
In the TV network context, finding probabilities for consecutive, independent events like the shows starting on time means raising the probability of a single event to the power of the number of consecutive events: \(0.97^3\).
Probability Calculation
The calculation of probability helps determine the likelihood of any given event. Probability values range from 0 to 1, where 0 signifies impossibility, and 1 means certainty. In most everyday situations, probabilities fall somewhere in between.

To get the probability of a particular sequence of independent events, like three consecutive shows starting on time, multiply the probability of each event occurring as long as they're independent. In the case of our example, the event of a show starting on time is 0.97. So for three shows, it's computed as:
\[P(\text{all three shows}) = 0.97 \times 0.97 \times 0.97\]
This simplifies to:
  • Calculate each part separately, then multiply.
  • Or simply raise to the power of the number of events, \(0.97^3\).
Hence, the probability of all three shows starting on time is approximately 0.9127, demonstrating a fairly high likelihood, thanks to the multiplication rule applied to independent events.

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